Raw NEP data: order of respondent ID is signifigant.

A quick look at the data in the "_All" file is all you will need to convince yourself of that. Sort the file backwards. Then find the first instance of a precinct in Hawaii, one of the last states to close polls. It's around line 117 or so. Check Alaska, then look for east coast states; you'll find their first entry is lower in the file for states with polls that closed the earliest.

At the bootom of the file you will find the phone survey. Note how it goes state by state, because they were calling each state in turn. After the phone survey, you suddenly get data from various states mixed together. Note how the sequence skips between the phone survey and between this point. There are other sequence skips inside the phone survey.

Now close that and open one of the state files and sort it. Note the grouping of the numbers -- there will be 3 or 4 groups in each one with larger gaps between them. That is most plausibly from each time that the interviewers called up and dumped their results.

There may be some strangeness at the end of the sequence, but it is likely discernable. Hence:

A) It should be possible to identify the 663 pre-final respondants.

B) It should be possible to determine the rough weighting used for each of the preliminary release polls -- not per precinct, but with statewide results.

C) Heck, we can probably even figure out what the weather was like when they voted (joke, ya had to be there.)

In the _All file, 1230 respondant ID numbers are "missing". Some are in the gap between the telephone survey and the precinct data. The others may indicate outlier precincts which were plucked from the dataset.

1465170,
1468381 to 1468726
and: 1471630,1471655,1471680,1471840,1471873,1471881,1472000,1472328,1472443,1472451,1472509, 1473057,1473199,1473219,1473231,1473254,1473324,1473354,1473538,1473576,1473587,1473861, 1474023,1474150,1474156,1474356,1474465,1474508,1474532,1474561,1474580,1474633,1474733, 1474795,1474814,1475085,1475246,1475294,1475338,1475341,1475364,1475375,1475624,1475774, 1475895,1476293,1476341,1476465,1476538,1476549,1476593,1476869,1476873,1476964,1476992, 1476994,1477020,1477110,1477163,1477422,1477896,1478097,1478161,1478311,1478344,1478413, 1478446,1478541,1478545,1478709,1478751,1478763,1478786,1479067,1479232,1479330,1479356, 1479618,1479954,1480114,1480454,1480483,1480503,1480634,1480837,1480859,1480923,1480979, 1481388,1481434,1481481,1481825,1481869,1481891,1481893,1481951,1481968,1481992,1482035, 1482143,1482164,1482272,1482543,1483090,1483176,1483186,1483316,1483398,1483521,1483714, 1483772,1483779,1483788,1483850,1483908,1483921,1483966,1484003,1484021,1484367,1484383, 1484782,1484792,1484903,1485187,1485285,1485311,1485383,1485411,1485418,1485419,1485505,
1485706,1485732,1485836,1485847,1485906,1485977,1486141,1486360,1486557,1486605,1486646,
1486859,1486971,1487155,1487216,1487344,1487384,1487389,1487399,1487412,1487518,1487824, 1487827,1487851,1487916,1487965,1488017,1488181,1488184,1488244,1488248,1488262,1488383, 1488402,1488456,1488507,1488537,1488636,1488724,1488730,1488735,1488818,1489059,1489114, 1489215,1489386,1489462,1489551,1489598,1489627,1489911,1489926,1490021,1490355,1490436, 1490473,1490538,1490575,1490577,1490685,1490744,1490829,1490956,1490959,1490984,1491011, 1491266,1491307,1491444,1491452,1491664,1491855,1491893,1491924,1491930,1491970,1491979, 1492005,1492082,1492139,1492231,1492252,1492308,1492357,1492435,1492520,1492537,1492572, 1492603,1492674,1492756,1492797,1492800,1492822,1492828,1492865,1492940,1492970,1493012, 1493031,1493086,1493144,1493162,1493255,1493324,1493354,1493435,1493491,1493718,1493731, 1493779,1493859,1493899,1493909,1493975,1493981,1494071,1494167,1494229,1494277,1494317, 1494320,1494349,1494389,1494393,1494412,1494578,1494755,1495084,1495107,1495199,1495229, 1495320,1495523,1495545,1495581,1495628,1495676,1495732,1495752,1495770,1495848,1495885, 1495921,1496129,1496186,1496423,1496517,1496526,1496828,1496839,1497021,1497034,1497062, 1497074,1497199,1497260,1497278,1497281,1497450,1497628,1497681,1497727,1497855,1497896, 1498294,1498507,1498534,1498655,1498777,1498844,1498997,1499215,1499281,1499332,1499388, 1499404,1499424,1499437,1499485,1499504,1499506,1499528,1499565,1499571,1499625,1499727, 1499766,1499945,1500005,1500062,1500457,1500740,1500743,1500775,1500868,1501042,1501386, 1501555,1501978,1502009,1502055,1502096,1502135,1502196,1502323,1502347,1502460,1502500, 1502611,1502708,1502954,1502997,1503178,1503225,1503338,1503464,1503489,1503511,1503521, 1503615,1503627,1503645,1503804,1503841,1503982,1504211,1504258,1504358,1504411,1504442, 1504482,1504505,1504707,1504782,1504973,1504993,1505047,1505111,1505146,1505166,1505202, 1505233,1505239,1505242,1505260,1505281,1505284,1505307,1505313,1505340,1505359,1505376, 1505414,1505419,1505446,1505481,1505513,1505526,1505563,1505649,1505653,1505688,1505732, 1505775,1505885,1505904,1506016,1506020,1506136,1506156,1506181,1506216,1506281,1506313, 1506353,1506389,1506391,1506422,1506432,1506479,1506509,1506529,1506546,1506582,1506583, 1506603,1506609,1506624,1506659,1506680,1506685,1506705,1506734,1506781,1506822,1506853, 1506886,1506926,1506932,1506959,1506997,1507024,1507056,1507097,1507098,1507144,1507168, 1507185,1507223,1507242,1507277,1507342,1507377,1507427,1507460,1507524,1507582,1507587, 1507765,1507949,1508033,1508223,1508429,1508476,1508483,1508580,1508611,1508663,1508701, 1508813,1508895,1508973,1509089,1509202,1509238,1509454,1509593,1509666,1509844,1510029, 1510031,1510317,1510416,1510419,1510451,1510455,1510500,1510657,1510658,1510716,1510749, 1510831,1510884,1510919,1510979,1511034,1511088,1511228,1511248,1511383,1511418,1511520, 1511543,1511623,1511666,1511752,1511861,1511867,1511942,1512008,1512098,1512122,1512190, 1512476,1512488,1512714,1512827,1512864,1512888,1512895,1512991,1513016,1513038,1513100, 1513123,1513147,1513150,1513174,1513176,1513564,1513573,1513628,1513640,1513666,1513667, 1513706,1513714,1513724,1513796,1513867,1513902,1513917,1513925,1513995,1514002,1514082,
1514113,1514206,1514270,1514337,1514776,1514807,1514847,1515293,1515411,1515421,1515530, 1515636,1515689,1515740,1515787,1515922,1515944,1516007,1516118,1516157,1516579,1516622, 1516693,1516734,1516744,1516792,1516946,1517056,1517171,1517430,1517600,1517602,1517616, 1517741,1518032,1518152,1518173,1518332,1518343,1518358,1518394,1518465,1518487,1518552, 1518554,1518573,1518742,1518898,1519031,1519032,1519044,1519135,1519269,1519283,1519389, 1519514,1519942,1520090,1520171,1520231,1520381,1520391,1520470,1520526,1520728,1520761, 1520800,1520872,1520899,1520975,1521017,1521027,1521205,1521663,1521728,1521780,1521892, 1521969,1521973,1522183,1522256,1522292,1522425,1522864,1522896,1523102,1523577,1523608, 1523663,1523701,1523878,1523915,1523942,1524001,1524094,1524236,1524502,1524528,1524531, 1524560,1524613,1524731,1524813,1524826,1524924,1524978,1525041,1525088,1525135,1525180, 1525348,1525404,1525451,1525457,1525508,1525526,1525592,1525600,1525640,1525659,1525700, 1525748,1525752,1525820,1525878,1525952,1526093,1526200,1526252,1526262,1526373,1526479, 1526485,1526486,1526792,1526831,1527177,1527296,1527309,1527343,1527383,1527406,1527491, 1527507,1527634,1527705,1527710,1527993,1528067,1528135,1528197,1528326,1528449,1528471, 1528542,1528648,1528683,1528694,1528744,1528828,1528936,1528938,1528963,1528968,1528977, 1529141,1529151,1529196,1529224,1529470,1529619,1529660,1529670,1529717,1529730,1529824, 1529826,1530015,1530097,1530105,1530184,1530230,1530267,1530276,1530593,1530756,1530874, 1530881,1530973,1531084,1531270,1531287,1531309,1531354,1531498,1531635,1531710,1531906, 1532101,1532173,1532204,1532292,1532437,1532485,1532516,1532600,1532603,1532635,1532692, 1532804,1532820,1532874,1532969,1533077,1533109,1533187,1533282,1533324,1533485,1533563, 1533703,1533797,1533897,1534033,1534057,1534077,1534113,1534203,1534227,1534354,1534387, 1534407,1534482,1534543,1534560,1534568,1534626,1534712,1534749,1534859,1534873,1534975, 1535082,1535125,1535200,1535225,1535230,1535238,1535303,1535323,1535373,1535497,1535507, 1535524,1535569,1535590,1535603,1535684,1535740,1535801,1535837,1536012,1536084,1536085, 1536308,1536511,1536547,1536657,1536666,1536778,1536934,1536957,1537043,1537209,1537240, 1537243,1537360,1537373,1537523,1537620,1537626,1537748,1537796,1537913,1538230,1538331, 1538332,1538472,1538480,1538529,1538653,1538705,1538832,1538872,1538927,1538978,1539016, 1539107,1539495,1539579,1539619,1539635,1539659,1539673,1539690,1539738,1539749,1539788, 1540118,1540367,1540388,1540501,1540518,1540672,1540700,1540872,1540934,1540979,1541004, 1541039,1541048,1541065,1541075,1541120,1541157,1541700,1541701,1541736,1541922,1541923, 1541926,1541929,1541932,1541934,1541939,1541942,1541948,1542130,1542133,1542135,1542138, 1542139,1542141,

The following graph shows NEP respondant ID, which can be shown to be correlated with the time that the data was entered into NEP's database, with total survey responses in favor of each candidate. The data includes all respondants to both the state and national polls.



From this we can see there was no late surge towards Bush in the popular vote, in fact, the opposite.

I suppose you could say that "selective nonresponse" could mask such a surge, but that would put further strain on a theory that is already well past the breaking point by asserting the cranky Bush voters were more cranky later in the day.

...for lack of a better term. No comments on this one, except to say it is fascinating.

"It should be possible to identify the 663 pre-final respondents."

If those respondents are in the file, I'm confident you will find the suckers.

Go Skids!!!


(I think every DU Superstar deserves to have at least one groupie.
:-) )

...final respondents. As Skids said on another thread, the final 663 respondents could be anything: Mitofsky reversed the Bush-Kerry spread by RE-weighting the previous 13047 respondent records.

It's encouraging to have a groupie :-)

Though I should correct myself -- It's 613 extra people by the N figure, and 672 people counting the mystery extra lines in the file. I don't know how "663" managed to work itself into my head.

There's something there, but there's also some bunk. I haven't been able to invest the time to sift through it yet.

I'll bet there is something here I need to get but am missing.. What is the significance of the graphs? Is there "more" than just more proof that the exit polls did not break to Bush later in the day?
Thanks for the research!
mg

Skids has made the identification process so simple, I couldn't resist trying to identify some, myself.

According to the two CNN exit polls shown in early 3 November, Ohio gained at least 57 respondents between the poll that showed a Kerry lead and the one that showed a Bush win.

www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1293911&mesg_id=1293911

Looking at the final NEP Ohio precinct data from the Univ. of Mich. file, it easy to spot the last 34 respondents for the state: they all have respondent IDs > 1530000.

Following is a list of the 4 precinct numbers involved (47, 67, 76, and 119), each followed by the respondent codes > 1530000, followed by the final Kerry weight and Bush weight for each of the records involved. Sorry about the unlovely formatting.

To put this data in context, I have also shown the average weights for Kerry and Bush for the entire precinct. As you can see, the "extra" espondents are not weighted more heavily that the rest of the respondents for each precinct.

47
1530033
1530152
1530260
1530361
1530474
0 0.74
0.748 0
0.466 0
0.748 0
0.459 0
(Average weights for entire precinct: Kerry 0.423, Bush 0.525)

67
1532572
1532673
1532777
1532871
1532975
1533114
1533236
1533340
1533447
1533542
1533647
0.824 0
0.994 0
0 0.815
0 1.149
0.824 0
0 1.11
1.517 0
1.161 0
0 1.149
1.029 0
0 1.017
(Average weights for entire precinct: Kerry 0.976, Bush 1.145)

76
1530089
1530241
1530360
1530476
1530611
1530718
0 1.34
1.1 0
1.456 0
1.105 0
1.18 0
1.033 0
(Average weights for entire precinct: Kerry 1.175, Bush 1.352)

119
1530558
1530690
1530817
1530976
1531203
1531320
1531446
1531547
1531644
1531754
1531856
1532030
0 1.026
0 1.045
0 1.01
0 1.647
0.94 0
0.925 0
0.909 0
0 1.199
0 1.186
0 1.199
1.061 0
0.955 0
(Average weights for entire precinct: Kerry 0.982, Bush 1.164)

This final Ohio NEP precinct data is from the Ohio Excel spreadsheets prepared by Blue22. The data, itself, is from the Univ. of Mich. file. (Blue22 has kindly offered to e-mail the Excel spreadsheets to anyone who PMs him their e-mail address.)