The Oregon Smoking Gun - Democratic Underground

TruthIsAll

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Fri Mar-04-05 09:47 AM
Original message

The Oregon Smoking Gun

Edited on Fri Mar-04-05 09:54 AM by TruthIsAll

Eight (8) states deviated to Kerry from the exit poll to the vote (all under the MOE).

These are the states with the approximate shift in thousands of votes.
1 MT 1
2 HI 4
3 SD 6
4 ND 8
5 OR 14
6 KS 28
7 TN 39
8 TX 122

Oregon was the ONLY battleground state of the eight - and the ONLY state with 100% paper ballots (by mail). The other seven, except for HI, were ALL solid Red states.

What is the probability that ALL (20) battleground states without 100% voter verifiable paper ballots would shift to Bush, regardless of percentage change?

Prob = 1/(1/2)^20 = 1 in 1,048,576

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rodeodance

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Fri Mar-04-05 09:53 AM
Response to Original message

1. dah......

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Ready4Change

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Fri Mar-04-05 10:42 AM
Response to Original message

2. What was the Bush shift in the battle ground states?

Can that be shown in the same fashion? ie State abbreviation, shift in thousands?

Thanks.

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TruthIsAll

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Fri Mar-04-05 11:16 AM
Response to Reply #2

3. State deviations in thousands (aprox)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x320698

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Ready4Change

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Fri Mar-04-05 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #3

6. Thanks. (Yet I ask for more)

Is there a list of this in percentages? Namely, to see which states were outside the exit polls margins of error?

Continued thanks. I know this stuff has probably been posted many times since the elections, but I've lost track of it all.

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TruthIsAll

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Sat Mar-05-05 09:10 PM
Response to Reply #6

7. Here it is...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x330449

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tex-wyo-dem

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Fri Mar-04-05 11:43 AM
Response to Original message

4. To me, this IS one of many smoking guns...

Edited on Fri Mar-04-05 11:44 AM by tex-wyo-dem

"Oregon was the ONLY battleground state of the eight - and the ONLY state with 100% paper ballots (by mail)."

Another is the fact that 99% (not sure of the actual percentage, but it's up there) of the reported voting problems were in favor of **.

Simply put, these CANNOT be random problems unless you believe this election had anomalies that were statistically like one person winning the lottery several times in one day.

Impossible, unless the results were purposefully manipulated, which they were.

On edit: Keep up the great work, TIA!

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spooked911

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Fri Mar-04-05 02:21 PM
Response to Original message

5. How do they do exit polling in Oregon if it is all vote by mail?

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zimba

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Sun Mar-06-05 12:36 AM
Response to Reply #5

9. Not all by mail delivery, but not sure how

I vote in Oregon and dropped my vote off at the local drop off place. You have a choice to return your ballot by mail or drop it off the day before or on election day. I dont trust the mail to be delivered 100% of the time so I drove mine in and so did alot of people, so exit polling could still have taken place, though it didnt where I vote.

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Igel

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Sun Mar-06-05 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #5

10. It was done entirely by phone.

They used the same process in other states to account for voters that didn't vote in person or on election day.

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autorank

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Sat Mar-05-05 10:46 PM
Response to Original message

8. TIA is LORD!

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