Again History Is Made On DU - EXIT POLL THEORY Bounces Back

BIGGER THAN WATERGATE productions in association with the Democratic Underground Presidential Results & Discussion Forum & BUZZFLASH presents…

A recording of internet links for posterity's sake showing history in the making in an internet forum

Or

how a few clued up internet bloggers make the WashPost and NYT look like a bunch of clueless morans.

A story set right here on DU. Featuring Flintdem, GregD, and yours truly….in the style of SoCalDemocrat, Faun Otter and the immortal TIA. And introducing - for the first time - a new rising star in the world of DU verifiedvote2004.

The story begins….(Not on a cold day in upstate NY – but in the early hours of Thursday morning in Karori, Wellington, NZ)

DUER ALTHECAT (the author of this tale) BEGS TO DIFFER ON EXIT POLL IRRELEVANCY
Ok... third time lucky I WANT COMPLETE EXIT POLL DATA (keep kicked pls)
10 Nov 3.47AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=35224&mesg_id=35224&page=

Some time goes past then the GrgeD PMs me – send an email to Jonathan Simon at this address. A friend Jonathan Simon has some data. Bingo…

DU POST BY VERIFIEDVOTE2004 (on DUer GregD's Encouragement)
US Polling Data
1.50pm
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=35224&mesg_id=36129&page=

FLINTDEM POST CATCHES THE RELEVANCE OF THE COMPUTER CRASH
Anyone Seen This?
02:35 PM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=35224&mesg_id=36212&page=

ALTHECAT DU POST HIGHLIGHTING IT TO DU
A Must Read ** Breakthrough ** – EXIT POLL ANALYSIS FOR 47 STATES
3.17pm
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=36314

FREEMAN'S PAPER - BASED ON SIMON'S DATA
The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy
Dated 10th November....
http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/The_unexplained_exit_poll_discrepancy_v00k.pdf

Though the time or writing is not known, because it refers to the computer glitch at the bottom of page 2 (Footnote 5 refers to the same Washington Post report).... I think it is probable that he completed it after the DU post appeared. Reading between the footnotes (and I am guessing here) Jonathan Simon sent his data to Freeman to see what he thought of it on Nov. 6th. The long and the short of this tale is that Jonathan Simon has made an enormous impact through staying up late on election night copying down some Exit Poll data.

SCOOP REPORT – FIRST PUBLICATION OF JONATHAN'S DATA OUTSIDE DU
47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly
(timed 1.45pm 11th NZT - This is aprox 8.45pm 10th EST – not sure if DU runs on PDT or EST)
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm

ALTHECAT DU POST - LINKING SCOOP - EXPLAINING DATA FURTHER
Scoop: 47 State Exit Poll Analysis Confirms Swing Anomaly
Thu Nov-11-04 12:54 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x38567

BUZZFLASH BRINGS THE FREEMAN REPORT TO THE WORLD (Today)
The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy
November 11, 2004
http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/ale04090.html
http://www.buzzflash.com/alerts/04/11/The_unexplained_exit_poll_discrepancy_v00k.pdf

Postscript..

ALTHECAT DU POST – TWIGGING TO WHY THE MEDIA GOT THIS SO WRONG
Caltech Study On Exit Polls - Is This Why The Media Backed Off?
Fri Nov-12-04 02:23 AM
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=43258&mesg_id=43258

So…that's how it happens… that's how insignificant bloggers working at home on subjects that make many people's eyes glaze over manage to make Peter Jennings blow a gasket on the evening news.

With Buzzflash promoing this VERY EXCELLENT REPORT of Dr Stephen F Freeman's as if their life depended on it. And with the report being so DAMN HOT. I think it is reasonable to predict the reporting of EXIT POLL discrepancies is about to make a GIGANTIC comeback in MSM.

SO NOW LETS SEE WHERE THE MEDIA TAKE THIS ONE… ROLL ON RANDI RHODES AND KEITH OLBERMANN…

:toast:

So do you think this post is worthy of the DU homepage?

:bounce:

Already done, too! :toast:

Greetings! From the last bastion of truth, the "blogosphere"
(excellent description of DU's value)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=48414#48559

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1290765

I first started reporting on the irregularities between exit polls and reported results at 8:54pm PST on election night.

I'm glad to see others moving forward with this. The report by Freeman is especially helpful and adds more credence to the claims. What we need now are the exit poll results to be released.

One point Freeman missed were the other early excuses offered for the exit poll variance.

CNN initially claimed they had oversampled black voters. When that didn't, stick they switched and claimed it was young white women. Then there were claims that Kerry people were told about the 1400+ sites where polling was taking place so they could try and spike the results to suppress voter turnout!

None of these excuses hold water, especially as we were tracking exit polling well into the night, long after all the polls had closed.

and those people forwarding to THEIR email list -- I suspect that more people have read about the vote fraud and exit poll flip flop -- then read the NYT.

I am still waiting for the International press to pick up this story big time and plaster it all over their front pages. Then the International press will call the US press and try to interview the US Press. The old -- interview each other game -- when the principals won't come out and give an interview.

The jabbering of the International media might wake up the US media into reporting on how the International media is covering the US election and then through the back door -- report on the Vote Fraud that faithful followers of DU are by now experts on.

Randi is off today -- but she promises to return on Monday.

Mike Malloy is on reporting this as is Laura Flanders (AAR weekends) -- as is Mike Webb -- I don't have cable so I rely on DUers for Olbermann updates. Al Franken -- forget him.

And I am wondering what the people who did vote for bush are thinking of him now?

Most probably don't care about how many Iraqis are dying --but they might care about the high body count on the US side. Some might find it ironic that bushie feels it so important that the Iraqis vote that he needs to kill lots of them and blow their homes up to make sure they can vote!?!

But the fundies are happy -- referring to article posted at LBN. Bush is living is an alternative reality.

(Sorry about this review -- I'm doing it partly for my own sanity -- is this crap really happening -- or am I having a never ending nightmare that I can't wake up from. Was I hit by a truck and stuck in a coma?)

etc.

What an exciting place this is...it has saved my sanity. (or maybe is participating in the loss of it!) I have been up all night trying to wake media up to respond to this; I've sent out about 50 e-mails, and have a long way to go. My e-mail is as follows:

To Whom it May Concern,

Dr. Freeman is on faculty at the University of Pennsylvania, and received his PhD from M.I.T.. In the following article, he debunks some of the circulating myths about the invalidity of exit poll data in this election, and statistically analyzes the chances of the so-called Bush 'red shift' in the three critical battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Please do not continue to ignore the obvious discrepancies in this election. One has to consider that all of the 'irregularities' in this election somehow magically favored Mr. Bush. In addition, I have heard no in depth discussion about the political connections to the Republican Party and the Diebold, ES and S and other voting machines. If you refuse to cover this, you'll next be trying to convince those readers and viewers who are not mentally challenged, to really believe that we still have a democracy.

Sincerely,
*************

http://www.legjoints.com/AmericanElectionFraud/the-unex ...
......................................................................
"The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy"
Steven F. Freeman, PhD

Conclusions:

The likelihood that Kerry would receive only 48.5% of the vote in Ohio, with an exit poll of 52.1, is less than 1 in 1,000 (0.0008).

The likelihood that Kerry would receive only 47.1% of the vote in Florida, with an exit poll of 49.7, is less than 3 in 1,000 (0.0028).

The likelihood that Kerry would receive only 50.8% of the vote in Pennsylvania, with an exit poll of 54.1, is less than 2 in 1,000 (0.0018).

"The likelihood of any two of these three statistical anomalies occurring together is on the order of 1 in 1 million. The odds against all three occurring together are 250 million to one. As much as we can say in social science that something is impossible, it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote counts in the three critical battleground states of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error."

Hearing that on Olbermann tonight was music to my ears. The steal of 04 was all the buzz at work this week. People who voted for Kerry at my office know this, It's common sence. The more people get on line and off the TV, the more the media may wake up and realize... truth pays too.

Thanks!:yourock:

This is in another DU thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=44351#44364

This was about the Freeman report. I have already e-mailed over 100 links from that page. We ALL need to do the same. They may have corporate dollars, but no spam filter on earth can stop those e-mails. KICK!

:dem:

0.15%

It's so simple. I posted this last week.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=201&topic_id=1776

... Freeman is now very publicly confirming the methodology you have been using for the past couple of years on Scoop.

"Ballot counting machines normally operate by passing light through holes punched in paper ballots. Investigators are looking into reports that the photo sensitivity was altered in some machines, in order that those ballots with weak punches would undercount, and therefore be discarded.

Experts in the field say this is one of the most subtle and hard to detect methods of altering election results. Suspicions have already been raised regarding the illegal readjustment of photo-optic sensors in past elections in Florida and elsewhere.

It is far easier to alter a counting machine than to fool three or four bipartisan humans scrutinizing every card, which is why hand counting is generally considered to be the most accurate method of counting."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x44740

We need to send this out to all of the media.

opti-scan ballots are the type where the voter uses a marker to complete an arrow (the ballot has the left and right sides of an arrow, with a blank space in the middle, next to the name of each candidate. the voter uses the marker to fill in the blank space, thus making the arrow complete next to the candidate of choice) Has nothing to do with light shining through the ballot, holes punched completely or incompletely, etc.


But I'd never heard of the bit with altering the photosensitivity of the punch card readers before. Thanks for posting it.

Someone also mentioned somewhere (I think on TableTalk) that another way that has been used to cheat with the punchcard system is to alter the thickness and grain alignment of the card stock, and possibly altering how strongly the die-cut marks the outline of the rectangle which becomes the chad, in order to make the ballots sent to *some* (read Dem-leaning) precincts more likely to leave hanging chads or dimpled chads. Apparently an article detailing how this cheating scheme has been used was supposed to appear in some magazine recently, but the publisher backed off.

Not sure if Flintdem, GregD, SoCal and Faun Otter have seen it yet and they should...

And if you feel inclined

:dem:

It some more...

and e-mailing the link

:toast:

:kick:

And they provided a downpage link to the scoop story

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00142.htm

2647: http://www.buzzflash.com/
1062:
458: http://buzzflash.com/
273: http://www.buzzflash.com
81: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x38627
80: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x38567
80: http://openthread.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/11/12501/861
37: http://www.legitgov.org/
35: http://buzzflash.com
27: http://www.buzzflash.org/
26: http://www.command-post.org/2004/
26: http://www.bopnews.com/archives/002328.html
21: http://legitgov.org/index.html
21: http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/017530.html
17: http://www.legitgov.org/index.html
16: http://thesquanderer.com/votingmachines.html
16: http://shadowbox.i8.com/stolen.htm
16: http://www.bopnews.com/
13: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=38567&mesg_id=38567
12: http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com/
12: http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/vote_fraud_.html
10: http://buzzflash.org/
9: http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/cat_irregularities.html
7: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x44423
7: http://openthread.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/10/2001/7917
6: http://www.audioasylum.com/forums/outside/messages/426947.html
6: http://pbd.blogspot.com/
6: http://radtimes.blogspot.com/
6: http://www.syntheticniche.com/comics/notblog_flash.html
6: http://www.johnkerryisthepresident.boscado.com/articles.htm
5: http://www.buzzflash.net/
4: http://www.buzzflash.com/default.asp
4: http://www.astroworld.us/archives/000448.html
4: http://www.commongroundcommonsense.org/index.php?showtopic=3273&hl=
4: http://legitgov.org/
4: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/energyresources/message/65842
4: http://www.thomasmc.com/1112.htm
3: http://www.livejournal.com/community/liberal/
3: http://www.command-post.org/2004/index.html
3: http://news.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=37138469&tid=apbushblair&sid=37138469&mid=1993
3: http://legitgov.org/index.html#breaking_news
3: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x35224
3: http://www.commongroundcommonsense.org/index.php?showtopic=3273
2: http://www.worldaffairsbrief.com

80 clicks from one tiny little post... shows that forums can be a very effective way to get the message out.

screen graphic? That was cool!

exit poll data from all previous presidential elections? What was the error rate before 2000 or electronic voting?

Freeman may have some clues. You might want to ask SarahLee to follow it up with him.

I have posted a TASK REQUEST on this for the DUBBVCC crew..
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=201&topic_id=2692&mesg_id=3116

I strongly encourage someone to take this on. It should not be too hard and will help everybody that is working on this issue greatly.
And as we know..

This thread
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=35224&mesg_id=35224
worked a treat.

VIDEO
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=201&topic_id=2089#3111

With a
:yourock:

to krkaufman

&

DISCUSSION
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=45819&mesg_id=45819

If anyone else spots media reports on the CALTECH vs FREEMAN debate
I would appreciate them being posted here. I will put a TASK REQUEST up in the DUBBVCC TASK THREAD on this.

From 11th Nov. Hadn't seen this. It is good albeit rather skeptical.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_11/005147.php

in upstate new york...

Great stuff! Thanks.

I'm sure all of this is making the NY legislature even more determined to reject Diebold and to require a verified paper ballot receipt from any electronic voting machine...

Ok, so now the blogosphere is full of silly conspiracy theorists, yet when the Dan Rather documents were shown as possible fakes, by freepers online, the internet was a wonderous place full of expert opinion, you just can't win with the <sarcasm on> "liberal" media

Especially 'cause there are some excellent links here!
I wonder whether any of this would have happened without DU? blackboxvoting.org wouldn't have gotten their $$$, Keith Olbermann might not have gotten wind of the funny numbers....
I think the original post was right. History happened right here!

Another interesting thing to note for those of us in red states who work around tons of neo-cons: on the days after the election, they were oh-so-happy, talking about their "mandates" and their goals to turn America into a theocratic fifedom.
When reports questioning the validity of exit polls verus the "actual" votes popped up briefly right after Kerry exited state left, they guffawed at the "sore loser" Democrats and their tin foil hats that such a thing as election fraud could happen in America.
But, this week, the slow drum of reality is seeping into THEIR inboxes as reports, such as have been posted here, are making their way around the e-mail circuit. I've had several come up to me and ask, "Are they really going to re-count votes in _____?" When I told them of Nader and the Glibs and their efforts and that, yes, it's very close, they shook their heads and said, "But, the media's not reporting this. This can't be true."
So, I'd send them to blackboxvoting.org and bloggermann.com and Cobb's website and other such informative places. I talked to them about how the stupid media is more interested in Scott Peterson than in voting rights and simply has been piss-poor in doing their jobs (getting a freeper to agree in regards to hating the media is a very easy task, btw).
Now, the smiles have turned into pinned-back phony grimaces as to what could be the biggest and most treasonous administration and cronie-complicity of our time.

Roll on Keith!
Roll on Randi!
Roll on Bloggers!
We're getting to them! :evilgrin: