Kerry passed Bush on provisionals in Ohio

http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com/

Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Summary of provisional ballots count - UPDATED 11/30/04
Note: 75 of 88 counties have reported.

Current % of provisionals being counted: 78%

Current "additional" vote count:
Bush +46,847
Kerry +52,126
Please note, some of the largest counties have still not reported.

hmm. just reminds me of how skewed the results were.

Still too many votes for Bush to change anything, but with all the crap the republicans pulled, there is little doubt that Kerry did win Ohio.

Cuyahoga Co:

"So far, about two-thirds of those votes have been deemed legitimate, but those numbers could change." (Plain Dealer)


"Cuyahoga County, where Cleveland is located, has processed 40 percent, or 9,719 votes, of its 24,788 provisional ballots and rejected a third, according to a board tally. Most are being rejected because the voters were not registered." (AP)


The Plain Dealer reported 11/23 that approximately 1/3 of the provisional ballots are being rejected.


According to elections officials, 16,058 out of 25,309 provisional ballots were accepted. The results are Bush +5,982, Kerry + 15,224. Note, the number of provisionals received is slightly higher than that used by the Plain Dealer (25,309 versus 25,302).

Butler Co:

On 11/16/04, Butler County started its review of 6,431 provisional ballots and 33 "overseas" absentee ballots. (Journal-News, 11/17/04)

According to elections officials, 4,760 provisional ballots were okayed out of 6,434 cast. The results are Bush +3,131, Kerry +2,049


Belmont County had an alarmingly high rejection rate - 42% - by far, the highest of all of the reported counties and nearly twice the average of other counties. The next closest county is apparently Lorain County with a rejection rate of 32%. The average of reported counties is a 22% rejection rate.

This ultra-high rejection rate deserves more investigation if for no other reason than it being such an an exception to the norm.

:thumbsup:

What exactly does this mean?Is this the re-counted numbers?

before being counted - for example, if a person's name wasn't on the voter list, or their address couldn't be verified or some such thing. When you go to vote they HAVE to give you the benefit of the doubt and let you vote on a special ballot, and then they check it later before counting it. So this is part of the original Ohio vote tally.

Bush had 2,796,147
Kerry had 2,659,664

B + 46,847
K + 52,126

now
B has 2,842,994
K has 2,711,790
Difference of 131,204

How many provisional ballots are their left? If you #s represent about 80% then there are only about 20,000 (roughly) ballots left.

The one county with roughly 3,000 extra votes for Bush?

But the point remains -- the narrowing of the gap due to provisionals will be far too little for the spoiled ballots on their own to make a difference.

Either massive irregularities will have to be uncovered during the recount or the equal protection lawsuit will have to succeed for any hope of changing the outcome at this point.

votes in Franklin county due to a double count, 22000 provisionals yet to count statewide

Hamilton Co:

"Hamilton County has sorted through almost 13,000 of its <13,976> provisional ballots, Williams said. He hasn't totaled those rejected but said he expects 20 percent to 30 percent to ultimately be found invalid.

The elections staff expects to finish checking provisional ballots by Friday. Starting Monday, bipartisan teams will inspect each ballot for "pregnant'' and "hanging chads'' as well as torn ballots and other irregularities. Tuesday evening or Wednesday, the regular and provisional ballots will be fed through the punch-card-counting machine for the official count. The elections board will meet after Thanksgiving weekend to officially certify the ballot." (Enquirer, 11/17/04)


Based on stories in the Enquirer and Post, Hamilton County unofficially rejected about 3,000 of its 13,976 provisional ballots. The results are reportedly to be Bush +6,765, Kerry +8,543

Lorain Co:

The Elyria Chronicle Telegram on 11/23 reported that, "About 1,264 of the 4,000 provisional and absentee ballots from the Nov. 2 election were rejected by the Lorain County Board of Elections on Monday. " Actually, the SOS website reports that Lorain County had 4,134 provisional ballots. That means the county had a fairly high rejection rate - 68%.

The reasons for rejecting the provisionals suggest further investigation should be conducted. For example, the story reports:

Of the 1,264 ballots rejected, 702 provisional ballots were thrown out for improper registration. That number also included those voters who had not cast a ballot since the 1992 presidential election.

The board also accepted a number of questionable absentee ballots, such as those in which voters made simple errors. Two absentee voters were provided military envelopes in error, for instance, while another voter made his selections on the voting booklet rather than the ballot.

Jacobcik said that a Democrat-Republican team would evaluate cases in which the board thought voter intent could be determined.

Other significant provisional and absentee ballots that the board rejected included:
• 160 voted in the wrong precinct
• 14 did not provide a new address
• 190 did not provide an old address
• 11 had cards returned by the post office
• 93 failed to sign ID envelopes
• 8 did not return ID cards
• 16 returned ballot cards without stubs
Clearly, a major portion of the referenced "702" is a little mysterious. Although it is stated that some of these are ballots cast by "inactive voters", that would be an extraordinarily high percentage. In nearly all other counties, the largest percentage of rejected provisionals is due to ballots cast in the wrong precinct. Here, however, these amount to 160 and are apparently not part of the 702. Further, some of the reasons for rejection seem flimsy and other counties, e.g., Madison, have gone to special lengths to county every possible provisional ballot. If nothing else, this again raises the issue of the lack of specific, uniform and enforceable guidelines for the county BOEs to use to evaluate the provisionals.

Summit Co:

"Director Bryan Williams said his staff has found that about 10 percent of the 5,932 provisional ballots in the county are invalid." (Plain Dealer)


"'It's still safe to say 90 percent or more of the provisionals cast will qualify for counting. Ten percent or less, based on what we're seeing, will be disqualified for one reason or another,' he said" (Beacon Journal)


"About 1,200 provisional ballots were rejected Tuesday by the Summit County Board of Elections, where much of a morning meeting was devoted to a separate debate about dimples and piercings." (Plain Dealer, 11/17/04)


Officials from the Summit County Board of Elections say it will be at least another day before they have a final tally of how many provisional ballots cast in the Nov. 2 election can be verified . . . Initial estimates are that about 20 percent -- roughly 1,200 votes -- won't be verified, mainly because they were cast by people who were not registered to vote. (Beacon Journal, 11/18/04)

less than 50% were deemed valid

Final projection of Provisional votes:

Valid votes so far = 98973
Additional valid votes to be counted = 27,915
(Assuming rejection rate same as for the first 78% so far counted)

Assuming Kerry gets 75% of remaining votes,

Final Bush votes = 2,849,973 + 6979 = 2,856, 952
Final Kerry votes = 2,732,726 + 20,936 = 2,753,662

Final projected difference = 103,290 votes