HELP: Was Connally Vote in Ohio Kosher ?

I understand that the initial data was presented in a confusing way, incorrectly implying Connally got more votes than Kerry statewide in Ohio.

I'm curious how the data would look if we just looked at percentages: e.g., taking the example below, Connally got 47% of the vote in Butler county, while Kerry got 34%. Can this percentage spread be explained in benign terms if we look at it from a statewide basis ?

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By suspicious, Jackson is referring to the latest analysis of the Nov. 2 vote by a coalition of Ohio voting rights activists. In analyzing the still-unofficial results, the totals reveal that C. Ellen Connally, an African-American Democratic candidate from Cleveland for Ohio Chief Justice, received more than 257,000 votes than Kerry.

(Editor's note: Rev. Jackson was referring to Connally's margin of votes as a benchmark, not actual more votes. Jackson was referring to margin calculations instead of actual votes. In Butler County, Connally the Democrat received 59,532 running against Republican Chief Justice Moyer who received 66,625 votes. Connally received 5347 more votes than Kerry. To calculate the margin referred to in this article, take the difference between the total votes Connally and Moyer received (X) then take the difference between the total votes Kerry and Bush received (Y). Subtract X from Y and you have the margin. For example, in Butler County, the difference between Connally and Moyers's votes was 7093. Bush received 106,735 votes and Kerry received 54,185 votes, with a difference of 52,550. Subtracting 7093 from 52,550 equals 45,457. See below for details.*)

The pattern for this election appears to be about the same it was in 2000 -- at least WRT Bulter (see both 2000 and 2004 below).

Until I hear a reason that the margin for the 2004 Cheif Justice race should be much larger than 2000, OR evidence that vote totals were hacked in 2000, I just don't see this as significant.

2000 Butler County

President
Bush,83,680 - 63.42%
Gore 44,661 - 33.85%
128,341 votes cast in county for President.

Supreme Court Justice Term commencing Jan. 1, 2001
Deborah Cook 60,936 - 55.22%
Tim Black 49,417 - 44.78%
110,353 votes cast (85% of presidential total)

Supreme Court Justice Term commencing Jan. 1, 2001
Terrence O'Donnell 58,897 - 51.93%
Alice Robie Resnick 54,517 - 48.07%
110,353 votes cast (88% of votes cast in presidential)

2004 Butler County

President
Kerry 54,185 - 34%
Bush 106,735 - 66%
160,920 votes cast in county for President. Bush won county by 52,550

Chief Justice
Democract Connally 59,532 - 47%
Republican Moyer 66,625 - 53%
126,157 votes cast in county (78% of votes cast in presidential) for Cheif Justice. Moyer won by 7,093

In raw votes, Connally got 5347 more votes than Kerry.

Why is Connally's MARGIN of votes compared to Kerry's margin of votes significant? The race she was in was closer (on the face of it). Is this impossible? What would be an otherwise innocent explanation for this, is what I'm not getting, and why is it probably not true?

I understand how weird it would be if she HAD garnered more votes overall than Kerry; I would understand comparing vote percentages; but I don't understand why they are subtracting her vote differential from Kerry's vote differential to get this "margin". Is that a standard thing in statistics? Can somebody explain it better?


Oh, and while I was typing my post--trying to articulate what my question even is--I saw patk's post, about the pattern being the same for 2000. I take anything about the 2000 election with a grain of salt, since it was a tainted election too. But the question in my mind remains. Pat is comparing straight percentages, which is what I would expect, and the results can be explained by good old-fashioned ticket-splitting.

I just can't wrap my brain around that "margin". Can someone help?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=87016&mesg_id=91229

Based on your spreadsheet, Bush + Kerry = 5,455,811.
Connally + Moyer = 4,327,270

I sorted the data by difference (JK - W) and added columns to show the difference in terms of % for both race sets.

For the top 15 in Kerry's favor, 29% of the people didn't bother to vote for the Supreme Court justice.

For the top 15 in Bush's favor, 25% of the people didn't vote for the SC candidates.

Erie was interesting. They had the lowest % difference between total votes cast for both candidate sets....14%. Kerry had a 12% lead over Bush...but Moyer had a 100% lead over Connelly. Apparently Republicans preferred Kerry, there.

But in Kerry's largest district, Cuyoga...32% didn't vote for SC court race? And in Kerry's 2nd largest precinct, Franklin, 36% didn't vote for SC. Either the Democrats don't care about their SC pick or Bush got lot's more Cyber votes..........

On the ballots the OH supreme court race was non-partisan. Most people had no idea if Connally or her opponent was the Dem or Repug. In Butler County the precincts where Bush won big is where Connally had way more votes than Kerry (many >200). The opposite is true too, where Kerry won big he had way more votes Connally (many >200).

Why do you think that Connally got about only 59% of the vote (7% less than Kerry) in Cuyahoga, where she is from?

This one is pretty easy to explain. But there were other serious problems.

Welcome to DU!! :toast: