6/18 Election Model: OBAMA NOW LEADING IN FL, EXPECTED EV JUMPS TO 350 - x

Obama has pulled ahead in Florida in the latest Quinnipiac poll and increased his PA lead.
As a result, his expected electoral vote increased from 324 yesterday to 350 today.
His 2-party projected vote share has also jumped: from 52.3% to 52.8%.

If the election were held today, Obama would win the electoral vote by 350 – 188.
The State model projects that he would win 52.8% of the 2-party vote.
The National model projects indicates that he would win 52.9%.

Obama leads the latest state poll aggregate average by 46.2 – 42.7%.
He also leads the latest national poll aggregate by 46.8 – 43.0%.

The electoral vote is the average of a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation.
Obama won all 5000 trials; therefore, there is a virtual 100% probability of winning the electoral vote.
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The latest polls indicate that these states will flip to Obama: CO, IA, MO, NM, OH, VA, NC, NV, FL (new)
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But there’s a catch:
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