Ohio Provisionals - Official Count Not Trending Well for Kerry

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

Results slow to come in, but so far with 2.71% of the precincts reporting, 7 Counties report new totals. I compared their new numbers with those prior of the provisional count and figured out how many provisional votes Kerry and Repub. received:

Kerry: + 997 provisional votes (41%)
Repub: + 1,428 provisional votes (59%)

Before the provisional count, the total vote breakdown for these 7 Counties were as follows:

Kerry: 58,713 or 44%
Repub: 75,203 or 56%

With the new provisional votes added in:

Kerry: 59,710 or 44%
Repub: 76,631 or 56%

So no change in the percentages. Provisional votes are breaking in line with election night, pre-provisional reports (Repub. received a higher percentage of the provisionals, but not enough to bump the percentages by any significant amount).

However, if this keeps up, then the Repub's margin of victory might increase state-wide.

(EDIT: Not likely to happen. I still expect Kerry to get *some* gain. At this point, it doesn't look to be significant.)

counting.

as follow:
Best case scenario is that Kerry will have a "net gain" of 40,000 votes from the provisional ballots count.
The worst case scenario is that Kerry will have a "net gain" of 10,000 votes from the provisional ballots count.
The most feasible scenario is that Kerry will have a "net gain" approximately 20,000 to 25,000 votes from the provisional ballots count.

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/ProvBallots.htm

County Number County Name Provisional Ballots Issued
1 Adams 184
2 Allen 1,374
3 Ashland 629
4 Ashtabula 1,142
5 Athens 2,504
6 Auglaize 647
7 Belmont 1,067
8 Brown 326
9 Butler 5,793
10 Carroll 304
11 Champaign 555
12 Clark 1,279
13 Clermont 1,818
14 Clinton 378
15 Columbiana 1,085
16 Coshocton
17 Crawford 424
18 Cuyahoga 24,788
19 Darke
20 Defiance 541
21 Delaware 1,891
22 Erie 1,072
23 Fairfield 1,306
24 Fayette 293
25 Franklin 14,443
26 Fulton 381
27 Gallia 574
28 Geauga 668
29 Greene 2,127
30 Guernsey 558
31 Hamilton 14,386
32 Hancock 791
33 Hardin 349
34 Harrison 89
35 Henry 250
36 Highland 494
37 Hocking 251
38 Holmes 170
39 Huron 670
40 Jackson 422
41 Jefferson 650
42 Knox
43 Lake 1,975
44 Lawrence 599
45 Licking 1,565
46 Logan 650
47 Lorain 4,134
48 Lucas
49 Madison
50 Mahoning
51 Marion 928
52 Medina 1,266
53 Meigs 240
54 Mercer
55 Miami
56 Monroe 132
57 Montgomery 9,227
58 Morgan 160
59 Morrow 314
60 Muskingum 871
61 Noble 75
62 Ottawa 469
63 Paulding
64 Perry 428
65 Pickaway 553
66 Pike 285
67 Portage 1,445
68 Preble 493
69 Putnam 246
70 Richland 1,357
71 Ross 537
72 Sandusky 760
73 Scioto 867
74 Seneca 494
75 Shelby 791
76 Stark 6,653
77 Summit
78 Trumbull 2,700
79 Tuscarawas 987
80 Union 436
81 Van Wert 297
82 Vinton 129
83 Warren 1,465
84 Washington 643
85 Wayne 818
86 Williams 694
87 Wood 2,655
88 Wyandot 138
135,149

Yeah, sure, provisionals, and absentees, and military and overseas votes are interesting.

But, a lot of Ohio is punch card -- "chad ridden" as some would say. A lot of it is optical scan -- thought to be accurate, but only with robust auditing and hand counting. Machine settings and computer programming for the counting of optical scan can throw it off......WAY off.

The kinds of statistical studies and investigations that are just starting in various states (plus 900 reports of machine problems, says www.verifiedvoting.org) lead me to believe that the ENTIRE STATE needs to be carefully recounted and documented and audited. Don't let yourself be taken for a ride by the BushCo media about the provisionals.

In fact, a citizen rally is going to ask for the entire state to revote!

I doubt that will happen. However, robust recounts of everything that's countable could lead to plenty of flipped votes. At this point, however, the BIG picture goal is to expose fraudulent and flawed voting mechanisms, and let the chips fall where they fall.

Hamilton, Cuyahuga and Franklin have the most.

Question why so many provisionals in these counties. GOP poll challengers?

Cuyahoga County alone had 12% of Ohio's votes. Franklin and Hamilton are only a little smaller (say 2/3 the size).

Hamilton is "red" btw (53-47)

but I'd bet my left nipple that that provisionals are a bright blue. Same with all the other urban areas.

If you look at the numbers, there's a larger proportion of provisionals (to the actual votes) in the larger cities, and (not surprisingly) a similarly larger proportion of minority voters. That's also where the challengers parked their asses, where voting machines were the most unreliable, where queues were long, etc.

It was assumed that Kerry would pull more provisionals than the Repub, regardless of the county. The idea being that most of these provisionals were voters who were denied their right to cast a vote on election night.

In other words, if each candidate gets their county percentage worth of votes for all the provisionals, then state-wide you're going to see the 155,000+ break 51% Repub and 49% Kerry - where the Repub. actually *increases* his 133,000 margin by a few thousand.

Your speculation is based on a handful of silly assumptions, most notably that provisional ballots represent the same proportion of the vote, by county, as the actuals. They don't.

To wit: Adams County (one of the skeery puggie rural counties to have reported): 1.5% provisional to actual vs Cuyahoga: 3.7% ratio.

Nobody said that "it was assumed that Kerry would pull more provisionals than the Repub, regardless of the county." What was said, and is true, is that the majority of the majority of the provisionals will go to Kerry. Likely 70% of 70%.

Nice try, though.

In Cuyahoga county nearly 1/3 of the ballots are being disqualified (vs. only 10-15% of the ballots in the smaller counties).

More wacky 'rithmetic on your part. If one third are being disqualified, that leaves... uhm... two thirds. Follow me so far? 2/3=.67. Still with me? Okay .67 is 67%. Which sounds an awful lot like 70% (this ain't an exact science, ya know). Which is what I just said: 70% of 70%.

And 10-15% of the "smaller" counties doesn't add up to shit, when compared to the bigguns. In fact, it helps round the number back up to 70%.

Any other objections?

You are mistaking me for someone else. I only posted one reply to your post (your response makes it seem like I had posted others).

Unfortunately, if you add all the small counties up they exceed the sum of the large couties. This means that the total number of provisionals actually accepted and counted will weight more heavily toward the small counties, which will tend to even out the larger percentage in Cuyahoga.

I agree with others posting here. I expect the provisional ballots to ultimately break at approximately the same ratio as the unofficial tallies. Time will tell -- there is no point in arguing now.

Sorry for mistaking you for another poster. Mea culpa.

That said, Athens (Ohio U.) Butler (Hamilton), Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Franklin (Columbus), Hamilton (Cincinnati), Lorain (Oberlin), Lucas (Toledo), Mahoning (Youngstown), Montgomery (Dayton), Stark (Canton), Summit (Akron), Trumbull (Warren), and Wood (Bowling Green) represent 102,654 of the provisionals. They are all either urban, with a large minority population, or college towns. They will pull dramatically for Kerry.

The other 53K votes may distribute per the election (though doubtful, having excluded counties like Clark and Greene which, though won by Bush, are also heavy minority communities - where the bulk of the provisionals will likely be found). But there is no way that the provisionals en toto will reflect the same ratios as the actuals.

'Taint gonna happen.

Actually, you are wrong in assuming these counties will pull dramatically for Kerry. In fact, Bush took Butler county (66% to 34%), Hamilton county (53% to 47%), and Wood county (54% to 46%).

Other posts show the provisionals are breaking Bush's way as well. Personally, as I have said before, I expect the provisionals to pretty much reflect breakdowns on election night. That appears to be holding true.

My numbers are right for the results we have so far. When Adams and Cuyahoga do come it, I'm sure the percentages will change - but one thing will not - and that's the number of provisional votes that have thus far gone to the Repubs and Kerry.

The margin is decreasing. What will we need now? 92% of the rest? 95%?

You do the math for us.

(Edit: Good point about the 1/3 being tossed in Cuyahoga. That diminishes the potential Kerry gain in that county.)

As I observed downstream, somewhat facetiously, Athens County (heavy Dem) has not counted their provisionals, and yet are included in the table proffered. And Adams, BTW, has, so no need to wait.

So have Clinton, Gallia, Morrow, Tuscarawas, and Vinton, representing all of 3,981 provisional ballots, or 2.5% of the total. I would do the math to determine the margin we "need now", except there ain't no math to do. Nothing has changed, nothing is unexpected, nothing is unusual, nothing means shit.

If Kerry got 70% of the approved provisional ballots (70% of the total ballots). The Kerry "net gain" from the provisional ballots will be 32,000 votes. This will be the ultimate best scenario that Kerry can have in this provisional ballots count.
However the more realistic scenario is that Kerry “net gain” from the provisional ballots will be around 25,000 votes.

Have a pretzel.

even fi there was some fraud or irregularities which we DO HAVE TO FIX I think he lost fair and square.

2.7% of the precincts?? So what!

provisionals - don't think they knew Exactly where they would come from -- just in total. Also, they were comparing to historic %'s

Do you think bush still "won"?

My position is, unless the suppression of voters and the manipulation of voters such as too few machines in heavily Democratic precincts is corrected, then there will never be a fair election.

And I would love to see this fairness applied retroactively. We would see then who wins hands-down. And it won't be bush.

I understand what you're saying. But I don't think Kerry "lost" the election any more than I've "lost" my money when somebody robs me.

and thats the real problem. The vote is necessary to American Freedom that we are so proud of. Kerry may have lost even IF this was a fair election, but that really doesnt matter as much as preserving our vote.

When there was fraud ... as you acknowledged.

they checked each one to make sure they didn't already vote>?

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/11-02-04.htm

and

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

when you click on anything that says that says Secretary of State the file comes up missing.

where they're posting the updated totals.

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

I guess I never believed the "should break 90%" for Kerry, anyway. But I did think that overall they'd favor him. They still might, but it sure looks like they're going to track the overall percentages.

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/Privacy.aspx

Disclaimer & Terms of Use:

The Ohio Secretary of State is not responsible for the content or privacy practices of Web sites that utilize our news feed; nor should a link to the Ohio Secretary of State's Web site be construed as an endorsement by the Ohio Secretary of State, of the originating Web site's content, services, or practices. To ensure you are receiving the most up-to-date results being reported, you must return to http://election.sos.state.oh.us.

They're saying they're not responsible for OTHER websites that may use their news, or link to them.

by far the largest and most Democratic county.

Athens County (home of O.U., alma mater of yours truly) validated no provisional ballots per our O.P.'s panicked observation.

According to the link provided by the OP, the Athens County total presidential vote (presumably including provisionals) is 27,468. Which compares exactly to the Unofficial Results (presumably excluding provisionals) of... 27,468.

Jeebus! It's worse than we thought! Head for the hills! (Hocking, of course...)

n/t

No, help out.

Seems to me the precincts that came in first are really small precincts, probably rural areas, where no one lives but Larry, Darrell, and his other brother Darrell.

who lives and votes there also!

so if there's any funny business manipulating the provisionals, like throwing out Dem provisionals disproportionately without just cause, there is some opportunity for it to be redressed, right?

...as you know gapower there's some bad data out there.

Edit: disinformation?

It's an evil Republican plant website, designed to show false data and crush our hopes. Geez....

"designed to show false data"

Gosh, that sounds like the official Ohio site to me.

:crazy:

from election night count.

Both sites are legit. The one with more pictures is the ongoing tally that includes provisionals.

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/ProvBallots.htm

Look at the site you *think* is real.

Do you see this:

U.S. President / Vice President: November 2, 2004
Unofficial Results

They are both *real*. The one you prefer is stagnant data from November 2nd.

Please don't screw up the tallies with your irrationality.

those posters have less then x number of posts to DU - then it means that the total number of posts saying BushWonKerryLost represents x number of (fill in the blank). Realists? Naysayers? Downers? Anticipators? Visionaries? Pragmatists?

I don't know how many posts X equals, but the last thing that needs to happen is everyone jumping to conclusions based on BS information. These statistical conversations are hard enough.

edit: by the way, Bloggerman just posted again

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/Privacy.aspx

Disclaimer & Terms of Use:

The Ohio Secretary of State is not responsible for the content or privacy practices of Web sites that utilize our news feed; nor should a link to the Ohio Secretary of State's Web site be construed as an endorsement by the Ohio Secretary of State, of the originating Web site's content, services, or practices. To ensure you are receiving the most up-to-date results being reported, you must return to http://election.sos.state.oh.us.

Click on anything to link with Secretary's office and you get this



HTTP Error 404

404 Not Found

The Web server cannot find the file or script you asked for. Please check the URL to ensure that the path is correct.

Please contact the server's administrator if this problem persists.

who the Hell are they?????

and by they I mean the web site owners not the posters

Stop with your insane conspiracy theory and try to read things more carefully please.

You're just distracting people.

dupe

It's their website. But please, enjoy your fantasy.

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/Default.aspx

I get no error message or 404 that you describe.

The disclaimer that seems to be such a red flag for you is a standard disclaimer that comes from the link where people put an RSS feed on THEIR OWN website.

For example, the Stonewall Democrats might put an RSS feed from this SECRETARY OF STATE website on their website.

The SOS doesn't want to be held responsible for the information when that happens.

Do you understand?

that there has been continuing confusion about these Ohio statistics, and there IS some problem with the Secy of State website. We need to be very careful here - some of the data is corrupted.

that http://election.sos.state.oh.us and http://sos.state.oh.us are both OFFICIAL WEBSITES FOR THE OHIO SECRETARY OF STATE!

the election server ISN'T "private" as someone is rabidly claiming.

I haven't been able to get to the Ohio SOS site since Sunday pm. Tried my bookmarks, links here, links through google, nothing works.
I really want the 2000 results for each county.

Clearing your cache or deleting all your temporary internet files.

Alternately, you should be able to find that data here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.president.html

But the Cnn stuff will do for now. thanks. Does this link work

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos//results/index.html

That's the one I used for months.

Depending on your browser, maybe it does not like that second slash. Try:

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/sos/results/index.html

Still no good. Odd thing is, the SOS site is the ONLY site I have a problem with.

Mods -- Please don't delete this message. I am cross-referencing it to get it moved around as I am not eligible to start posts yet.

I cannot start a post yet, but everyone needs to spread it around!!! as of today, Nov 19th, 2004....The Ohio Democratic Party is giving an email to URGE Kerry to retract his concession!!!! It's that vri@dnc.org email, however, remember when Cam Kerry said it should be referred to DNC???? According to The Ohio Democratic Party vri@dnc.org IS CAMERON KERRYS EMAIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SPREAD THIS AROUND NOW!!!!! AND GIVE KERRY YOUR URGES TO WITHDRAW CONCESSION AT THAT EMAIL.

http://www.ohiodems.org/index.php?display=ReleaseDetails&id=197520

I do quote, from this website!

Vote Fraud or Mistakes – Information about fraud or mistake can be reported the Ohio Democratic Party.

You may also share any concerns about voter fraud or mistakes the Secretary of State by emailing: election@sos.state.oh.us
Contacting Kerry. If you would like to urge Kerry to withdraw his concession or share information about election fraud, Cameron Kerry, John’s brother is collecting comments. His email is: vri@dnc.org

Cam Kerry's email less than a week after the election stated the following.....

"If you have specific factual information about voting problems that could be helpful to the lawyers doing their job, please send it to vri@dnc.org rather than to me."

But Ohio Democratic Party is claiming it is his email!!!!! Get this on the main posts please, something BIG is going on!!!!!

just give me 5 minutes, and then check.

:bounce:

You are cross-posting it because the last place you posted it you were told that there was nothing new in it, and that it was merely getting people excited over nothing. You read those responses, and yet you then came here and cross-posted it.

You are not being truthful.

Doesn't hurt to be optimistic.

I would appreciate accusations not being whined around. This is about my 20th post and you will see on my other posts that I am not qualified until possibly my 10th. I don't appreciate your statements. And I don't care what "I'm told", I am entitled to my opinion. Thanks.

This was not worth being posted once, let alone cross-posted and then posted yet again by another member. Someone seems to want this message all over DU for some reason. The first place that it was posted knowledgeable members told the poster that this was not news and was inflammatory.

but he is trying to break through on DU.

Will this flip the election to Kerry by 12/15.

I don't give two shits if unamerican rethugs riot in the streets. Either they can deal with the facts or they can leave our country.

If switched from Kerry to Bush -- the count would be 272 Kerry (*), 266 Bush (if everything else stays the same)

Do you know what the totals on the recounts are right now.

Will there be a march on Columbus?

I'm suprised this hasn't hit the n00z yet but shows that the election is truly over. Seriously, time to move on and get over this shit so I can get back to my hobbies. This political junkie shit is killing me. Thank goodness this the last election, lol.

If one more person says it's over before the inaugaration takes place I'm gonna lose it. I'll fucking lose it. If you are gonna be in this forum is it too much to ask for a little Fucking respect? Most of us have exhausted ourselves with this fight and are spending every minute we can STILL continuing the battle anyway. Why? Because we are PATRIOTS. Because we are AMERICANS. Because we hold on to that little shred of fucking hope that America, the land that we love, can regain her pride. It is NOT over. It will NEVER BE OVER. And This phase of it is NOT OVER UNTIL THE INAUGURATION.

So please, find something better to do then your attempts at demotivating those fighting with every ounce of energy they have for YOU and YOUR COUNTRYMEN and WOMEN. The efforts at demotivation are futile. WE WILL NOT give in. WE WILL NOT roll over. WE WILL NOT lose our passion.

GET IT????????

Thank god this was the last election. Now King George can rule in peace without any more distractions. Can't wait till Queen Jenna takes over.

Look deeper!!

HOpe you passed this on to "the right people."