2004 NEP: FIRST TIME VOTERS AND THOSE WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000

So just where did Bush get his 12 million votes?

Not from first time voters.
They voted for Kerry by 55%-43%

Not from those who didn't vote in 2000.
They voted Kerry by 57%-41%.

How the hell did Kerry lose the election?
He did better than Gore.
And Gore did better than Bush.


VOTES
(in millions)

.......................................DID NOT VOTE IN 2000
	2000	2004	Pct	Incr	% Gain	Votes	Diff	Diff%
Bush	50.455	62.08	50.73%	11.57	22.9%	8.52	3.051	26.4%	
Dem	50.992	59.07	48.28%	8.03	15.8%	11.85	-3.813	-47.5%	
Other	2.882	1.212	0.99%	-1.67	-57.9%	0.42	-2.086		
Total	104.33	122.27	100%	17.938	17.2%	20.37	-0.76		

NATIONAL EXIT POLL 			        WEIGHTED NATIONAL VOTE	
2000 PRES VOTE
	Vert	Votes	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
DID NOT VOTE
	17%	20.78	41%	57%	2%	7.0%	9.7%	0.3%

GORE	39%	47.68	8%	91%	1%	3.1%	35.5%	0.4%
BUSH	41%	50.12	90%	10%	0%	36.9%	4.1%	0.0%
Other	3%	3.66	41%	57%	2%	1.2%	1.7%	0.1%
Total	100%	122.27			      48.22%	50.99%	0.79%
						58.957	62.344	0.966
									

2004 FIRST TIME VOTERS
	11%	13.449	43%	55%	1.0%				
Total votes           5.78	7.40	0.13				

Based on the weighted exit poll percentages of those who DID
NOT VOTE IN 2000:
Kerry won the election by 50.99% to 48.22%									
The probability of Bush deviating from 48.22% to 50.73%:
0.0000004342	
The Odds: 1 in 	2,302,876						

CHANGES IN BUSH/KERRY VOTES FROM 2000:				
There were 122.267 million votes cast in 2004 			
There were 104.329 million votes cast in 2000

Bush gained 11.57 million votes from 2000.				
Kerry gained 8.04 million votes from Gore's total.								

2004 VOTERS WHO DID NOT VOTE IN 2000:
Seventeen (17%) did not vote in the 2000 election.
They voted for Kerry by 57%-41%

Based on the National Exit Poll, Bush received 8.44 million
(41%) of the votes from those who did not vote in 2000.

Based on the NEP, Kerry received 11.73 million (57%) votes
from those who did not vote in 2000.


FIRST TIME VOTERS IN 2004:
Eleven (11%) were FIRST TIME VOTERS

Bush received 5.73 million (43%) of first time voters
Kerry received 7.32 million (55%) of first time voters