Antony Green: Double Dissolution?

Antony Green has posted a very good article on his blog regarding the likelihood of a double dissolution later this
year.

Of course there's been lots of speculation, but Antony Green really knows his stuff and explain everything very
clearly. It's a complex issue, but what he says makes lots of sense and is well worth reading.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/04/08/2867633.htm?site=thedrum


I'm certainly in favour of it, especially with Abbott now Opposition Leader. He's totally obstructionist, and you
can count on him to abuse the power the Coalition now has in the Senate regardless of the merits of any bill. And
a Senate where the Greens hold the balance of power can only be a good thing, IMHO.

for both Rudd and the rest of us.

A DD would be the best option for giving the Greens the balance of power. It has the chance of hurting the Coalition badly. While Labor may initially be hesitant, as mathematically they stand to gain more in the Senate in a half election, I think most sane Labor insiders would prefer to work with the Greens and diminish the Coalition's position than face a 3 year deadlock just to gain a few seats.

Interestingly, a DD is probably the only scenario which Fielding has a realistic chance of being re-elected. (which is why I believe the threat of a DD has not discouraged, if anything it's encouraged, him voting to cause a DD trigger...

Xenophon will be reelected in a DD, just like he would be in a normal half election in 2013 - he's very much a media darling populist - hopefully he won't drag a nutter in with him like he did in the upper house in the 2006 SA State Election!

My election date prediction: August 7

ADDED THOUGHT: A few questionable decisions by the Government (eg. the draconian anti-boat people measures) may give the Greens a bit more support in the Senate. Though it won't hurt Rudd in the House, if anything it will help them by keeping the xenophobic middle Australians in the fold (though the Greens will probably get a higher primary vote from the social liberals, those preferences will most certainly go to Labor over Abbott's holy crusade!)

I think a double dis will be very interesting. Even the Barney Joyce issue may be resolved.
I notice that the Libs have blown the "dog whistle" a couple of times. I doubt that the dogs will respond in enough numbers this time.