THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES

Here are FIVE REALISTIC scenarios based on LIVE voter turnout.

A significant finding is this: 
Regardless of whether 100%, 99%, 98% or 97% of 2000 voters
returned to the polls, the Kerry winning margin hardly changes
(it increases by 18,000 votes for each 1% decline). So the
percentage turnout factor is of minimal effect. However, the
voter turnout MIX is THE MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WIDE DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE TOTALLY UNREALISTIC AND MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE
FINAL EXIT POLL (13660) AND THE REALISTIC AND VERY PLAUSIBLE
PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL (13047).

Using the 13660 final exit poll, after adjusting from a
mathematically impossible mix (43 Bush/37% Gore) to a very
plausible one (39.82/40.25%), then Kerry wins by 3.21 million
votes (51%-48.4%), EXACTLY REVERSING the NEP conclusion that
Bush won by 3.22 million.

Using the 13047 preliminary exit poll weights, Kerry wins by 7
million votes (52%-46.5%).

The Five Scenario Summary:
Turnout Kerry Margin (millions)
1 100% 3.21 (NEP final)
2 100% 6.65 (NEP preliminary)
3  99% 6.84 ""
4  98% 7.02 ""
5  97% 7.20 ""

THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT POLL OF 13660 is matched to the final
recorded vote. Bush won the poll by 3.22 million votes
(51.1-48.5%).
The poll asserts that 43% of Bush 2000 voters (an IMPOSSIBLE
104.14% turnout) came to the polls in 2004, while just 37% of
Gore voters did. The proof: Bush received 50.456 million votes
in 2000, or 41.26% of the total 122.26 million who voted in
2004. 

According to death rate statistics, approximately 3.5% of 2000
voters have died. Subtracting 3.5% from the 2000 individual
votes for Gore and Bush, and dividing the net result by 122.26
mm, then the MAXIMUM POSSIBLE LIVE 2000 voter turnout was
39.82% (Bush) and 40.25% (Gore). 					

FINAL EXIT POLL (13660):IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGS
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
20.774	No	17%	45%	54%	1%	
45.214	Gore	37%	10%	90%	1%	
52.546	Bush	43%	91%	9%	0%	
3.666	Other	3%	21%	71%	3%	
101.426	TOTAL	100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.63%
	Votes	122.53	62.49	59.27	0.77
Bush	Margin	3.22			


REALISTIC SCENARIOS:
		
Scenario 1					
FINAL 13660 POLL WEIGHTS- ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH RATE					
100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 million	

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.163	None	17.31%	45%	54%	1%
49.210	Gore	40.25%	10%	90%	0%
48.684	Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%
	TOTAL	100.00%	48.39%	51.02%	0.59%
122.26	Votes		59.16	62.37	0.72
Kerry	Margin	3.21			
					
					
Scenario 2					
PRELIMINARY 13047 POLL- WEIGHTS ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH
RATE					
100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 million	

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.163	None	17.31%	41.5%	57.5%	1%
49.210	Gore	40.25%	8%	91%	1%
48.684	Bush	39.82%	90%	9%	1%
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
	TOTAL	100.00%	46.58%	52.02%	1.39%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.95	63.61	1.70	
Kerry	Margin	6.65				
						
Scenario 3 (Most Likely)						
99% turnout of 2000 voters: 99.874	million		

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
22.386	None	18.31%	41.5%	57.5%	1%	
48.598	Gore	39.75%	8%	91%	1%	
48.073	Bush	39.32%	90%	9%	1%	
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
	TOTAL	100.00%	46.51%	52.10%	1.39%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.86	63.70	1.70	
Kerry	Margin	6.84				

Scenario 4						
98% turnout of 2000 voters: 98.652	million		

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
23.608	None	19.31%	41.5%	57.5%	1%	
47.987	Gore	39.25%	8%	91%	1%	
47.461	Bush	38.82%	90%	9%	1%	
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
	TOTAL	100.00%	46.43%	52.17%	1.39%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.77	63.79	1.70	
Kerry	Margin	7.02				

Scenario 5						
97% turnout of 2000 voters: 97.429	million		

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
24.831	None	20.31%	41.5%	57.5%	1%	
47.376	Gore	38.75%	8%	91%	1%	
46.850	Bush	38.32%	90%	9%	1%	
3.203	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
	TOTAL	100.00%	46.36%	52.25%	1.39%	
122.26	Votes	122.26	56.68	63.88	1.70	
Kerry	Margin	7.20				

According to the FINAL Exit poll, Bush won by 3.22 million
votes (51.11-48.48%). The critical stats: 43% of Bush 2000
voters and 37% of Gore voters returned to the polls in 2004.

We know these are IMPOSSIBLE stats right off the bat, since
the Bush 2000 vote (50.456 mil.) was 41.26% of the 122.26 mil.
votes in 2004. 

BUT...THIS ASSUMES THAT NOT A SINGLE 2000 VOTER HAS SINCE
DIED, SO THE TRUE NUMBER HAS TO BE LESS THAN 41.26%. YET THE
FINAL EXIT POLL SHOWS A 43/37% MIX. IT HAD TO ASSUME THIS
ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE MIX IN ORDER TO MATCH TO THE RECORDED
VOTE, EVEN IF IT MEANT RAISING THE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE 41%/39%
SPLIT IN THE PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL(SEE "DEATH RATES"
BELOW).

To determine reasonable weights, using the following facts:
1. 122.26 million voted in 2004.
2. 104.777 million voted in 2000.
3. 50.999 million (48.67%) voted for Gore in 2000.
4. 50.456 million (48.15%) voted for Bush in 2000.
5. 3.322 million (3.17%) voted for Nader et al in 2000.
6. The net increase from 2000 to 2004 was 17.483 million
votes.

Using a table of annual U.S. death rates (8.7 per thousand),
we can estimate that 3.5% of Election 2000 voters have died
in the last 4 years (multiply the annual death rate of 8.7
per 1000 by 4).

Applying the rate to determine how many Gore, Bush and Nader
voters have died since 2000:

Gore: .035 * 50.999 = 1.785 million
Bush: .035 * 50.456 = 1.766 million
Nader: .035*   3.22 = 0.116 million

A total of approximately 3.667 Election 2000 voters died
prior to Election Day 2004. 

Therefore, there had to be 21.15 million NEW VOTERS in 2004,
since 21.15 = 17.483 (net increase) + 3.667.

Now 21.15 million is 17.3% of the total 122.26 million 2004
vote.
THIS IS EQUAL TO THE 17% OF NEW VOTERS STATED IN THE FINAL
EXIT POLL. 

Therefore, the MAXIMUM number of 2000 voters who could have
voted in 2004 has to be:
Gore voters: 50.999-1.785 = 49.21 million =40.25% of 122.26
Bush voters: 50.456-1.766 = 48.69 million =39.82% 
Nader voters: 3.322-0.116 =  3.21 million = 2.62% 

Assuming ALL voted (of course this is not true, some stayed
home) 

Scenario 1					
FINAL 13660 POLL WEIGHTS- ADJUSTED FOR 3.5% DEATH RATE					
100% turnout of 2000 voters: 101.097 million	
Voted	2000
	      Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.15 	None	17.31%	45%	54%	1%
49.21 	Gore	40.25%	10%	90%	0%
48.69 	Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%
 3.21 	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%
	 	100% 48.39%  51.02%	0.59%
122.26		     59.16   62.37	0.72
Kerry	Margin	3.21			


The bottom line: 
THE ONLY WAY THAT BUSH COULD HAVE WON THE FINAL NATIONAL EXIT
POLL WAS TO ASSUME THE USE OF IMPOSSIBLE WEIGHTINGS, AS SHOWN
ABOVE. 

If the Bush/Gore weights are changed from an IMPOSSIBLE
43%/37% to 39.82%/40.25%, THEN KERRY WON THE ELECTION BY 3.21
MILLION VOTES. 

Assume 100% of Bush 2000 voters (39.82% of 122.26) turned out
and the Final 37% Gore stat is correct (92.2% Gore voter
turnout). 
In fact, assume ALL the Final Exit Poll stats are correct.

Kerry still wins 50.22%-48.4%.
A 2.23 million vote margin.

See Case # 14 and the Final Exit poll column (Kerry 54% of new
voters)

KERRY IS A WINNER IN ALL 120 = 20*6 SCENARIOS.

EVEN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO (CASE 20):
ASSUME A MISERABLE 88.6% Gore TURNOUT (35.50% OF 122.26) 

KERRY STILL WINS 49.66% - 48.94%.
THAT'S AN 870,000 VOTE MARGIN.				

See Case # 14 and the Final Exit poll column (Kerry 54% of new
voters)

					KERRY NATIONAL VOTE SCENARIOS					
					New Voter Share and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout					
					(Assume 100% Turnout of Bush 2000 voters)					

	Assumed		Prelim.	Prelim.				Final		
	Turnout	Turnout	7:38pm	12:22am				2:05pm	2000 Voter Mix	
	Bush	Gore	11027	13047				13660	Bush   Gore
			KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS							
Case			59%	58%	57%	56%	55%	54%		
1	100.0%	100.0%	52.28%	52.11%	51.94%	51.77%	51.59%	51.42%	39.82%	40.25%
2	100.0%	99.4%	52.20%	52.03%	51.85%	51.68%	51.50%	51.33%	39.82%	40.00%
3	100.0%	98.8%	52.12%	51.95%	51.77%	51.59%	51.41%	51.23%	39.82%	39.75%
4	100.0%	98.2%	52.04%	51.86%	51.68%	51.50%	51.32%	51.14%	39.82%	39.50%
5	100.0%	97.6%	51.96%	51.78%	51.60%	51.42%	51.23%	51.05%	39.82%	39.25%
										
6	100.0%	97.0%	51.88%	51.70%	51.51%	51.33%	51.14%	50.96%	39.82%	39.00%
7	100.0%	96.4%	51.80%	51.62%	51.43%	51.24%	51.05%	50.86%	39.82%	38.75%
8	100.0%	95.8%	51.72%	51.53%	51.34%	51.15%	50.96%	50.77%	39.82%	38.50%
9	100.0%	95.2%	51.64%	51.45%	51.26%	51.07%	50.87%	50.68%	39.82%	38.25%
10	100.0%	94.6%	51.56%	51.37%	51.17%	50.98%	50.78%	50.59%	39.82%	38.00%

11	100.0%	94.0%	51.48%	51.29%	51.09%	50.89%	50.69%	50.49%	39.82%	37.75%
12	100.0%	93.4%	51.40%	51.20%	51.00%	50.80%	50.60%	50.40%	39.82%	37.50%
13	100.0%	92.8%	51.32%	51.12%	50.92%	50.72%	50.51%	50.31%	39.82%	37.25%
14	100.0%	92.2%	51.24%	51.04%	50.83%	50.63%	50.42%	50.22%	39.82%	37.00%
15	100.0%	91.6%	51.16%	50.96%	50.75%	50.54%	50.33%	50.12%	39.82%	36.75%

16	100.0%	91.0%	51.08%	50.87%	50.66%	50.45%	50.24%	50.03%	39.82%	36.50%
17	100.0%	90.4%	51.00%	50.79%	50.58%	50.37%	50.15%	49.94%	39.82%	36.25%
18	100.0%	89.8%	50.92%	50.71%	50.49%	50.28%	50.06%	49.85%	39.82%	36.00%
19	100.0%	89.2%	50.84%	50.63%	50.41%	50.19%	49.97%	49.75%	39.82%	35.75%
20	100.0%	88.6%	50.76%	50.54%	50.32%	50.10%	49.88%	49.66%	39.82%	35.50%