NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: A DU TIA REFERENCE COLLECTION

TruthIsAll

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Sun Mar-27-05 12:00 PM
Original message

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: A DU TIA REFERENCE COLLECTION

Edited on Sun Mar-27-05 12:56 PM by TruthIsAll

"Every time I think I'm out, I get pulled right back in"
Al Pacino, "The Godfather, Part III"

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS
TruthIsAll

KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 NEP SCENARIOS: NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER TURNOUT
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349444

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275

Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder?
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348688

Part IV. To believe Bush won the election, you must also believe �
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 12:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348022

HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=348456#

BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x347144

100% ABSOLUTE PROOF: FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346932

THE MAGICAL 613 FINAL RESPONDENTS: FROM 13047 TO 13660
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346890

FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346284

THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=346481

PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote Deviation
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345177

The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=344005

A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343448

IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT CHANGED?
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 04:53 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343168

Lynn Landes, this is for you.
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 06:24 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343312

THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND "PROOF"
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342913

Nederland agrees: The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are bogus.
Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342689

GRAPHS: 1988-2004 Prelim. Nat. Exit Poll to Vote - Trend reversal in 2004
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341940

A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341540

The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to 2:04pm (B)
Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x340029

Check. Mate.
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=339246

NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x334949

MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY"
Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=334152

SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x331601

PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449

BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER" THEORY
Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x325206

THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE NEW
Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=323939

1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=301075

Bush Win probabilities for various Party-ID weights in the National Exit Poll
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=287175

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BlueEyedSon

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Sun Mar-27-05 12:15 PM
Response to Original message

1. I sure hope you are going to publish a book.

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Sparkly

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Sun Mar-27-05 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #1

10. Seriously!!

Have you considered it, TIA?

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TruthIsAll

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Sun Mar-27-05 11:13 PM
Response to Reply #1

15. Five Easy Pieces: Solving the Party-ID Conundrum

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349683

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Melissa G

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Sun Mar-27-05 12:20 PM
Response to Original message

2. kick for TI A!

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autorank

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Sun Mar-27-05 12:23 PM
Response to Original message

3. Thanks for the aggregation! Kicked and recommended.

:kick: :kick:

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opihimoimoi

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Sun Mar-27-05 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #3

4. TIA is THE MAN

kick

:kick:

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TruthIsAll

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Mon Mar-28-05 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #4

29. Come, Opi, we go diving for more Kerry votes...

Edited on Mon Mar-28-05 08:26 PM by TruthIsAll

and throw the dead Bush voters back into the coral sea...

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ooglymoogly

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Sun Mar-27-05 01:03 PM
Response to Original message

5. kick this till it screams

recommended greatest

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LatePeriduct

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Wed Mar-30-05 06:28 AM
Response to Reply #5

31. Good gosh that's alot.

By voter ID and crossing the party line, and by issue and everything else.

That is a whole lot of work! If only there was some easy way to cross check the exit poll schemes against the precinct error data, that the Dominionists don't want us to keep seeing from the EIRS.

Can't put the deadbolt lock on a jack-n-a-box.

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understandinglife

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Sun Mar-27-05 01:21 PM
Response to Original message

6. Thank you. When you write 'the book' I would be honored and more...

....than willing to read pre-prints of chapters and help edit.

Nominated and bookmarked this one.

Peace.

www.missionnotaccomplished.us

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bleever

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Sun Mar-27-05 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #6

12. I too would be honored to help if I could be of assistance

in editing, proofing, etc.

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The Doctor.

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Sun Mar-27-05 01:42 PM
Response to Original message

7. Thank you TIA.

I can't imagine the hours you've put in, but I look forward to seeing your work cited as a major authority in stories to come.

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Coexist

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Sun Mar-27-05 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #7

8. kick

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Zan_of_Texas

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Sun Mar-27-05 03:33 PM
Response to Original message

9. SPLAT!

Okay, it's time to write up your best 2-3 page article, TIA.

You can even add some pages with footnotes and graphs if you want.

But, give me guts of what you got.

I will read it if you will write it.

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kansasblue

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Sun Mar-27-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #9

11. an overview?

I agree a nice printable handout would be great. I'd leave them at coffee shops and on planes and give them to friends. TIA, you've done great work. Hate to ask for more but I think we are ready for the book / pamphlet / handout that we can give to everyone. I wish I had better skills at this but a nice PDF file with images attached would be great.

:-)

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Wilms

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Sun Mar-27-05 08:19 PM
Response to Original message

13. TIA

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Nothing Without Hope

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Sun Mar-27-05 10:14 PM
Response to Original message

14. Talk about Hall of Fame!!! Have you sent this to Conyers?

He's blogging now, and if you choose one of his topics to do with voting reform and cut and paste the full links (so that the URLs aren't truncated), I'm sure he'd appreciate the full set of these, and so would the people reading his blog!

I know I do - thank you for what seems the hundredth time, TIA! Recommended for Greatest, because it is!

The Conyers blog is here:
http://www.conyersblog.us

Or, if you want to email it, the contact info given on the blog home page is

Friends of John Conyers, Jr.
19512 Livernois
Detroit, Michigan� 48221
Phone:� 313-438-2004
Email:� campaign@johnconyers.com

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TruthIsAll

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Sun Mar-27-05 11:17 PM
Response to Reply #14

16. You can send him a link to this thread...

Edited on Sun Mar-27-05 11:20 PM by TruthIsAll

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Nothing Without Hope

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Sun Mar-27-05 11:28 PM
Response to Reply #16

17. OK, I'll do that thing and let you know if he responds. n/t

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Nothing Without Hope

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Mon Mar-28-05 12:02 AM
Response to Original message

18. Repost of original TIA list in PLAIN TEXT FORMAT so you can send links

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS: A DU TIA REFERENCE COLLECTION

TruthIsAll
-------------------------------
KERRY WINS 57 OF 60 NEP SCENARIOS: NEW VOTERS VS. 2000 VOTER
TURNOUT
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 11:21 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349444

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO: KERRY WON BY 7 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Sat Mar-26-05 06:16 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x349275

Reluctant Bush Responder? Or Resurrected Bush Responder?
Edited on Fri Mar-25-05 05:43 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348688

Part IV. To believe Bush won the election, you must also
believe �
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 12:01 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x348022

HOW TO RED-SHIFT THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL IN 6 EASY STEPS...
Edited on Thu Mar-24-05 11:44 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=348456

BASED ON THE U.S. ANNUAL DEATH RATE OF 8.7 PER 1000...
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 09:30 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x347144

100% ABSOLUTE PROOF: FINAL NEP OVERSTATED BUSH VOTE BY AT
LEAST 2 MILLION VOTES
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 02:01 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346932

THE MAGICAL 613 FINAL RESPONDENTS: FROM 13047 TO 13660
Edited on Mon Mar-21-05 10:26 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346890

FOUR VERY RED FLAGS....
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 01:38 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x346284

THE NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE: THE FULL STORY IN 3 GRAPHS
Edited on Sat Mar-19-05 09:22 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=346481

PROBABILITY TABLE: Exit Poll Margin of Error vs. Vote
Deviation
Edited on Thu Mar-17-05 12:37 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x345177
 
The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy: Explained
Edited on Tue Mar-15-05 01:23 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=344005

A SUMMARY EXIT POLL MATHEMATICAL FORMULATION
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 10:54 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343448

IF THIS PRELIMINARY NEP WEIGHT WAS CORRECT, WHY WAS IT
CHANGED?
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 04:53 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343168

Lynn Landes, this is for you.
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 06:24 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x343312
 
THIS EXIT POLL SIMULATION TEST BLOWS AWAY THE NEDERLAND
"PROOF"
Edited on Sat Mar-12-05 12:51 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342913

Nederland agrees: The Recorded votes and Final Exit poll are
bogus.
Edited on Fri Mar-11-05 10:29 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x342689

GRAPHS: 1988-2004 Prelim. Nat. Exit Poll to Vote - Trend
reversal in 2004
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 11:11 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341940

A Mathematical proof: Preliminary Exit polls are accurate
Edited on Thu Mar-10-05 09:01 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x341540

The Nat Exit Poll Crime Line: 7:58pm(K) to 12:22am (K) to
2:04pm (B)
Edited on Mon Mar-07-05 11:55 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x340029
 
Check. Mate.
Edited on Sun Mar-06-05 04:03 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=339246

NATIONAL EXIT POLL: PRELIMINARY TO FINAL - WHAT HAPPENED?
Edited on Sat Feb-26-05 01:23 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x334949

MITOFSKY EXIT POLL CAVEAT: "FINAL PERCENTAGES MAY SHIFT
SLIGHTLY"
Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 12:02 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=334152

SO IT COMES TO THIS: DO YOU BELIEVE 13,047 OR 13,660?
Edited on Mon Feb-21-05 09:40 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x331601

PRE-ELECTION STATE POLLS vs. EXIT POLLS vs. ACTUALS
Edited on Sat Feb-19-05 12:02 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449

BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS: MITOFSKY'S "RELUCTANT BUSH
RESPONDER" THEORY
Edited on Sat Feb-12-05 12:46 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x325206

THE MOST DEVASTATING STATISTIC OF ALL: 17% OF THE VOTERS WERE
NEW
Edited on Fri Feb-11-05 01:05 AM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=323939

1/23 UPDATE: NATIONAL EXIT POLL DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS
Edited on Sun Jan-23-05 01:50 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=301075

Bush Win probabilities for various Party-ID weights in the
National Exit Poll
Edited on Sun Jan-16-05 04:29 PM 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=287175

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intheflow

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Mon Mar-28-05 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #18

23. Thanks for this.

Because of you, I was able to put this up on Demopedia with relatively little pain. :hi:

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Nothing Without Hope

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Mon Mar-28-05 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #23

24. That's good news!

How is it listed? I haven't used Demopedia yet and am unfamiliar with how things are organized. The Election 2004 section must be quite extensive and varied, so I am wondering how the different aspects of the information about it are arranged.

I wanted to be able to email a list of those threads myself, and I thought other people would also. I think it would be most helpful if people posting lists of long URLs (long enough to be truncated by the DU HTML formatting) would post them twice in their threads - once in HTML so the links are clickable and once in plain text so they are copyable. It's good that we have the option to do this, nice forethought from the DU designers.

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intheflow

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Mon Mar-28-05 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #24

25. On the main Demopedia page

there's a link to in the "Useful Links to Get You Started" list called "Categories." Clicking on that brings up a list of all the Demopedia categories so far, listed alphbetically. This is in the "Election Issues" category. The name of this particulr article is "2004 Exit Poll Analysis."

But you're right, there's all kinds of information on the election there.

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Nothing Without Hope

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Tue Mar-29-05 06:44 PM
Response to Reply #25

30. Thank you! Looks like this will be my incentive to finally go into

Demopedia!

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Al-CIAda

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Mon Mar-28-05 12:34 AM
Response to Original message

19. kick & Rec'd for T I f'n A -eom

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torque

(167 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon Mar-28-05 12:45 AM
Response to Original message

20. Thx TIA for all your hard work!

We can now add this to our evidence lists and distribute it to the people... With your permission of course.

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intheflow

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Mon Mar-28-05 02:59 AM
Response to Original message

21. Have started a Demopedia page on this.

2005 Exit Poll Analysis

I'll work on wikifying NothingWithoutHope's text links to TIA's information and get it up in the next few days.

Thank you TIA for all your hard work! :thumbsup:

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mogster

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Mon Mar-28-05 09:04 AM
Response to Original message

22. Bookmarked! And recommended! n/t

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Peace Patriot

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Mon Mar-28-05 05:36 PM
Response to Original message

26. DU won't let me recommend, cuz I just caught up with this, and was...

...posted prior to the last 24 hours. Damn! Forum monitor, PLEASE TAKE NOTE OF MY RECOMMENDATION!

This is just totally awesome, TIA!

And thanks to NothingWithoutHope for the plain text urls.

TIA, you've got a number of people offering help here--for book, article, whatever. (An animated film would be cool--with cute little animated trolls that zip graph lines up and down, play tricks--like those played on the voters--turn things upside down, offer nonsensical explanations--like Edison-Mitofsky--and one of whom wins the White House in the end, though it is not human.) (Kind of like those atom bomb shelter cartoons put out by the government in the 1950s...)

Ahem.

The Intro needs to be written for those who don't understand statistics (most people). 'Nuff said. And I will help. Just ask.

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FogerRox

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Mon Mar-28-05 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #26

27. Bookmarked--dude

I'm writing--a fraud review for VOTE--arniehiem (SP?) this month.

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tommcintyre

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Mon Mar-28-05 07:23 PM
Response to Original message

28. Thanks for all your hard work! n/t

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