PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS

TruthIsAll

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Sat Feb-19-05 11:12 AM
Original message

PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS

Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM by TruthIsAll

The weighted national pre-election poll average (50.51%)
matched the exit poll average (50.37%). 
That's 1/7 of one percent.

Total percentages are based on the weighted average.
Kerry's actual 2-party vote: 48.76% = 59028/121056

Votes and percentages are 2-party based.
Vote percentages are shown for Kerry. 
Bush% = 100 - Kerry%.

Pre: final pre-election state poll average.
Exit: exit poll 2-party percentages based on data downloaded
by Simon at 12:22am Nov.3.

P/A = 100*Pre/Actual
E/A = 100*Exit/Actual

Prob: Probability of deviation
P/A Prob = pre-election poll to actual 
E/A Prob = exit poll to actual 

Based on the pre-election polls:  
41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush
Based on the exit polls:  
43 out of 51 deviated to Bush

								Pre/	Exit/	Prob	Prob	Favor	Favor
	Vote	Pre	Exit	Act	Pre	Exit	Act	Act	Act	P/A	E/A	Pre	Exit

Total	121056	50.37%	50.51%	48.76%	60979	61144	59028	103.3%	103.6%	14.1%	12.2%	41B	43B

				
AK	302	34.48%	40.14%	36.77%	104	121	111	94%	109%	6.3%	1.2%	K	B
AL	1870	40.63%	41.08%	37.10%	760	768	694	109%	111%	0.9%	0.4%	B	B
AR	1043	50.00%	46.60%	45.07%	522	486	470	111%	103%	0.1%	15.4%	B	B
AZ	1998	47.37%	46.93%	44.72%	946	938	894	106%	105%	3.9%	7.1%	B	B
CA	12255	53.85%	55.73%	55.04%	6599	6830	6745	98%	101%	21.3%	32.3%	K	B

CO	2103	49.47%	49.07%	47.63%	1040	1032	1002	104%	103%	11.0%	16.9%	B	B
CT	1551	55.32%	58.47%	55.27%	858	907	857	100%	106%	48.8%	1.6%	B	B
DC	224	87.64%	91.63%	90.52%	197	205	203	97%	101%	2.7%	22.9%	K	B
DE	372	54.22%	58.44%	53.83%	202	217	200	101%	109%	39.9%	0.1%	B	B
FL	7548	51.55%	49.93%	47.48%	3891	3769	3584	109%	105%	0.3%	5.1%	B	B

GA	3280	44.68%	43.11%	41.65%	1466	1414	1366	107%	104%	2.2%	16.5%	B	B
HI	426	50.00%	53.32%	54.40%	213	227	232	92%	98%	0.2%	23.5%	K	K
IA	1494	53.19%	50.67%	49.66%	795	757	742	107%	102%	0.9%	25.0%	B	B
ID	590	33.71%	33.33%	30.68%	199	197	181	110%	109%	2.2%	3.8%	B	B
IL	5239	56.25%	57.13%	55.21%	2947	2993	2892	102%	103%	24.3%	10.0%	B	B

IN	2448	40.21%	40.97%	39.58%	984	1003	969	102%	104%	33.7%	17.7%	B	B
KS	1171	38.14%	34.60%	37.13%	447	405	435	103%	93%	25.0%	4.6%	B	K
KY	1782	41.05%	40.76%	39.99%	732	726	713	103%	102%	24.0%	30.6%	B	B
LA	1922	45.45%	44.50%	42.67%	874	855	820	107%	104%	3.2%	11.2%	B	B
MA	2875	70.33%	66.46%	62.74%	2022	1911	1804	112%	106%	0.0%	0.7%	B	B

MD	2359	55.67%	57.04%	56.57%	1313	1346	1334	98%	101%	27.5%	37.6%	K	B
ME	727	56.18%	54.83%	54.58%	408	399	397	103%	100%	14.4%	43.4%	B	B
MI	4793	53.61%	52.55%	51.73%	2569	2519	2479	104%	102%	10.5%	29.1%	B	B
MN	2792	54.17%	54.61%	51.76%	1512	1525	1445	105%	106%	5.4%	2.9%	B	B
MO	2715	47.31%	47.47%	46.38%	1284	1289	1259	102%	102%	26.7%	23.3%	B	B

MS	1130	45.16%	43.20%	40.49%	511	488	458	112%	107%	0.1%	3.6%	B	B
MT	440	38.71%	39.28%	39.50%	170	173	174	98%	99%	70.1%	44.2%	K	K
NC	3487	48.45%	47.31%	43.76%	1690	1650	1526	111%	108%	0.1%	0.9%	B	B
ND	308	38.89%	33.58%	36.09%	120	103	111	108%	93%	3.1%	4.7%	B	K
NE	767	34.41%	36.54%	33.15%	264	280	254	104%	110%	20.1%	1.2%	B	B

NH	672	50.00%	55.49%	50.69%	336	373	341	99%	109%	32.3%	0.1%	K	B
NJ	3581	54.35%	56.13%	53.37%	1946	2010	1911	102%	105%	25.7%	3.3%	B	B
NM	748	50.00%	51.34%	49.60%	374	384	371	101%	104%	39.5%	12.3%	B	B
NV	816	50.00%	50.66%	48.68%	408	413	397	103%	104%	19.0%	9.4%	B	B
NY	7277	59.38%	63.97%	59.29%	4321	4655	4314	100%	108%	47.7%	0.1%	B	B

OH	5599	51.55%	52.06%	48.94%	2886	2915	2740	105%	106%	4.1%	1.9%	B	B
OK	1464	31.46%	34.73%	34.43%	461	508	504	91%	101%	2.4%	42.1%	K	B
OR	1810	53.19%	51.22%	52.11%	963	927	943	102%	98%	23.5%	27.8%	B	K
PA	5732	52.63%	54.41%	51.26%	3017	3119	2938	103%	106%	18.0%	1.8%	B	B
RI	429	60.87%	64.24%	60.58%	261	275	260	100%	106%	42.3%	0.7%	B	B

SC	1600	43.30%	45.78%	41.36%	693	732	662	105%	111%	9.9%	0.2%	B	B
SD	382	44.68%	37.42%	39.09%	171	143	149	114%	96%	0.0%	13.3%	B	K
TN	2421	48.98%	41.15%	42.81%	1186	996	1036	114%	96%	0.0%	13.4%	B	K
TX	7360	38.54%	36.84%	38.49%	2837	2711	2833	100%	96%	48.6%	13.5%	B	K
UT	905	25.81%	29.93%	26.65%	234	271	241	97%	112%	28.6%	1.4%	K	B

VA	3172	47.96%	47.96%	45.87%	1521	1521	1455	105%	105%	8.1%	8.1%	B	B
VT	305	56.99%	65.69%	60.30%	174	201	184	95%	109%	1.4%	0.0%	K	B
WA	2815	54.17%	55.07%	53.65%	1525	1550	1510	101%	103%	36.4%	17.2%	B	B
WI	2968	53.68%	50.21%	50.19%	1593	1490	1490	107%	100%	1.0%	49.4%	B	B
WV	750	48.42%	45.19%	43.52%	363	339	327	111%	104%	0.1%	13.2%	B	B
WY	238	30.85%	32.07%	29.69%	74	76	71	104%	108%	21.9%	5.6%	B	B
													
Avg	121056	48.57%	48.84%	47.09%	60979	61144	59028	103.4%	103.8%	16.3%	9.7%	B	B
Median		50.00%	49.07%	47.48%				102.7%	103.9%	4.6%	9.4%	B	B

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papau

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Sat Feb-19-05 11:21 AM
Response to Original message

1. And the GOP resist vote reform - it is good not to feel quilty I guess?

Excellent work as always TIA.

Amazing how the GOP has told the media to drop it.

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xcrazynickx

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Sun Mar-06-05 10:18 PM
Response to Reply #1

11. No Recounts

I think that they shouldn't have recounts on elections be cause you will never get the same answer so who ever wins the first one should be the president.(I HATE BUSH)

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newyawker99

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Mon Mar-21-05 11:49 AM
Response to Reply #11

22. Hi xcrazynickx!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

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TruthIsAll

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Mon Mar-07-05 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #1

18. THE GRAPH

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TruthIsAll

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Tue Apr-26-05 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #1

23. COMPARE THIS ONE TO THE REGIONAL VS. NEP CONFIRMATION

Here the weighting is based on the Kerry state exit poll percentage applied to the total state vote, not by reweighting based on the number of state exit poll respondents.

They match within 0.4%

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TruthIsAll

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Tue Apr-26-05 07:31 PM
Response to Reply #1

24. Fixed the typo: Exit poll = 50.51%...

Edited on Tue Apr-26-05 07:51 PM by TruthIsAll

The weighted national pre-election poll average (50.51%)
matched the state exit poll weighted average (50.37%).

It should be:
The weighted national pre-election poll average (50.37%)
matched the state exit poll weighted average (50.51%).

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TruthIsAll

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Sat Feb-19-05 12:38 PM
Response to Original message

2. All probabilities assume a 3% MOE (conservative).

Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:53 PM by TruthIsAll

Actual calculated exit poll MOE's range up from 1.84% (Fl) and are mostly in the 2.0-2.5% range.
Pre-election poll MOE's range from 2.5%-4.0%.

Based on the actual exit poll MOE, the probability for FL is actually closer to 0.4%. Similar adjustments apply to the other battleground states. These have been detailed in other postings.

The purpose of this post was to illustrate how close the pre-election polls came to the exit polls.

The MOE is assumed a constant 3.0% across all states for simplicity and conservatism.

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TruthIsAll

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Sat Feb-19-05 09:23 PM
Response to Original message

3. So if the state exit polls agreed with the pre-election polls and...

Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 09:28 PM by TruthIsAll

if the National Exit poll agreed with the average of 18 final pre-election corporate/independent polls (adjusted for the undecided vote breaking 2-1 for Kerry)... are we supposed to believe that all FOUR sets of polls, in which a total of over 150,000 individuals were polled (50000+ 18000+73000 +13,047) were all off due to bad polling on the part of the best pollsters in the world - and that Bush/Rove didn't cheat?

Come on.

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Aussie_expat

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Sat Feb-19-05 10:32 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. If ..............

Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 10:36 PM by Aussie_expat

You hadn't been showing Kerry ahead for the last 12 month's in every "TIA" skewed poll you could invent then I would consider trying to decipher your "exit poll" gibberish.

Beyond the "TIA" statistic of the day, what's the use of your constant posting of meaningless spreadsheets?

We all know that the election results are skewed in Bush's favor. You need to understand that but by adding your "personal" weightings as you see fit to each and every poll you dilute our collective message.

Mistwell say's:
"The longer this myth that "The exit polls are almost never wrong" is perpetuated, the longer it will be until we spend our time and resources on proof of actual fraud rather than easily-disproven theoretical fraud."

The key statement being "............rather than easily-disproven theoretical fraud."

edit to add quote

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TruthIsAll

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Sun Feb-20-05 01:18 AM
Response to Reply #4

5. Your statement is gibberish. Back it up with facts. What weightings?

Edited on Sun Feb-20-05 02:10 AM by TruthIsAll

You don't know what you are talking about.

Be specific.
You have always been one of the naysayers.
Your group is on the verge of extinction.
You have nothing left.

I have shown that the exit polls were right on the money in 2000 (yes, even in FL) and in 1996.

What have you contributed?

What are your thoughts about Freeman and the latest uscountvotes.org paper in which they thoroughly debunk Mitofsky's reluctant Bush responder theory? The contributors are Math/Stat PhD's from the best universities, some in the red states. I have always maintained, and the professors agree, that the exit polls were right and the vote counts wrong.

Do you agree? If so, what is the problem?

If you don't agree, what is your problem? Who agrees with you?
The Mystery Pollster?

As for your 12 month comment: My pre-election model projections were right on the money. I had Kerry winning 51.8-48.2% in the 2-party vote - THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION.

THE STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS CONFIRMED THAT I WAS RIGHT.

NOW, AUSSIE, WHERE WAS YOUR PROJECTION? YOU HAVE A LOT OF CHUTZPA TO CRITICIZE, ESPECIALLY SINCE MY PROJECTION HAS BEEN PROVEN TO BE CORRECT.

Let's face it.
You have run out of strawmen.

It's your last gasp.
OK, gasp.

I seem to recall another "aussie" poster on DU.
Are you guys related?

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TruthIsAll

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Thu Mar-17-05 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #4

19. Another "meaningless" TIA spreadsheet "statistic of the day"

Enjoy.

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Bill Bored

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Fri Mar-18-05 12:01 PM
Response to Reply #19

20. Ah, I was asking for this in another thread.

Edited on Fri Mar-18-05 12:04 PM by Bill Bored

<http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345183>

So what you're saying (or I am) is that the aggregate of the state exit polls matches not only the pre-election state polls, but also the 13,047 national exit poll, when it comes to estimating the popular vote percentage. Right, TIA?

What was the 13,047 2-party Kerry percentage again?

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TruthIsAll

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Fri Mar-18-05 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #20

21. Kerry 2-prty vote in 13047 exit poll was 51.45% within .43% of elec. model

Edited on Fri Mar-18-05 12:55 PM by TruthIsAll

in which he won 50.76%, was 50.76/(50.76+47.90) = 51.45%. This is about 1% higher than the pre-election poll average, however... the pre-election polls did NOT include an undecided voter allocation factor. And we know that the undecideds always go to the challenger.

In the election model, I projected that Kerry would get 51.80%, assuming he would win 75% of the undecided vote. That's within 0.35% of the 13047 preliminary exit poll weighted average.

The 13047 exit poll said that Kerry won 60% of the undecided.
That brings it within 0.43% of the final pre-election polls, when adjusted for a 60% undecided allocation.

Here are the Kerry 2-party final pre-election forecasts, assuming a 60% undecided voter allocation. Check the the first screen of the election model site for a detailed sensitivity analysis, based on various undecided allocation assumtions:

Election Model 2-party (for 60% allocation):
State polling model: 51.02%
National (18) polling model: 50.73%

Preliminary (13047) 2-party exit poll: 51.45%%

Check out the preliminary and final exit poll analyses here:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x340029

Check out my projection model here:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

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Wilms

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Sun Feb-20-05 07:37 AM
Response to Original message

6. kick n/t

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FogerRox

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Sun Feb-20-05 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #6

7. Folks --let me put it this way

Thru out history an Incumbant gets his MAy June approval rating in NOv. Bush was at 44%--he should have got 44% in Nov. WAr time--
Peace time---dont matter.
When I was recruited by Ted Carter for Broward county, the one thing he was stressing about was massive fraud. We knew Kerry should win by 10% in a fair and legal election.

TIA --- is that kinda what you're trying to asy --but in a different way---? LOL

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berniew1

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Sun Feb-20-05 07:24 PM
Response to Original message

8. What is source for this data? URL?

What is the data set this comes from?
What credibility does the source have?

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TruthIsAll

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Sun Feb-20-05 10:00 PM
Response to Reply #8

10. This is the Simon download of 12:22 am Nov.3

Edited on Sun Feb-20-05 10:07 PM by TruthIsAll

Pre-election polls were from a variey of sources: Zogby, ARG, etc.
Sorry, no URL.
See electoral-vote.com

Exit poll data is the Simon download from Nov.3, 12:22 am, as reported by SCOOP.

The final actual vote data is public info available on many sites.

All data converted to 2-party percentages.

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Peace Patriot

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Sun Feb-20-05 09:35 PM
Response to Original message

9. This particular data is important (if it matters at all to those who...

Edited on Sun Feb-20-05 09:39 PM by Peace Patriot

...merely naysay) because it adds to the growing list of types of evidence showing that Kerry won and Bush lost:

Gore 2000 repeat voters + huge new Dem voter registration + huge jump of Nader voters to Kerry = a 4 to 8 million vote Kerry margin that just somehow disappeared (or should I say "was 'disappeared'"?) on election day.

The national exit poll - Kerry won.

The state exit polls - Kerry won.

Impossible skew to Bush in the official results vs. the exit polls, unaccountable by any conceivable bias in the polls--conservative odds of 1 in 10 million against it (confirmed by numerous Ph.D.'s and expert statisticians putting their reputations on the line to say so publicly in peer reviewed reports).

Bush's approval ratings prior to the election (dismal - hovering around 50% - not possible for a sitting president to be elected with such low approval ratings).

Bush's approval ratings today (dismal - hovering around 50% - dipping to 48% on his Inauguration Day!).

Americans' great disapproval of Bush's major policies (such as Iraq war and torture--57% to 63% disapproval, now, today).

The odds against all touchscreens changing Kerry votes to Bush votes, and none the other way around.

Skew to Bush in electronic voting vs. other methods in NC.

Skew to Bush in electronic voting vs. other methods in FLA.

Skew to Bush in electronic voting vs. other methods at the precinct level (recent report prepared by nine Ph.D.'s in statistics and mathematics).

All reported vote suppression incidents being perpetrated by Republican election officials and Republican operatives against Democratic voters, mostly minorities. One investigator estimates that 3 million black votes were suppressed.

57,000 incidents of machine malfunction or vote suppression lodged with Congress--virtually all favoring Bush and hurting Kerry.

Secret source code in central vote tabulators (proprietary info. controlled by BushCon companies), no paper trail, and no recount or audit possible, in a third of the voting machines in the country--all conditions for fraud insisted upon by Republican politicians and electronic voting machine company salesmen.

Kerry won. Bush lost. Now confirmed by yet another type of data.

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Fly by night

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Sun Mar-06-05 10:42 PM
Response to Original message

12. What polls were used to comprise the pre-election state averages?

TIA,

Which polls did you use to come up with your pre-election polls' state average? That would be of interest to us here in Tennessee, as our pre-election polls are far away from both the exit polls and the "reported" vote.

I still would be very interested to know which TN precincts were exit-polled. If that ever becomes public information, please let me know. It would notbe hard for us to characterize their representativeness, given some idea of where they were.

Thanks as always for your good work.

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TruthIsAll

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Mon Mar-07-05 12:59 AM
Response to Reply #12

13. I don't have the state by state breakdown, but mostly Zogby, ARG

and also...
Survey USA
Rasmussen
Gallup

ARG and/or Zogby for TN.

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yurbud

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Mon Mar-07-05 02:26 AM
Response to Original message

14. put up excel or whatever file and I'll make a cool chart of this.

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Fly by night

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Mon Mar-07-05 09:53 AM
Response to Reply #14

15. Great!! And when you do, post it here and please email me the latest

I think you still have my email address. Thanks kindly.

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TruthIsAll

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Mon Mar-07-05 11:06 AM
Response to Reply #15

16. I'll post a graph tonight.. n/t

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intensitymedia

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Mon Mar-07-05 11:35 AM
Response to Original message

17. Great work as always - what should we do with it? N/t

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