Latest news on Ohio Provisional Ballot count 11/17, am

From the Cleveland Plain Dealer:

http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/summit/1100687565159090.xml

From the Mansfield News Journal:

http://www.mansfieldnewsjournal.com/news/stories/20041117/localnews/1605240.html

<snip>
Summit County election board members spent more than an hour discussing the effects of dimples and piercings on the punch-card ballots used in the county. In discussing 31 so-called "damaged" ballots which were either torn or placed incorrectly into the voting machine by voters the two Democratic board members were more inclined to count dimples impressions made in the ballot by the stylus. But the two Republican board members balked, favoring piercings instead, where the stylus had perforated the ballot.

The board ultimately decided to count only the piercings on a few damaged ballots, and it will ask the Ohio secretary of state to give it a ruling on dimples.

<snip>

.... regarding ballots where the chad was not fully removed? Someone might remember better, but I believe their law requires 2(?) corners to be detached in order to be a valid vote.

OH Revised Code:
http://onlinedocs.andersonpublishing.com/oh/lpExt.dll?f=templates&fn=main-h.htm&cp=PORC
§ 3515.04. Procedure for recount; stopping recount.

At the time and place fixed for making a recount, the board of elections, in the presence of all witnesses who may be in attendance, shall open the sealed containers containing the ballots to be recounted, and shall recount them. If a county used punch card ballots and if a chad is attached to a punch card ballot by three or four corners, the voter shall be deemed by the board not to have recorded a candidate, question, or issue choice at the particular position on the ballot, and a vote shall not be counted at that particular position on the ballot in the recount. Ballots shall be handled only by the members of the board or by the director or other employees of the board. Witnesses shall be permitted to see the ballots but they shall not be permitted to touch them, and the board shall not permit the counting or tabulation of votes shown on the ballots for any nomination, or for election to any office or position, or upon any question or issue, other than the votes shown on such ballots for the nomination, election, question or issue concerning which a recount of ballots was applied for.

intent of voter is the ultimate guide.

Looks like this one went on the books in 2001. I think they felt that by having a firm, definitive procedure in plain English they could avoid 2000 FL.

Partial/Complete Results for 4 counties (from news reports). County name is followed by the reported 2004 Kerry-vs-Repub results of non-Provisional ballots. Preliminary projection is based on those percentages.

Cuyahoga (Kerry 67% - Repub. 33%)
12,000/25,000 (48%) Provisional Processed
8,000/12,000 Accepted (66% Acceptance)

Projection:
16,500/25,000 Accepted
Kerry: 11,055
Repub: 5,445


Summit (Kerry 57% - Repub. 43%)
5,932/5,932 (100%) Provisional Processed
4,732/5,932 Accepted (80% Acceptance)

Projection:
Kerry: 2,697
Repub: 2,035


Richland (Kerry 40% - Repub 60%)
1,357/1,357 (100%) Provisional Processed
1,212/1,357 Accepted (89% Acceptance)

Projection -vs- ACTUAL (This county has reported the actual results of the recount so we can compare.)

Kerry: 485 (projected) - compared to - 578 or 48% (actual)
Repub: 727 (projected) - compared to - 610 or 50% (actual)

(Side note: Results mirror that of general Ohio election. According to traditional thinking, provisional ballot voting mirrors general election results and rarely tilt heavily to either side.)


Geauga (Kerry 40% - Repub. 60%)
669/669 (100%) Provisional Processed
592/669 Accepted (89% Acceptance)

Projection:
Kerry: 237
Repub: 355


** GENERAL SUMMARY **

19,958/155,337 Provisional Ballots Confirmed Processed (13% - a good sample size.)
14,536/19,958 Confirmed Accepted (73% Accepted)

Democrat Counties (2/4 cited) have 71% Acceptance Rate
Repub. Counties (2/4 cited) have 89% Acceptance Rate

It has been suggested that 60% of the Provisional Ballots state-wide come from Dem. counties and 40% from Repubs. If that's the case, then here is how the final Provisional Totals might break down based on the numbers we're seeing now:

155,337 Total Provisional Ballots

93,202 from Dem Counties. Assuming the Dem. 73% Acceptance Rate, then only 68,038 will be counted.
62,134 from Repub. Counties. Assuming the Repub. 89% Acceptance Rate, then only 55,299 will be counted.

Finally, assume Kerry gets 80% of the vote in Dem. counties, and 48% in Repub. Counties (this is a realistic percentage based on the above results) then:

Dem. County vote breakdown:
68,038 Accepted Provisional Ballots
Kerry: 54,430
Repub: 13,608

Repub. County vote breakdown:
55,299 Accepted Provisional Ballots
Kerry: 26,544
Repub: 28,756

Net Gain for Kerry: 38,610
Which would cut down the state lead the Repubs. have from 132,000 to 93,390.

That's my optimistic look at the situation based on the numbers coming in. Of course, it's still entirely plausible that the percentages will resemble the final state totals, and Kerry's gain would be slim to none. We'll see how the rest of the numbers look. As they come in, I'll update my projection.

with all of the number crunching that's going on I'm left with the same impression I had in school: Math Sucks. Everyone comes to different conclusions... maybe 1+1 does = 3

Gore did not get 90% of the 2000 Provisionals. I'm not sure where that poster heard that (source?).

The realistic expectation is that Kerry gets something between 48% (worst case) to 80% (optimisticly). Throw in the fact that a higher percentage of ballots are being tossed in Dem. counties (as you can see happening in Cayahoga County where 1/3 are being tossed), then Kerry's net gains decrease.

At this point, I'd say you could reasonably expect Kerry to get somewhere between 61-67% of the provisional votes counted.

I just wanted to throw that in the mix.

Welcome to DU CementDude

:smoke:

Welcome to DU!! :toast: