YOU DECIDE: DO THESE FIVE SCENARIOS MAKE rBr IRRELEVANT?

2004 Election Analysis Model	

Does this analysis make rBr irrelevant, since we are assuming
100% turnout based on realistic weights, unlike the impossible
weights used in the Final 13660 Exit Poll?

Assuming maximum 2000 voter turnout, here are five scenarios
in which Bush could have obtained his final vote.

Bush needs to win:
Scenario 1: 65% of new voters, 10% Gore voters
Scenario 2: 99% of Bush 2000 voters
Scenario 3: 97% of Bush, 10% Gore voters
Scenario 4: 93% of Bush, 70% Nader voters
Scenario 5: 95% of Bush, 44% Nader, 10% Gore voters

Do you think any of these scenarios are plausible, in light of
the exit poll percentages which follow?

First, the basic data:
122.26 mn voted in 2004					
104.78 mm voted in 2000					
Net increase: 17.48mm voters					
						
50.456mm voted for Bush in 2000					
1.766mm died (approx.)					
Maximum number of Bush 2000 voters who could vote in 2004:
 48.690mm (39.82%)
						
50.999 voted for Gore in 2000					
1.785	died (approx.)					
Maximum number of Gore 2000 voters who could vote in 2004:
49.214mm (40.25%)						
						
3.322	voted for Nader in 2000					
0.116	died (approx.)					
Maximum number of Nader voters who could vote in 2004:
3.206mm (2.62%)
						
Calculating the MAXIMUM POSSIBLE total turnout of 2000 voters:
Bush	48.690mm (39.82%)
Gore	49.214mm (40.25%)
Other	3.206mm (2.62%)

TOTAL	101.11mm (82.70%)
						
Therefore, the MINIMUM number of new voters had to be:
21.150mm (17.30%)				
						
National Exit Poll Timeline						
CNN 7:38pm  (11027 respondents)
WP 12:28am  (13047 respondents)					
CNN 2:05 pm (13660 respondents)					

**********************************************************	
						
11027 at 7:38pm

Kerry wins by: 7.50 million votes		

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
21.150	None	17.30%	39%	59%	2%	
49.214	Gore	40.25%	8%	91%	1%	
48.690	Bush	39.82%	90%	9%	1%	
3.206	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
						
122.26	Total	100.0%	46.15%	52.28%	1.57%	
		122.26	56.42	63.92	1.91	

**********************************************************						
13047 at 12:22am

Kerry wins by: 6.65 million votes		
						
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
21.150	None	17.30%	41%	57%	2%	
49.214	Gore	40.25%	8%	91%	1%	
48.690	Bush	39.82%	90%	9%	1%	
3.206	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	
						
122.26	Total	100.0%	46.50%	51.94%	1.57%	
		122.26	56.85	63.50	1.91	

**********************************************************									
13660 at 1:25pm

Kerry wins by: 3.21 million votes		
						
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
21.150	None	17.30%	45%	54%	1%	
49.214	Gore	40.25%	10%	90%	0%	
48.690	Bush	39.82%	91%	9%	0%	
3.206	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	

122.26	Total	100.0%	48.39%	51.02%	0.59%	
		122.26	59.16	62.37	0.72	

**********************************************************			

Now adjust the voting percentages for each scenario, to see
what it would take for Bush to win by 3 million votes..

**********************************************************			

Scenario 1:	
Bush gets 65% of new voters, 10% Gore voters

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
21.150	None	17.30%	65.0%	33.0%	2%	
49.214	Gore	40.25%	8%	91%	1%	
48.690	Bush	39.82%	90%	10%	0%	
3.206	Other	2.62%	13%	71%	16%	

122.26	Total	100.0%	50.65%	48.18%	1.17%	
		122.26	61.92	58.91	1.43	

Bush wins by: 3.01mm			

**********************************************************			
Note: Each of the following scenarios assumes that Bush wins
45% of new voters, based on the FINAL 13660. This is extremely
unlikely, since he won only 39% of new voters at 11027
respondents and 41% at 13047. But we will be conservative and
give him this very liberal head-start.
**********************************************************


Scenario 2:	
Bush gets 99% of Bush 2000 voters					

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
21.150	None	17.30%	45.0%	54.0%	1.0%	
49.214	Gore	40.25%	8.0%	91.0%	1.0%	
48.690	Bush	39.82%	99.0%	1.0%	0%	
3.206	Other	2.62%	13.0%	71.0%	16.0%	

122.26	Total	100.0%	50.77%	48.23%	1.00%	
		122.26	62.07	58.97	1.22	

Bush wins by: 3.11mm			

**********************************************************	

Scenario 3:	
Bush gets 97% of Bush 2000 voters and 10% of Gore voters					
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader	
21.150	None	17.30%	45.0%	54.0%	1.0%	
49.214	Gore	40.25%	10.0%	90.0%	0.0%	
48.690	Bush	39.82%	97.0%	3.0%		
3.206	Other	2.62%	13.0%	71.0%	16.0%	

122.26	Total	100.0%	50.78%	48.63%	0.59%
		122.26	62.09	59.45	0.72

Bush wins by: 2.63mm		

**********************************************************	

Scenario 4:	
Bush gets 93% of Bush 2000 voters and 70% of Nader voters				
Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.150	None	17.30%	45.0%	54.0%	2.0%
49.214	Gore	40.25%	10.0%	89.0%	1.0%
48.690	Bush	39.82%	93.0%	7.0%	0%
3.206	Other	2.62%	70.0%	14.0%	16.0%

122.26	Total	100.0%	50.68%	48.32%	1.17%
		122.47	61.96	59.08	1.43

Bush wins by: 2.88mm

**********************************************************	

Scenario 5:	
Bush gets 95% of Bush 2000 voters, 44% Nader voters, 10% Gore
voters

Voted	2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
21.150	None	17.30%	45.0%	54.0%	2.0%
49.214	Gore	40.25%	10.0%	89.0%	1.0%
48.690	Bush	39.82%	95.0%	5.0%	0%
3.206	Other	2.62%	44.0%	40.0%	16.0%

122.26	Total	100.0%	50.80%	48.21%	1.17%
		122.47	62.11	58.94	1.43

Bush wins by: 3.17mm		

**********************************************************