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Think I found a minor pattern in California... thoughts?

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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 10:38 AM
Original message
Think I found a minor pattern in California... thoughts?
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 11:20 AM by geo
Hi all,

Notice there isn't a single Diebold Accuvote Touchscreen/DRE in this batch? And of the two touchscreens that made it into this list (Sequoia AVC Edge) they are in counties that I marked with a star? Notice the other two stars are on counties with Diebold equipment? Wonder where George is going with this?

Alpine - Datavote (Punchcard)
Butte - Mark-A-Vote (Optiscan)
Contra Costa - Mark-A-Vote (Optiscan)
Glenn - Datavote (Punchcard)
Humbolt - AccuVote-OS (Optiscan)
Inyo - Datavote (Punchcard)
Marin - AccuVote-OS (Optiscan)
Mendocino - Accuvote-OS (Optiscan)
Modoc* - Accuvote-OS (Optiscan)
Mono - Optech Eagle (Optiscan)
Napa* - AVC Edge (Touchscreen/DRE)
Nevada - Model 100/550/650 (Optiscan)
Plumas* - Accuvote-OS (Optiscan)
San Francisco - Optech Eagle (Optiscan)
San Mateo - Optech Eagle (Optiscan)
Santa Barbara - Accuvote-OS (Optiscan)
Santa Clara* - AVC Edge (Touchscreen/DRE)
Santa Cruz - Mark-A-Vote (Optiscan)
Siskiyou - Accuvote-OS (Optiscan)
Sonoma - Mark-A-Vote (Optiscan)

This is a list of CA counties that did not show odd gains for Bush. The stars showed gains that might be easily explained away but were still questionable. This is 20 of the 58 counties. There were NINE diebold Accuvote Touchscreen DREs and NONE of them were used in my "safe" list of counties.

Whatcha all think? Pattern?? ;)

Warmly,

George

(p.s. edited because original post was asking for machine info for each of the counties, but that was answered quickly. Thanks!)
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GoBlue Donating Member (930 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 10:40 AM
Response to Original message
1. here ya go
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 10:46 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. you're awesome! Thanks! :)
:) -G
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:03 AM
Response to Original message
3. edited info into main post....
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 11:08 AM by geo
no post to see here. please move along down-thread. :) -G
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NVMojo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:10 AM
Response to Original message
4. Interesting!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x91982

there is a link here near the bottom for an article that ran just before the election that talked about Sequoia code being posted for viewing online. Wonder if it was in one of these two counties?
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:25 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. On Sequoia... the AVC Edge Touchscreen..
seems to be used in some of the oddest looking counties (i.e. Riverside). :)

I just went back through the list, there are SIX Sequoia counties in California, only two of them barely fit into what I call my "safe" list.

Thanks for the link! I'm glad you brought it up! Mr. Madsen himself mentioned Riverside, and they did have that odd departure from the election official who was alledgedly not reporting gifts from Sequoia. :) This could get good. -G

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Karenca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:21 AM
Response to Original message
5. Very good......Who should this be sent to?
This is important.Thankyou
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:27 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. I haven't mailed BBV yet... but likely they are still swamped...
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 11:28 AM by geo
I think we might have to keep kicking it around DU for the time being. I'm hoping we find some patterns. Mr. Madsen's story has me digging here in Cali for some answers. Please see the thread "Project California" for the latest:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x91254

And if you are in CA, please let me know!! :) :)

Warmly,

George
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LiveInHope Donating Member (29 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:32 AM
Response to Reply #7
8. Thank you for your work, George
I have a sneaking suspicion **bush was able to majorly pad his popular vote in Calofornia.
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. I read every 2004 county result and compared it to
2000 results, and when you factor that most greens would never vote Bush, and that the GOP doesn't spend much recruiting new voters here you have some fairly funky numbers. Bush seems to have gained much more than it seems he should have. And some counties, when you read the reports that people left of what went wrong you start to get a real clue.

I think it would have gone largely unnoticed if Mr. Madsen's article didn't point at it. :) It does seem padded, and I am enjoying the hunt. Luckily I have a lot of fellow DUrs in CA who can help coordinate this project. :) :) They can't hide from us in California without being totally obvious thanks to our wonderful sunshine laws. Let's hope we get a nice hot lead soon!

Warmly,

George
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Suggest you file it as a report to...
...CA SoS, CA AG, Common Cause, ACLU, AFL-CIO, and:

http://www.votersunite.org/electionproblems.asp?offset=0&catid=&showall=&sort

and,

http://www.verifiedvoting.org/index.php

Excellent investigative effort. Thank you.

"Halt, Audit, & Prove My Vote Counts, Now"
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:12 PM
Response to Reply #10
18. I feel I still need to sift through the data a little more...
before I send to the heavywieghts, but I do think the pattern is odd. :) -G
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understandinglife Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #18
23. It is fine to continue your analysis...
....but, filing a preliminary result gets it on the record, in numerous places and that is also important.

Thank you.

"Halt, Audit & Prove My Vote Counts, Now"
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. point taken... I'll gather together what I have and just hedge
it a bit, so they'll have an idea it's coming in more thoroughly sooner than later. Good idea! :) -G
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libertypirate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
11. Has california posted precinct numbers?
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Los Angeles County has. Probably others, too.
You can find LA Co. here if you feel like wading through their 4000+ precincts:

http://regrec.co.la.ca.us/svc/posttally0024/bigframe.htm
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. on a county by county basis, they seem to be there...
I have yet to dive to that level of micro, but I will soon. :) -G
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:11 PM
Response to Reply #14
17. Did you find Riverside Co. precinct results?
I still haven't been able to locate them....
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:41 PM
Response to Reply #17
30. No and I'm glad you brought them up...
I went to their website and went trolling for the precinct data and saw where they are trying to charge people for access to voter records. The fees are WAY more than the cost of the materials used to provide this information, which is in violation if the CPRA, FOIA, the California State Constitution (thanks to Prop 59), and likely not something voters would be very happy to know ("County Turns Profit On YOUR Voter Information" - news at 6.)

I'll try to call the number listed on their homepage and ask if it is up on their site, or how else it may be viewed. I'll repost the info later, or if you get to it first, please do so as well. :)

I have a feeling us DUrs will bring a well deserved culutre shock to Riverside if and when the occasion arrises. :) -G
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libertypirate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #13
34. No
That's why I have been writing a tool to do it for me...

Downloaded NM last night 2400 webpages in about 20 min I will convert the tables to a csv, hopefully tonight.

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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. Nice! Willing to make that tool available to DU'ers? n/t
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libertypirate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. Web site / System guru's only
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 02:29 PM by libertypirate
It has to be custom writen to deal with every difference presented at each website. It's a bit of a pain in the ass to do. If you want the code it's yours.

Must be at least familiar with the "mshtml.HTMLDocumentClass" class object.

Let me know...

BTW anyone looking for precinct data from anythese counties

FL - Bay, Clay, Monroe, Manatee, Collier

I recieved them a couple of weeks ago
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #38
39. You might make this its own thread topic in this forum.
Both for the custom tool and the precinct data. Sounds like you're doing good work.
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libertypirate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #39
40. I would rather focus on getting the info
Um possibly I could, but I want to finish NM first...

And Grab LA tonight
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
12. Merced Co. - some strangeness....
I've been following the results on the SoS page as they've come in.

http://vote2004.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/59.htm

Merced Co. was sticking out because it was showing that only 77% of people who cast a ballot cast a vote for President. I figured the absentees hadn't been counted. Today I looked. Sure enough, some ballots had been added, but only enough to bring the percentage up to 84%. Meaning 16% undervoted or decided not to vote for President. Then I went to another page on the SoS website:

http://vote2004.ss.ca.gov/Returns/status.htm

I found the number of ballots CAST had been reduced by almost 10K from 68,746 to 58,752. No screen grab on the original, of course.....

Merced uses the ES&S iVotronic machine, for whatever it's worth.
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. very funky.... Merced is still on my radar...
did the numbers shrink on the SoS site? Do you know the approximate date/time window within which this happened? -G
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #15
19. Yes, the numbers shrank on the SoS website by almost 10K.
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 12:17 PM by mountebank
On the page showing County Status the numbers of Ballots Cast for Merced County went down by almost 10K. This happened in the last 5-7 days. The link to this page is in my first post.

Also, it's impossible I made an error b/c I was cutting and pasting from the SoS website into a spreadsheet and checked it on about 5 different days.

EDIT: to add info.

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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:19 PM
Response to Reply #19
24. question: did you leave the old data in the file?
And is the most recent save date more than 5-7 days ago? :) -G
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:25 PM
Response to Reply #24
27. How do I check most recent save date?
I only see most recent modification date and that, of course, is today....
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 03:09 PM
Response to Reply #24
41. Got it. Between 11/17 and 11/29 the numbers changed.
I just PM'ed you with the info.
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Dec-01-04 12:02 AM
Response to Reply #41
45. cool :)
Thanks! :) -G
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
16. Link to "Project California" thread....
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ccarter84 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:15 PM
Response to Original message
20. CA county info
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 12:16 PM by ccarter84
I posted this in another thread, but who finds it interesting
that none of these counties listed below are on this list?


		2000	2004	change	%change	2000	2004	change	%change
County		Gore	Kerry			W Shrub	W Shrub		
fresno		95,059	95,925	866	0.91%	117,342	134,532	17,190	14.65%
riverside	202,576	228,806	26,230	12.95%	231,955	322,473	90,518	39.02%
sanbernardino	214,749	222,143	7,394	3.44%	221,757	283,902	62,145	28.02%
stanislaus	56,448	58,829	2,381	4.22%	67,188	85,407	18,219	27.12%
tulare		33,006	32,494	-512	-1.55%	54,070	65,399	11,329	20.95%

data from:
http://vote2004.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/59.htm
http://vote2000.ss.ca.gov/Returns/pres/59.htm

and Kern County 
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=201x3530


-CC

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?
az=view_all&address=203x88041#90526
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. Hi ccarter!
Actually, it was your post that got me thinking I should check it out right away. :) -G
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ccarter84 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. tight, thank Geo :)
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 12:20 PM by ccarter84
sorry bout the doublepost,

good idea for this thread, I wouldn't have thought of it...more of a numbers person
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mountebank Donating Member (755 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:23 PM
Response to Reply #20
26. FYI: Type of voting for those counties.
Fresno - optical scan (precinct level)
Riverside - DRE Sequoia AVC-Edge
San Bernadino - DRE Sequoia AVC-Edge
Stanislaus - optical scan (precinct level)
Tulare - optical scan (precinct level)
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ccarter84 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #26
28. Oh...k then uh next idea anyone?
shrug
thanks for the quick response mountebank :)
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:44 PM
Response to Reply #28
31. my suggestion is to check in with the "Project California" thread and...
begin looking at your county, unless you live in one of the counties we are calling "safe" for the moment. I'm still narrowing down some data before I get us kicked up into high gear here. :) -G
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:40 PM
Response to Original message
29. Sonoma county - I think there were Diebolds?
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 12:53 PM by dotcosm
Just prior to the election, I found a website that had an interactive function where you put in your address and zipcode and it pulled up the address of your polling place and listed which type of ballots/machines were used.

I looked up my local polling place (in Sonoma county) and was sure it said Diebold touchscreen, because I recall thinking "I'm SO glad I got an absentee ballot this year!"

So, I cannot verify that they actually used the Diebold machines within Sonoma county, contrary to what your original post says, but if anyone knows the website I'm referring to where polling places were searchable, please let me know and I'll recheck (nope, didn't think to bookmark it! doh!)

Edit -- OK, just found some sites with that info, and I guess when I saw the name Diebold, I assumed e-voting, but now I see they actually were Diebold Optical Scanners that were used. Carry on...
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:45 PM
Response to Reply #29
32. Here is a list of the equipment by county not listed above...
Alameda - Accuvote-TS (Touchscreen/DRE)
Amador - Optech Eagle (Optiscan)
Calavaras - Datavote (Punchcards)
Colusa - Model 100/550/650 (Optiscan)
Del Norte - Datavote (Punchcards)
El Dorado - Datavote (Punchcards)
Fresno - Accuvote-OS (Optiscan)
Imperial County - Datavote (punchcard)
Kern - Accuvote-OS (optiscan)
Kings - Optech Eagle (Optiscan)
Lake - Mark-A-Vote (Optiscan)
Lassen - Accuvote-OS (optiscan)
Los Angeles - InkaVote (optiscan)
Madera - Mark-A-Vote (Optiscan)
Mariposa - Optech Eagle (Optiscan)
Merced - iVotronic (Touchscreen/DRE)
Modoc? - Accuvote-os (optiscan)
Monterey - Optech Eagle (optiscan)
Orange - eslate (DRE)
Placer - Accuvote-os (optiscan)
Plumas? - accuvote-ts (touchscreen/DRE)
Riverside - AVC Edge (Touchscreen/DRE)
Sacramento - Model 100/550/650 (Optiscan)
San Benito - Datavote (Punchcards)
San Bernardino - AVC Edge (Touchscreen/DRE)
San Diego - Accuvote-OS (Optiscan)
San Joaquin - Accuvote-os (optiscan)
San Luis Obispo - accuvote-os (optiscan)
Santa Clara? - AVC Edge (Touchscreen/DRE)
Shasta - AVC Edge (Touchscreen/DRE)
Sierra* - Datavote (punchcards)
Solano - Model 100/550/650 (optiscan)
Stanislaus - Model 100/550/650 (optiscan)
Sutter - Mark-A-Vote (optiscan)
Tehama - AVC Edge (touchscreen/DRE)
Trinity - Accuvote-os (optiscan)
Tulare - accuvote-os (optiscan)
Tuolumne - model 100/550/650 (optiscan)
Ventura - Datavote (punchcards)
Yolo - Datavote (punchcards)
Yuba - Datavote (punchcards)
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #29
33. if you find out different, please let me know! :)
The Secretary of State site is where I pulled the info. If Diebold equipment was used in Sonoma, please let me know. :) Thanks! - G
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Duer 157099 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. Well, looks like it was the Diebold Optical Scanners, anyway
Edited on Tue Nov-30-04 01:42 PM by dotcosm
at least it wasn't the e-voting machines! Just edited my post above, sorry... will check in with other thread re: what to do locally, I'm in! :-)

Edit: although, frankly, I don't trust *any* of the Diebold machines, regardless of type. I think the optical scanners are just as vulnerable.
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #35
36. cool. :)
:) -G
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geo Donating Member (879 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
42. kick
kick
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dzika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 07:28 PM
Response to Original message
43. Photos from Demonstration in CA
Take a look at the photos from a demonstration in California

http://www.indybay.org/news/2004/11/1707625.php


-snip-
"The demonstration, organized by the Wellstone Democratic Club of Silicon Valley, and by The Dean Democratic Club of Silicon Valley, was to protest the Media's near complete silence concerning voting irregularities in the 2004 presidential election."
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Lisabtrucking Donating Member (807 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Nov-30-04 07:29 PM
Response to Original message
44. If you want to know what we are fighting for check this out
This link opens a video file "Bush won. Get over it." Touching video tribute to the soliders killed
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ccarter84 Donating Member (412 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Dec-02-04 01:26 PM
Response to Original message
46. kick
:kick:
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