Dr. Freeman's updated paper ROCKS.

There was some solid criticism of his first paper coming out from the myster pollster, and Freeman covered most it. The exception being the alledged need of Republicans to run and hide from exit poll takers.

(Of course, they didn't mind talking to tracking poll takers in the months leading up to the election. We know that because Gallup among others kept oversampling them.)

Some of that dialogue can be found here:

http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/11/the_freeman_pap_1.html

The final tally? Giving our critics every luxury and benefit of the doubt?

662,000 to 1. In just the three major battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania!!

I like the little molotov cocktail Freeman throws on page 7, where he looks at how the exit polls compared to actual results in German elections. This is in response to a criticism of his first paper where he just took the word of Thom Hartmann from commondreams dot org.

Okay, Kerry. Hillary. Jesse. We've shown you ours now you show us yours.

Get off your lazy asses and fight!

Time, Dr. Freeman? Is it really that time again?

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

im disappointed nobody got my Half Life 2 reference...

Welcome to DU! I'm fairly new myself. :hi:

....to the revised manuscript?

Peace.

...here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/24/115048/86

Thank you and Happy Thanksgiving.

I have to say that I just don't understand this notion that the exit polls were skewed because people didn't want to admit they voted for Bush. Perhaps somebody can explain it to me...

When you look at the exit polls on the CNN site http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html the percentage of dems and repubs are equal (37% each). Furthermore, the numbers of dems who admitted voting for * (shame on them) are actually higher than the numbers of repubs voting for Kerry. That and when you look at the offsetting stats for why people voted the way they did (Moral Values: 80% *, 18% Kerry and Economy: 18% *, 80% Kerry) suggests that people were honest about who they voted for (i.e. it doesn't seem like * voters said they voted for Kerry when they didn't, but still listed "moral values" as the most important issue).

Basically we need to see some post-election polls to see if these fabled "embarrassed * voters" come clean and 'fes up. I have my doubts though 'cus it would have taken a lot of shy * voters to overcome the equal percentages of dems and repubs sampled and the higher numbers of dems voting for *.

only speculation that they are. And the speculation is flimsy. Polls by there nature and design

On the other hand we have the exit polls, the massive suppresion and the anomolies in Ohio and Florida as well as in numerous other states and we are supposed to believe there is no story?

I don't think so.

By themselves they demolish the flimsy excuses offered by the networks. But in their defense, the results of previous exit polls v. actual results throughout the 90's showed Dems were overcounted 38% of the time and undercounted only 20%. This may indicate the Dems have really been more willing than Republicans to talk to people taking exit polls.

Or...

We may be looking at evidence the Repugs have been tampering with elections for quite a while. That makes sense when you realize that stealing this election obviously took a lot of planning and practice. And if these people are anything its organized and well prepared. Furthermore, Pat Robertson is pretty sure Poppy Bush stole North Carolina from him in the 1988 primaries, so the timeline fits that scenario.

....(e.g. Iraq, dollar, 'privatize social security' ....) in the past 22 days, I think we'd have trouble getting quite a few of those who did vote for Bush to admit it ;-)

to view the new paper do you have alink?

www.appliedresearch.us/sf

I just got back to this posting and was... like... yikes!!

This paper's just wonderful, especially in light of current events in the Ukraine. Makes you realize there really are no accidents in this world. Hurricanes slam into Republican counties in Florida. The Columbia breaks up over Texas. Boston wins the whole shebang after coming back three-oh in the fight with the Yankees. Israel -- the greatest threat ever to American security and the prime cause of our invasion of Iraq -- gets hit by a locust swarm...

We're keeping good company, friends!

Where is Part II of Dr. Freeman's paper? Has he issued it yet, if so where can I see it?

http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/

Special thanks to pauldp for catching that.

....into the dKos thread because Freeman's analysis forces one to think of 'how did it happen.'

For many of us, 'unsupervised' access to 'central tabulating systems' would be the most efficient way to adjust outcomes not predicted by 'exit polls' --that is as polite a way of saying it as I'm capable of writing at this point. ;-)

Link is:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/24/115048/86

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Besides proving fraud -- we need to know HOW the fraud was done and WHO was involved.

I've read reports in the Voting forums that tech-reps from the voting machine companies were in and around the county headquarters where the votes were being tabulated. NOW how were these tech-reps identified -- and were they verified to be who they claimed to be?

There are many issues regarding vote security (and counting/tabulation) that must be cleared up before another election can beheld in any of the suspect districts.

At this point I am wondering if all vote counting centers are vulnerable to infiltration by really bad people. I am wondering if all the elections are tainted by the obvious cases of vote frauds (more votes than registered voters comes to mind).

get us in trouble and the government will use the Patriot Act to shut us down.

Just kidding.

but did he chand=ge his stats of 250 million to 1 for florida ,ohio and pennsylvania?

It is the nature of exit polls, as it turns out, to have a greater margin of error than other polls. He factored that in and other things as well. We're still on easy street, though, as you can see.

i thought i saw someone post less than a million to one now, would that still be like winning the lottery?

"If anybody has *Virginia*, that's all I need to complete the data set! If you viewed the Virginia exit poll on election night, please let me know. You may still have it in your computer memory!

I also need sample size for NY, NJ, or NC.

Thanks."

American Newsreel
November 02, 2004
New exit poll numbers

Kerry exit poll leads:
FL +4
IA +2
OH +5
MI +4
MN +5
PA +16
WI +5

Bush leads:
CO +1
NC +5
NV +1
VA +1

NM remains tied at 49 all.

Posted by dougthompson at November 2, 2004 05:42 PM
http://www.americannewsreel.com/archives/2004/11/new_exit_poll_n.html

... I'm a foreigner so I'm sorry if I missed something obvious.

not just the difference between them, but thanks.

it is on his web site I just copied it. In case anyone here could help

Actually on a closer look they all look wrong...

Compare these numbers to the ones in the Freeman's report. WI's exit poll was spot on...

:toast:
Would you care to say where you are?
:D
(I presume you know today is a big holiday here and many DUers are busy stuffing themselves with uh, stuffing and turkey...so it isn't very
active just now) ;-)