Mitofsky Writes Olbermann

In an unsolicited e-mail to Countdown, Warren Mitofsky wrote that he was “struck by the misinformation” in our program. He heads Mitofsky International, which along with Edison Media Research, conducted the election night exit polling for the television networks and the Associated Press. I referred to the variance among the early and late exit polls, and the voting. Insisting “there were no early exit polls” released by his company or Edison, Mr. Mitofsky wrote “the early release came from unauthorized leaks to bloggers who posted misinformation.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/

Wasn't one of those bloggers CNN?

it was mostly Drudge and a few political sites.

posted the numbers. They came from the same sources that issued late-day exit polls, they said they weren't going to pretend that they didn't have the numbers when they did.

Several trusted blogs said so.

I'm guessing the networks didn't release the numbers because they didn't reflect Rove's predictions.

I'm confused what does this mean?

Zogby says he’s at peace with his own Election Night forecast - made not with the Mitofsky or Edison exit polling, but with his own polls. He saw Florida and Ohio both “trending” towards Kerry, and producing a triple-digit victory for the Democrat. Within the pollster’s margin of error, he made no mistakes. But he may not be as thoroughly sanguine as he suggests. Off-air, in the preparatory interview standard for all guests, his November 2 forecast was mentioned.

“Thanks,” he said, “for reminding me.”

“But, Keith, 20 percent don’t think the president is legitimate. And worse yet, if you take the other half, those that didn’t vote for him, about half of the other side doesn’t think the president is legitimate. That just hasn’t existed for a long, long time in our system."

Right... not since the LAST election.

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/news/editorial/10258265.htm
Quote from article:

"Since exit polls historically have been quite accurate, and the differences as likely to have been in one candidate's favor as the other's, we're confronted with the question of what caused them. Given the indefensible withholding of the full exit-poll data by Edison Media Research, Mitofsky International, the Associated Press and various networks, we can only hazard guesses based on what was available election night. The obvious speculation, alluded to above, is that the exit samples were decidedly nonrandom."

Just release the data, Mr. Mitofsky, and quit your bellyaching!

Thanks!

I got a copy of an early leak in mid-afternoon on Election Day. It correctly had Kerry losing Colorado and Arizona, and showed a tie in Iowa. Of course, it had Kerry winning FL and OH.

Also give him your source; he'll keep it confidential.

kolbermann@msnbc.com

<<

Mitofsky compared those leaks to “the score at half time at a football game” and said the “leakers were reading complex displays intended for trained statisticians. The leakers did not understand what they were reading and the bloggers did not know they were getting misinformation.”

>>

What does mean by not understanding what they read? Seems kind of bogus to me. He should release the polls, so we can all make an adequate evaluation, instead of just taking his word for it...

Keith,

Why haven't you or someone else talked seriously about the HORRIBLE obvious fraud in Volusia? I mean that is so obviously fraud. I am a computer scientists and if you have "network drives" on your computer as Volusia does (from Blackboxvoting.org), that means that the central tabulating computer was hooked up to other computers.

THAT'S RIGHT! Not just a phone call to the modem there, but a constant communication between that computer and other computers. THAT IS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THERE. Ok, that in itself doesn't "prove" anything, right. (not to mention the whole trash thing and gross vote changes)

I think the thing that everyone is forgetting here is that this isn't some civil suit or criminal trial.

YOU CAN'T CORRUPT THE JURY BY GIVING THEM MORE INFORMATION.

You can use a reasonable mind, look at what has happened in Volusia and know that they fixed at least some of the precincts. It doesn't take a computer scientist to know that.

By the way, when someone brings a charge against the government, they are guilty until proven innocent. THAT IS THE BIG DIFFERENCE HERE. THEY ARE NOT A SINGLE PERSON OR CORPORATION WITH THOSE KINDS OF RIGHTS. THEY MUST ANSWER TO US.

If the election was stolen this one time, boo hoo, I will cry to my wife and in a week or two I will just keep fighting for what I believe in...

BUT IF THIS ELECTION WAS CONTROLLED, THAT IS SOMETHING ENTIRELY DIFFERENT. I THINK IT WAS UNDER SOMEONE'S CONTROLL. THIS OLD LADY FROM VOLUSIA DIDN'T THINK THIS UP HERSELF. ALSO, IF THE VOTES IN VOLUSIA CHANGE TO KERRY VOTES, THAT WILL MAKE MOST OF THE OTHER COUNTIES LOOK LIKE THEY SWUNG EVEN WAY MORE TO BUSH THAN THEY SHOULD HAVE.

America cannot afford to have controlled elections. In governmental terms, we would be a dictatorship with revolving dictators and we might already be that. I am scared Keith.

Love ya Keith,
------

Get yourself off the hook Mitofsky. Prove to me that we can't read a list of numbers correctly. Also, prove to CNN, ABC, NBC, MSNBC and Fox that the numbers they saw should have been "read differently". What a crock of crap.

Put Up or Shut Up! Don't spit on me and tell me it's raining.

Simply release the data? Shouldn't that be his defense?

You can't have it both ways, Mitofsky.

Keith, THANK YOU! I was never an MSNBC viewer until you broke the media lockdown. You belong to a dying breed of journalists, as opposed to the stenographers who dominate reporting these days.

on the exit polls in the Ukraine???

And he needs to ask them why they won't release the data until 2005.

If we have "misinformation", then give us the official information.

from a guy who had a friend working for the exit pollers. I'll see if I can find it.

If these don't mean anyting, if no one, including Hughes, can read or believe them, why does Mitofsky have a job? What's the point of exit polls at all? Why bother? If not to predict the outcome, what were they intended to do? I'm hoping someone (Keith?) calls him out on this.

mitofsky@mindspring.com

Dear Sir,

Your argument makes no logical sense. If you believe the “leaked data” or “mis-information” was incorrect or incorrectly misinterpreted by EVERYONE, then please, clear your name and your reputation and release the data. Get yourself off the hook. Prove to me that we can't read a list of numbers correctly. Also, prove to CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, MSNBC, Fox, Salon.com and Karen Hughes that the numbers they saw should have been "read differently". Just don't spit on me and tell me it's raining.

If these don't mean anything, if no one, including Hughes, can read or believe them, why do you have a job? What's the point of exit polling at all? Why bother? If not to predict the outcome, what were these polls intended to do? As you are the last link in the chain of “mis-information”, please do the right thing and release your raw data. Do it for your children and their children and the future of the country.



Letter sent. It felt good.

This should be do-able by the GAO, or by parties filing relevant lawsuits. It should also be do-able by Congress.

You'd think he'd stand behind his polls as being correct. Zogby too.

oh-too-comfortable assertion that he felt at ease with both the election and the exit polls. His notion that (as far as he was concerned) there was no evidence of fraud does not say anything about the election, it only speaks to the fact that he has a business to run that allows him little time to speculate, and that his curiosity only pushes him within the range of his own numbers. He hasn't spent the time many of us have in making comparisons and doing research, although it would seem a good idea for him to do so. He doesn't claim (nor should he) to have an overwhelming interest in the minutiae that screams out so loudly, "FRAUD!"

It reads like a smoking gun to me.

A desperate attempt to give his side of the story "off the record"

The line where he mentions the west coast polls still being open is a total red herring.

We are talking about Ohio and Florida not California and Washington.

Kieth is a smart guy. He probable took one look at this letter and thought "GOTCHA".

Bloggers got what they deserved?

What did the get? Bogus info ?

Has any blogger you know lost credibility?

Has Drudge? (did he have any)

Has Salon?

Have WE? (did we have any)


Finally.....

"he’s not convinced there was an altered vote - accidental or otherwise - at least not on “a grand scale.” But Zogby says the “system is not geared for a close election like this” ...


What he's really saying is....

Black disenfranchisement? What does that mean?

...is that people like Freeman took his data from screenshots from the CNN web page!!! Misinformation from bloggers?!? No, data taken right from the websites of the companies that he was providing data to.

he wants to keep the networks contract for next time around and he's trying to spin the "accuracy" of his exit polls. I thought KO did a great job countering his arguments, as always. As good a broadcaster as Olbermann is, I think he's a better writer.

People like him are very crafty but they have no experience and no talent for covering up widespread manipulation of data in such a serious matter as this year's election. Mitofsky, I believe, is not up to the task of being Rovian when the pressure is on; thus, his arguments are easily shot down as soon as he utters them.

This election may well prove to be a classic case of what a tangled web they weave, when first they practice to deceive.

I came across this tid-bit on Mutofsky that this Discussion might find interesting.
______________________

http://deprogram.info/

25Feb04 - Alf Mendes / / Bilderberg Site Exclusive



(snip)
...........
Secrecy was of paramount importance to this project, and the first step taken to ensure this was the unpublicised setting up, in August 1964, of the News Election Service (NES), a consortium of the three major television networks: ABC, NBC and CBS (CNN was to join later), plus the Associated Press wire service, the New York Times, the Washington Post and other news-gathering organizations, their job being to compile computer-voting results at election time and feed them to the major media.
...........

In the case of counting actual ballots on national election night, public officials have abdicated responsibility of aggregation of election night vote totals to a private organization, News Election Service of New York (NES)".." This private organization performs without a contract: without supervision by public officials. It makes decisions concerning its duties according to its own criteria."..."The question and accountability of News Election Service has not arisen in the nation's press because the responsibility NES now has in counting the nation's votes was assumed gradually over a lengthy period without ever being evaluated as an item on the public agenda." <10>

In 1990, due to a merger, NES became Voter Research & Surveys (VRS), which, in turn, in 1993, became Voter News Service (VNS), which, because of its exposed vote-rigging activities, was disbanded in early 2003 - to be replaced by the National Election Pool (NEP), a consortium of ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox, and NBC, "to provide tabulated vote counts and exit poll surveys for the 2004 major presidential primaries and the November general election. These six major news organizations, in a joint decision, have appointed Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International as the sole provider of exit polls for the most important political races of 2004. The AP (group) will tally the vote". <11>..A case of many differing titles - but basically all the same consortium! - perhaps best exemplified by the facts that the president of Mitovsky International, Warren Mitofsky had been (a) executive director of the CBS News election and survey unit from 1967 to 1990; (b) started and directed Voter Research & Surveys from 1990 to 1993,"; and (c) had started the CBS News/New York Times Poll in 1975 and directed it for CBS for its first 15 years." (He had even "conducted the only exit polls for the Russian presidential elections in 1996 and 2000"; polled for the 1993 and 1999 Duma elections; and in 1994, "conducted the only exit poll and quick count for the Mexican presidential election"). <12>
(snip)
__________________

Exit polling can be used to validate an honsest election, raise doubts about a dishonest one. Importantly, exit polls can also be used to shape the PERCEPTION of an election. It is interesting that Mitofsky was asked to conduct the SOLE exit poll in several post-Soviet Russian elections. Why was he chosen for such a task? I wouldn't dare speculate.

The cnn.com exit polls were the late afternoon figures. Mitofsky is trying to benefit from the confusion that was created with different waves of early data coming from different exit pollsters. His own final exit polls, released to the general public via cnn.com and msnbc.com, showed Kerry winning in a landslide.

Dear Mr. *:
Your comment does not fit with what I said. What I said was that mid-day exit polls are not the final result of an exit poll. And that no one should expect exit polls in mid-day to be the same as the final results. Do you think the score at half time of a football game should be the same as the final score? Furthermore, the leaked numbers were not our best estimates as of the time they were leaked. The leakers had no idea what they were passing along and the bloggers had no idea what they were getting. EVERYONE DID NOT MISUNDERSTAND OUR NUMBERS. The proof of what I am saying is that neither Edison/Mitofsky nor any of the members made any mistakes in projecting winners AFTER the polls closed based on these same exit polls. Only the morons who leaked the erroneous numbers and the bloggers were misled. What is it that makes you think these same people would know how to interpret raw numbers?
warren mitofsky


After I correct him about my gender, what else would you like me to ask him based on this response??

http://www.buzzflash.com/analysis/04/11/ana04025.html

The CNN Exit Poll data on the CNN web site was later changed. Why?

There is nothing being hidden by us. We are preparing a report to the people we work for. Hopefully it will be finished shortly and it will be made public. I am not beholden to any political party. Nor do I believe the exit polls will quiet your fears about the system, whether or not we release the raw data. They are not useful for that purpose.
warren mitofsky

purpose of quieting fears about the system, one might ask when we will see his rebuttal of the US administration and Colin Powell's assertion that the exit polls from the Ukraine show that the election there was "illegitimate".

Is he implying that someone in his organization leaked the numbers? Who else would have access to the data, and if so, is he hiring "morons"?

Plus, aren't we talking about the 4pm exits, not the mid-day? The 4pm exits showed a kerry lead in the swing states.

At least he wrote back!

TennisGuy.

Mitofsky's very defensive tone stance, dripping sarcasm, where is all that called for. Protestith too much.

Yes ? "the leakers"? going to AP-CNN?

Dear Mr. Mitofsky,

First of all, I am a woman. It’s Ms. *.

I want to thank you for responding so swiftly to my concerns. My curiosity stems from the fact that prior to this election, the exit poll data from 4 p.m. is often referred to as an indicator of the projected outcome. Several news organizations were writing their “Kerry won” pieces, based on the polls. No, I would never assume that the score at halftime would be the score at the end of the game, but, sometimes it is.

If there is no conflict, if there is no misunderstanding, I request again that you please release the data from the mid-day and the 4 p.m. polls sooner rather than later. That’s all. If you won’t, or can’t release it, then please explain to the public why. There are people that are trying to interpret the results, statistically explain the “anomalies” and understand how people could have been so wrong in their assumptions. The increase in Bush voters in Florida alone has caused a good deal of confusion. As you and I know, if Pres. Bush had been up by the final margin in Florida all along, it never would have been a “swing state”.

I’m sure that Dr. Steven Freeman, and the people at UC Berkeley and CalTech/MIT would be more than pleased to receive this information as it is the missing piece to their statistical analysis.

My e-mail was intended as a plea to you to help us put all of this behind us. As you’ve seen from the last couple of days in the Ukraine, exit polls can cause an election to be deemed “illegitimate”: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6374820/. Please help us close this chapter.

Dear Mr. Mitofsky,

First of all, I am a woman. It’s Ms. *.

I want to thank you for responding so swiftly to my concerns. My curiosity stems from the statement that the exit poll data from 4 p.m., is often referred to as an indicator of the projected outcome. Several news organizations were writing their “Kerry won” pieces, based on the polls. No, I would never assume that the score at half-time would be the score at the end of the game, but, sometimes it is.

If there is no conflict, if there is no misunderstanding, I request again that you please release the data from the mid-day and the 4 p.m. polls sooner rather than later. That’s all. If you won’t, or can’t release it, then please explain why. There are people that are trying to interpret the results, statistically explain the “anomalies” and trying to understand how people could have been so wrong in their assumptions. The increase in Bush voters in Florida alone has caused a good deal of confusion. As you and I know, if Pres. Bush had been up by the final margin in Florida all along, it never would have been a “swing state”.

I’m sure that Dr. Steven Freeman, and the people at UC Berkeley and CalTech/MIT would be more than pleased to receive this information as it is the missing piece to their statistical analysis. Please help us close this chapter.

My e-mail was intended as a plea to you to help us put all of this behind us. As you’ve seen from the last couple of days in the Ukraine, exit polls can cause an election to be deemed “illegitimate” and spark mass demonstrations in the streets: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6374820/.

I am not sure whether you are referring to me, personally, as a moron, or those you work with, but I don’t think that we need that kind of name-calling here. I am merely a concerned citizen, trying to assure myself and others that we do indeed have free and fair elections. I don’t think that that is frivolous or “moronic”, do you?

is guilt in my opinion. Plus making up excuses to not release the data is more guilt.

of his analogy of a mid-game football score and election results!

This guy lacks very basic logic and reasoning skills. Huge glaring chink in his armour, please call him on it, those of you who are engaged in a dialogue with him.

In no way can you make that comparison to a properly run statistical poll. The raw statistics of a 2pm exit poll should not be that much different from that of the 4pm or 6pm, etc. if the pollsters are doing proper sampling (and it doesn't sound like he's claiming improper sampling to me).

And why, oh why, are the exit polls so wrong for some states (especially the all important FL, OH & PA) and spot on for other states? Is there sampling from state to state that inconsistent? If it is, they are incompetent.

Occam's razor to this situation to see the truth.

The 4pm and 6-7pm exit poll data was weighted (unlike the noon and 2pm data). I would simply change the 4pm reference to the "6pm-7pm weighted" exit polls. Otherwise, great job!

apparently he's on an e-mail responding roll, here.

Who's he calling a moron anyway?

I bet he's already seen this thread or someone on his staff has! :hi:

"Who's he calling a moron anyway?"

It's a reflection on his own organization, which I believe at this point we can all agree with...

Slate's MSN exit polls as of 7:30 ET 11/2/2004:

http://www.slate.com/id/2109053/

51% Kerry to Bush 48%

Here's a quote that proves those WERE the poll numbers

“Did anyone really think that 51% in an exit poll two hours before voting was finished in the western states gave Kerry a lock on the presidency?”


Why yes, Mr. Mitofsky I would suspect a close race-and not the hands down winner to be the one behind. I guess that's just logic.

Especially when the voting in the "Western states" OR/WA/CA all went for Kerry.

I must be MAD.

But I don't think that should stop him from releasing the data and putting all of this to rest. :)

Shouldn't he do it for his own peace and to stop all of the e-mails and questions if no other reason?

Can't figure anything out anymore. I'm all turned around. Up is Down, Black is White.

War is Peace
Freedom is Slavery
Ignorance is Strength
George Orwell - 1984

and it would prove what we've been saying all along????

Of a parallel discussion going on over at the commonground forum

http://www.commongroundcommonsense.org/index.php?showtopic=6630