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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:37 AM
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More Exit Poll Questions
OK, so there was a mean bias in previous exit polls that overestimated the Dem vote count (or elections have been rigged by the Repubs for years).

But again we are only dealing with simple averages.

To see if 2004 was really different than previous polls, we need to know more.

For example, what were the Median WPEs and the Absolute Mean WPEs in the previous polls? We have these numbers for 2004, from Mitofsky, and they show huge WPEs in both directions, with a small bias toward Kerry in the polls and/or toward Bush in the vote count.

What can we say about previous exit polls? Were the Absolute Mean WPEs just as high, well over 15%, and probably up to 30%?

Were there Median WPEs just as large, independent of precinct partisanship?

Without this sort of data, we can't make the assertion that the results of the 2004 poll were similar to or different from previous polls, except in its overall discrepancy from the vote count before adjustment. So, anybody got it?
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Lerkfish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 11:41 AM
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1. the only way i see to combat this problem is
to have enough volunteers to poll EVERY voter as they leave...in essence, a one to one scale of the election to be compared against the official results.
As long as the participation in the exit poll is anywhere less than the whole sample, there is no valid legal way to refute the differences....unfortunately, and IMHO
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jojo54 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 12:01 PM
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2. I say To Hell with the Exit Polls
IMHO, it's time we go back to names on the ballots with a check box next to each name. Voters X the nominee of their choice BY HAND and place in locked boxes until polls close. There are no early counts, no early projections. The polling places are then locked down, someone opens each box IN SIGHT OF POLL HELPERS FROM EACH PARTY. Then the votes are counted by each party. Cameras abound in each and every polling place while the votes are counted, so any American can watch the count as they please.

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