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central scrutinizer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 05:23 PM
Original message
Florida spreadsheet and scatterplots
This has probably been posted before, but just in case:

http://ustogether.org/election04/FloridaDataStats.htm

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DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 05:28 PM
Response to Original message
1. Here's some text to explain the significance of the dots
If there is a strong relation between voting and registration, then we expect most data points in the right-top (Republican Registration and Voting) and the left-bottom (Democratic Registration and Voting) quadrants. This is the case for the E-Touchscreen voting machines. If a voting machine produces random errors, then we expect data points in the left-top (Democratic Registration and Republican Voting) and the right bottom (Republican Registration and Democratic Voting) quadrants. We see a lot of data points in the left-top quadrant, but not in the right-bottom quadrant. This seems to suggest a biased error towards Republican vote counting in counties with strong Democratic Party Registration.
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ParanoidPat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. I'd just love to extrapolate the numbers as an extended R&R study.......
.......where the Diebold machines are the 'tool', the voters are the 'operators' and the various ballot templates or races are the 'devices under test'. :evilgrin:

It would certainly help to nail down the 'uncertainty' factor when all of the numbers are analyzed. :)
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bobbyboucher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
2. An awful lot of red scatter on table one.
Clue me in, does this say there is a huge discrepency favoring Bush in the Op-Scan?

And we thought it was going to be touch screen.
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ParanoidPat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:04 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Yes, and in all fairness both Bev and Andy have been warning.......
.......that the Central Tabulator was the easiest and most likely place to expect fraud. :)

The data seems to suggest that they were right once again. :toast:
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bobbyboucher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. But what about the paper? Doesn't this mean
that the truth is out there on the ballots? I voted opti-scan in Cali and there is a ballot.
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ParanoidPat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:50 PM
Response to Reply #5
7. Yes it does!
I voted in Santa Cruz County on Mark-A-Vote Optical Scan ballots. :)
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Trillo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-09-04 06:37 PM
Response to Original message
6. Would it make any difference? Yes.
Edited on Tue Nov-09-04 06:43 PM by SimpleTrend
My math might be wrong here, but ustogether.org (URL above) states: "the Op-Scan voting machines register about 6% larger Republican - Democrat difference than the E-Touchscreen voting machines. This is statistically significant (p < 0.01)."

The total votes with opt-scan
3,497,834
multiplied by .06 (6%) =
209,870

The spreadsheet says republican and democratic votes for all counties are:
3,953,309 Republican
3,572,099 Democrat


Subtracting 209,870 from the republicans (to correct 6% overstatement, the assumption being they are votes that should have gone to democrats) and adding 209,870 to democrats, would mean the democrats won the vote totals.

3,743,438 Republican
3,781,969 Democrat

There you have it: Adjusting for the 6% bias, democrats would have won. Time for a recount.
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