Exit polls are an indicator but what if they don't match in key

hangloose

(554 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Nov-02-04 05:49 PM
Original message

Exit polls are an indicator but what if they don't match in key

States? Does anyone have a statistical model that correlates exit polls to actual vote count as a percent? What if in a few swing states the exit polls and the actual vote count are not aligned. What does this mean? And is this a lagging indicator that something is afoot?

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flowomo

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Nov-02-04 05:51 PM
Response to Original message

1. forget this shit altogether.... these numbers are meaningless

wait a few hours and get some facts

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CarolynEC

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Tue Nov-02-04 05:56 PM
Response to Original message

2. There are so many variables that go into exit polls...

Edited on Tue Nov-02-04 06:05 PM by CarolynEC

... that it's best to just ignore them, IMO.

For example, here on the East Coast, the whole contingent of after-work voters is just getting to the voting booth now.

Also, participation in exit polling is voluntary -- there's no way to be sure of a representative sample.

Best just to keep plugging away until the polls close and the official counts start coming in.

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Tue Apr 30th 2024, 10:04 AM
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