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Please look at this spreadsheet and tell whether I'm paranoid.

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform

Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 12:44 PM
Original message

Please look at this spreadsheet and tell whether I'm paranoid.

Edited on Sat Nov-13-04 01:24 PM by Timefortruth

http://www.washingtoncountydemocrats.net/precinctvotecount.html

A little background:

This is in Washington County, Oklahoma.

Precincts 11 and 22 are white upper middle class.

Precinct 33 is poor with the most African-Americans living in it.

Precinct 28 had the best GOTV effort by the Democratic Party.

One precinct was recounted due to a problem at the polling place, but I don't know which one. I can check Monday and I very much hope it isn't the one I think it is. Anyone have any guesses?

Is there anyone out there who can tell me if these numbers make sense as compared to national turnout?

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:08 PM
Response to Original message

1. Anyone? nt

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bostonbabs

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #1

6. identify the numbers at the top of the columns

.....great work but hard to read....you should forward to vri@dnc.org this is the address that Kerry's brother asked people to forward to.....good luck

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #6

9. It looks great in Excel.

The headers are in order in there, I'm just not skilled enough to line them up. The last two columns are percent voting Kerry as compared to the number of Democrats, and Bush voters compared to registered Republicans.

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bj2110

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:10 PM
Response to Original message

2. Can you make it a little more user-friendly?

I don't know what the columns represent. Perhaps post it in a comma-delimited format so it can be input to excel?

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:16 PM
Response to Reply #2

3. OK, I'll try.

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #2

5. No I can't figure out how.

Oh well.

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GuardingVirginia

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:22 PM
Response to Original message

4. Washington Co Okla

Additional Information

Washington
Main Voting System Type: Optical
Registered Voters: 35811

Washington
# Precincts: 29

voting age Population: 36733
Registered Voters: 35811
census 2000 Population: 48996

Contact Info:
Brad Johnson
Secretary of the County Election Board
420 S. Johnstone
Bartlesville, OK 74003
(918) 337-2850

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 07:11 PM
Response to Reply #4

31. Please do not contact the BOE

It is premature without historical perspective, and they are nice people there. If there is something wrong they didn't have anything to do with it. Malfunctions happen without malfeasance.

If there is something here the local candidates my want to address it. That's the best place to start IMO, Kerry never had a prayer in Oklahoma anyway.

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noamnety

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:51 PM
Response to Original message

7. Little Chart for you

I was able to just highlight the chart, copy, and paste into excel.

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #7

11. I don't know enough to know if that is as strange as it looks.

Does anyone?

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ahimsa

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Sat Nov-13-04 01:59 PM
Response to Original message

8. Here are the numbers lined up


precinct reg  Kerry  Dem  Bush Repub  Ind L  c/d    e/f 
11       1475  208   345   659  1011  119   60.3%  65.2% 
12       1084  186   370   439   604  110   50.3%  72.7% 
13       1754  307   613   813   907  232 2 50.1%  89.6% 
15       1411  280   533   623   704  173 1 52.5%  88.5% 
22       3217  342   642  1345  2325  270   53.3%  57.8% 
27       1447  303   660   510   546  291   45.9%  93.4% 
28       2889  467   907  1248  1628  352 2 51.5%  76.7% 
31       3508  598  1124  1270  1785  599   53.2%  71.1% 
33        956  243   516   249   260  180   47.1%  95.8% 
46       1101  231   438   451   417  156   52.7% 108.2% 
48       1498  283   565   575   702  230   50.1%  81.9% 
51       2078  254   528   917  1335  215   48.1%  68.7% 
54       2158  361   712  1026  1287  150   50.7%  79.7% 
62       2115  461  1006   899   848  261   45.8% 106.0% 
71       1143  259   523   580   505  114 1 49.5% 114.9% 
73        658  112   260   361   331   67   43.1% 109.1% 
74        428   91   156   237   243   29   58.3%  97.5% 
75        786  135   268   418   446   72   50.4%  93.7% 
76        504  125   241   251   220   43   51.9% 114.1% 
77        836  176   400   438   379   57   44.0% 115.6% 
78        870  225   450   376   327   93   50.0% 115.0% 
79        906  228   420   401   372  114   54.3% 107.8% 
711       177   23    46    95   109   19 3 50.0%  87.2% 
  
Total   32999 5898 11723 14181 17291 3946 9 50.3%  82.0%

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #8

10. You're a saint.

How'd you do that?

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ahimsa

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:13 PM
Response to Reply #10

12. [pre] and [/pre] tags

I put the tags in the subject around the stuff I wanted lined up

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shelley806

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #8

13. If below is correct...

Edited on Sat Nov-13-04 02:31 PM by shelley806

(c)=Kerry, (d)= registered Dem, (e)=B*, (f)= registered Repub??

The thing that strikes the eye at once of course, if the above correlation is correct, is that once again, in all of those precincts with greater than 100%, there are more votes for B* than registered Republican.

Same thing occurred with great frequency in Florida. I just can't buy that this guy was so popular...all of it media spin and Rovian manipulations. I am very doubtful that he would exceed 100 % when I know of so many lifetime Republicans who voted for Kerry in this election, and this is west Texas!

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:39 PM
Response to Reply #13

16. The greater than 100% is explained by Democrats voting for Bush.

It simply means that there were more Bush voters in that precinct than there were Republicans. Which is predictable in the deep south, or attributable to independents.

What bothers me is that the Republican turnout is all over the place and really high where'd you'd not expect it.

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shelley806

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:37 PM
Response to Original message

14. But if this is right, look at the votes cast in precincts 11, 22, and 28..

It makes no sense; B* got 95% of the votes in 33? A Black precinct?And where you might expect high votes (but greater than 90% is a flag to me) he received more like the exit poll tallys...this IS wierd. Someone correct me if I've misinterpreted the values assigned to c,d,e, and f please...

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:42 PM
Response to Reply #14

17. c/d is Democrats divided by Kerry votes

Edited on Sat Nov-13-04 02:45 PM by Timefortruth

e/f is Republicans divided by Bush votes.

He didn't get 95% of the votes there. There were 492 votes cast in 33, of those Bush got 249 or 50.6% of the total cast.

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shelley806

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #17

20. 95.8% of votes went to B* in district 33; I never said that Kerry did..

B* sis in a Black Precinct. The initial post states that 11 and 22 are predominately white, rep; that 33 is predominately black...so look at the turnout for #33...like I said it makes no sense. Saw the same thing in Florida, which people tried to spin into the Dixiecrats.

There is a reason why, right before the election and even now, that there is so much spin about the huge #'s of Blacks, Hispanics, and even pro-Israeli Jews, who supported B*...It's a cover up for what was cheating, me thinks.

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noiretextatique

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Sat Nov-13-04 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #17

25. 50.6% for * in a black precinct?!?

national numbers for african-americans: 89% for kerry :shrug:

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shelley806

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Sat Nov-13-04 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #25

30. No, this says that in district #33, a Black precinct, 95% voted Bush!

n/t

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shelley806

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:38 PM
Response to Original message

15. Kick. This one needs attention!

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idiosyncratic

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:54 PM
Response to Original message

18. Can someone explain this for me.

I flunked college algebra and dropped out of the statistics class.

What does that chart mean, and what do the numbers mean.

Thanks.

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noamnety

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Sat Nov-13-04 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #18

21. What the numbers show

Every single republican registered voter PLUS some voted for Bush.

About half the dems voted for Kerry.

So, either Republicans were extremely motivated and dems were apathetic, a huge number of democrats and/or independents voted for Bush, numbers/machines were altered, or dem voters were suppressed/not counted.

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idiosyncratic

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Sat Nov-13-04 02:54 PM
Response to Original message

19. Sorry, dupe . . . eom

Edited on Sat Nov-13-04 02:54 PM by apolitical no more

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shelley806

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Sat Nov-13-04 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #19

22. Overall it shows that the % of registered republicans who voted

for B* was much higher than registered Dems voting for Kerry; in those cases where the %ages are greater than 100%, it means that Dems voted for B*, and 'crossed over.' I find this as unlikely as some of the stats in Florida...you don't get poor people waiting hours to vote for B* in large numbers. Tres fishy.

I'm copying this one into my Election Fraud File...it is huge!

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 03:29 PM
Response to Original message

23. Here it is broken out by percent for each candidate

Without regard to party.


pct             Kerry   Bush
711		19.5%	80.5%
22		20.3%	79.7%
51		21.7%	78.3%
73		23.7%	76.3%
11		24.0%	76.0%
75		24.4%	75.6%
54		26.0%	74.0%
28		27.2%	72.8%
13		27.4%	72.6%
74		27.7%	72.3%
77		28.7%	71.3%
12		29.8%	70.2%
71		30.9%	69.1%
15		31.0%	69.0%
31		32.0%	68.0%
48		33.0%	67.0%
76 	        33.2%	66.8%
46		33.9%	66.1%
62		33.9%	66.1%
79		36.2%	63.8%
27		37.3%	62.7%
78		37.4%	62.6%
33		49.4%	50.6%	

It makes more sense this way I guess.

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noiretextatique

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Sat Nov-13-04 04:10 PM
Response to Reply #23

26. i don't believe the precinct numbers are accurate

no way * got 50% of the vote in any heavily black precinct in america...no way.

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idiosyncratic

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Sat Nov-13-04 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #23

28. Psst . . . [off topic]

I love the quote in your sig. I've watched "Next Stop, Wonderland" many, many times. Very funny use of that quote.

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ahimsa

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Sat Nov-13-04 11:30 PM
Response to Reply #23

36. Much more sense...

the numbers showing % turnout by party are relatively meaningless! I wish people would stop using them unless they are in the raw data (which they would not be in voting results but might be in exit polls if they asked the voter's party).

For example,


33        956  243   516   249   260  180   47.1%  95.8%

If you ignore the % turnout by party (which I suggest are meaningless), it's quite possible based on these numbers (although highly unlikely, but bear with me), that no republicans at all turned out to vote! Every democrat turned out but half voted for Kerry and half for Bush. Those % turnout by party numbers are pulled out of thin air!

The one exception I can think of is if they tally the number of votes where the voter voted for a straight party ticket. I think it's reasonable to assume they were probably registered for that party.

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idiosyncratic

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Sat Nov-13-04 03:59 PM
Response to Original message

24. Wow . . . now I get it. Thanks!

I was a Nader voter in 2000 (I've always voted Third Party).

This year I voted for Kerry. I know there were lots of others like me.

My 60-year old neighbors voted for * in 2000. This year they, and three of their four children, voted for Kerry. (Their daughter is a fundie.)

I just cannot imagine any registered Dems (unless they are those odd "Dixicrats") voting for *.

No way those results could be valid!!!

Thanks for clearing it up for me.

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noiretextatique

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Sat Nov-13-04 04:13 PM
Response to Original message

27. oklahoma...hmmm

jc watts is from there, right? many conservative blacks there? i suppose it's possible, but it's hard to imagine * getting 50% of the vote among black voters...it should be more like the national average...11%, being generous, maybe 18%, but 50%...i find that hard to believe.

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spotbird

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Sat Nov-13-04 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #27

29. 33 isn't all black, but more blacks live there than any other precinct.

It is all poor however.

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txindy

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Sat Nov-13-04 07:11 PM
Response to Original message

32. Send this info. out to Bev Harris. It warrants a much closer look at OK

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 08:06 PM
Response to Reply #32

35. What we need is perspective.

Until I can get the historical data including this in the general clearinghouse of suspicious data is premature.

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sandnsea

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Sat Nov-13-04 07:14 PM
Response to Original message

33. Bartlesville 3.2% black

I would bet even a black precinct would have a tough time hitting 50%. My question, where do the 7% Native Americans live?

And how'd these precincts vote in 1996?

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Timefortruth

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Sat Nov-13-04 08:04 PM
Response to Reply #33

34. When I said the most African-Americans are in 33,

I may not have been specific enough. What I meant was that it has the most blacks of any precinct in Washington Co. live there. It is poor and (in general) the African-Americans in this community live there.

As for the Native Americans they are generally assimilated here, with pockets of housing in no particular precinct.

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