Naysayers, its time to take your strawmen elsewhere.

I calculated the ODDS of the exit poll deviations as 1 in a
trillion.
In their latest paper, US Count Votes (USCV) calculates it as
1 in 10 million.

HOWEVER, THE ANALYSES ARE IN ESSENTIAL AGREEMENT. 
THE ODDS ARE "ASTRONOMICAL".

My probability could very well be too low. But based on the
data and calculated state MOE's, the probability calculation
is correct.

The fantastic USCV paper does not provide the actual exit poll
and final vote deviations used in the analysis (only the
results).

This post seeks to determine possible reasons for the
discrepancy in probabilities. In fact, they are much closer
than they might appear, as shown below.  

If anyone with statistical expertise is reading this, please
jump in with comments. MathGuy, are you there?

USCV (Freeman)  and I use slightly different methods (MOE
deviations vs. t-statistcs):
-I calculated that 15 states exceeded the MOE in favor of
Bush, each with 2.5% probability.
-USCV calculated that 7 of 50 states have t-values below -2.7,
each with less than 1% probability.

We both use the Binomial probability function. 
How did USCV calculate the exit poll deviations?

I do not have access to the USCV exit poll vs. vote deviation
data.
My calculations are based on exit poll data downloaded by
Simon (2-party adjusted) vs. the final vote. I use the
deviations and the MOE, calculated from the exit poll sample
size.

If the USCV deviation data differs from mine, that could
account for the discrepancy between their calculated odds (1
in 10 million) and mine (1 in 1 trillion).

From the bottom of Page 2 in the USCV report:
"Seven of fifty states have t values less than -2.7,
meaning that each of them has LESS than a 1% probability of
having the reported difference between exit polls and election
results occurring by chance. The binomial probability that 7
of 50 should be so skewed is LESS than 1 in 10 million. A full
comparison of the exit polls with the null distribution via a
Shapiro-Wilk test yields a probability that is astronomically
small"	

The seven (7) individual probabilities are not given. 	
We only know that EACH is less than 1%.	

USCV states that "a full comparison of the exit polls
with the NULL distrution (blue curve) via the Shapiro-Wilk
test yields a probability that is ASTRONOMICALLY small".
Is the probability in comparison to the 1 in 10 million odds
they give? Or is it the same?Would the test yield
probabilities closer to 1 in a trillion?

Assuming, conservatively, a 1% probability for each of the
seven (7)states (we know it is less), then the probability is
given by:	

Prob = 1 - BINOMDIST(6,50,0.01,TRUE)	
Probability  =	6.85284E-07
so the odds are 1 in 1,459,249.

Since the probabilities are LESS than 1%, that could account
for the difference between the above 1 in 1.45 million odds
and the "less than 1 in 10 million" which they
claim.

In fact, if 1 state were added to the seven, the odds would
become:  1 in 27 million.
TWO additional states (a total of nine) would lower the odds
to:
1 in 14 BILLION.

Here is a probability table for various N:

St      Probability	 Odds
N	N > "T"	  T < (-2.7)
5	0.000145689	 6,864
6	1.08968E-05	 91,770
7	6.85284E-07	 1,459,249

The probability rapidly declines as N increases…		

8	3.69316E-08	 27,077,101
10	7.13284E-11	 14,019,663,602
11	2.6098E-12	 383,170,938,646
12	8.57092E-14	 11,667,356,547,592
13	2.88658E-15	 346,430,740,566,961
14	0	           #DIV/0!
		
.......................................................

My analysis is based on the Exit Poll margin of error.		
N = 15 of 50 states exceeded the MOE (each with .025
probability) in favor of Bush. NONE did so for Kerry.		

the probability for at least 15 states to exceed the MOE is:
Prob = 1-BINOMDIST(14,50,0.025,TRUE)= 9.166E-13	
The odds are 1 in 1,090,988,281,824	

     Probability	 Odds
N	N > MOE	 N > MOE
5	0.008132778	 123
6	0.001510773	 662
7	0.000237311	 4,214
8	3.2064E-05	 31,188
10	3.92003E-07	 2,551,003
11	3.61654E-08	 27,650,776
12	2.98705E-09	 334,778,890
13	2.22187E-10	 4,500,703,425
14	1.49595E-11	 66,847,251,840
15	9.166E-13	 1,090,988,281,824