Exit Polls vs. the Actuals: Who do you believe-CNN or your lying eyes?

TruthIsAll

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Sat Nov-06-04 11:29 AM
Original message

Exit Polls vs. the Actuals: Who do you believe-CNN or your lying eyes?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2617461#

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Old and In the Way

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Sat Nov-06-04 11:47 AM
Response to Original message

1. You know what's really interesting about that data?

The average's for the states that had paper ballots still shows a slight preference for Bush.

The states that seem to have had the biggest support for Kerry are the ones that get the E-Vote machines. Do you think that is coincidental? I don't.

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GoSolar

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Sat Nov-06-04 12:15 PM
Response to Original message

2. Questions about graphs comparing exit polls and actual polls

How do you choose the zero value on your vertical axis? Is that the deviation from the expected voting percentage for Bush and Kerry? I understand the relative comparisons between Bush and Kerry, but not the absolute quantity that the vertical axis represents.

Apparently you chose these specific states because they were in play. You might want to include the states that were not in play as well. If these show wide random variations favoring neither Bush nor Kerry particularly, it would weaken your case; but if the other states showed no deviation from expected values, or deviations favoring Bush, it would strengthen your case.

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TruthIsAll

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Sat Nov-06-04 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. The zero value means NO DEVIATION.

TIA

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