2008 Election Model: Predicted the Electoral and Popular vote … but not the True Vote

TruthIsAll      source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008ElectionModel365EV.htm

November 11, 2008

The Final 2008 Election Model (EM) projection exactly matched the 365–173 electoral and recorded popular vote. The model projected that Obama would receive 365.3 expected electoral votes with a 53.1–44.9% share. He has a 65.3–57.4m recorded vote margin.

But the landslide was denied. Obama did better than the EM and recorded vote indicates. Only 124m votes have been recorded; 140m were forecast. According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105m were recorded of 110.8m cast.  Democrats traditionally win 70–80% of the uncounted vote.

Obama’s Expected EV is calculated as the product sum of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral vote. In equation form:

Expected EV  =  Σ Win Prob(i) * EV(i),   for i = 1,51 states

The state win probability is a function of the final 2–3 average polling spread and 3% margin of error (1200–1800 total sample). These parameters are input to the Excel normal distribution probability function to calculate the win probability.

The expected EV was close to the 365.8 average EV obtained in the Monte Carlo simulation. Obama won all 5000 trials; his total electoral vote win probability was 100%.

The EM projected projected that Obama would win by 75.9–64.2m out of 143m total votes cast and capture 60% of undecided voters (the base case UVA scenario). The 75% UVA scenario gave him 53.9% (or 55.0% of the two-party vote) and 379.5 EV.

The 2008 Election Calculator (EC) is a complementary True Vote model that is based on an estimated, feasible returning-2004-voter mix. It projected that Obama would win the True Vote with a 54.5–44.4% share (78.3–63.8m).

The EC also projected a fraud scenario: 3% of total votes cast are uncounted and 3% switched to McCain. Obama's True Vote margin would then be reduced to 52.2–46.8% share (72.8–65.2m).

Right wing pundits are claiming that Obama’s 8 million vote margin is not a mandate, unlike the Bush 3m “mandate” in 2004. But we know that Obama won by even more than 8 million votes. The True Vote will only be revealed, if there is a real investigation by the courts, Congress and/or the Media. Don’t hold your breath.

2004/2008 Election Model and Election Calculator
(input assumptions and base case scenario results)

2008
EM - Obama 53.1%   365.3 expected EV   60% UVA.
EC - Obama 54.5%; feasible mix of returning 2004 voters and 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares.

2004
EM - Kerry 51.3%   337 expected EV, 75% UVA  State Exit Poll Aggregate (Edison-Mitofsky WPE, "unadjusted"): 52–47%
EC - Kerry 53.2%; feasible mix of returning 2000 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.