Obama's Amazing Improvement Among Traditional White Catholics

Obama's Amazing Improvement Among Traditional White Catholics


Vice President Joe Biden flanked by Budget Director Peter Orszag, left, and Accountability Board Chair Earl Devaney, speaks during the first Recovery Plan Implementation meeting Wednesday.

We saw another historic first in the White House Wednesday, but this one involved the vice president, not the president. Joe Biden led a White House meeting with a smudge of ash on his forehead, part of his observance of Ash Wednesday. Of course, we had another Catholic in the White House, but John F. Kennedy was not, as far as I can ascertain, photographed at a public event with the sacred smudge.
It's a milestone of religious pluralism and also reminds us of the importance of the Catholic vote. Obama-Biden won in part because they improved dramatically among Catholics. Some may have assumed that meant liberal Catholics flocked to the ticket (and they did) but a new study reveals something stunning: traditional white Catholics went for Obama-Biden in record numbers.

In 2004, white traditional Catholics went 78% for the Republican, George Bush, and 22% for Democrat John Kerry, according to a survey by Prof. John Green of University of Akron. In 2008, they went 61%-39% for John McCain over Barack Obama. That represents an amazing 17 point improvement for the Democrat.
(A "traditional Catholic," according to Prof. Green's methodology, is one who is more likely than average to attend mass, pray, and read scripture; more likely to believe in God, the afterlife, scripture and the devil; and more likely to say religion is very important in their lives.)

How did a pro-choice, pro-gay rights, Protestant make such inroads? Prof. Green suggests that the first reason is the economy. These traditional Catholics voted for Obama despite his liberal views on social issues.

-snip-
The Pope As Secondary Influence. In the run-up to the Iraq war, Catholics heard Pope John Paul II's opposition and Bush's support – and sided with Mr. Bush. But that doesn't mean the pope's views didn't register at all. When the war turned south, Catholic opinion turned rapidly against it. I can't help but think the church planted seeds of doubt. One of the reasons traditional Catholics supported Obama was because they oppose the Iraq war.

The Recessive FDR Gene. Catholics became Democrats in the early 20th century because the party welcomed immigrants and created jobs. As those Catholics grew older, they became more distant from the immigrant experience and more secure economically. They then had the luxury of worrying about other issues like crime and abortion. In 2008, for the first time in almost 90 years, we saw an economic calamity AND a growing anti-immigrant sentiment -- both attributed to Republicans. And you had the Catholic Church preaching economic equity and support for immigrants. On some level, the children and grandchildren of the FDR Catholic Democrats may have carried "Democratness" as a recessive gene, minor, rarely seen, but ready to reawaken under just the right circumstances.

"Abortion Reduction." The survey data also showed that about a quarter of Obama's vote came from people describing themselves as pro-life. Many of these pro-life voters picked Obama in spite of his views on abortion, not because of them, but Obama's talk about "abortion reduction" in effect gave them "permission" to vote for a pro-choice candidate on other issues.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123575245476095601.html

Just like most of my family.

:-)

"All this is why, to keep traditionalist Democrats in the long run, Obama will not only have to improve the economy but deliver on some set of socially conservative issues such as abortion."

I think Obama is attracting traditionalist voters precisely because it's clear that he and his agenda are both morally grounded in a way that we haven't been accustomed to, and that this is more important than particular kneejerk issues.

If I'm right, then delivering on litmus test issues is not going to be a major factor -- and I sure hope I am right, because abortion is likely to play a major role in Supreme Court nominations, and it would sure suck if Obama felt it was necessary to defer to the cultural right in his choices.

At any rate, we shall see.

and biden knowing he wouldn't the first time

My mother is quite devout (attends mass every morning, in fact). When we were talking, before the election, she said she didn't think she could vote for Obama/Biden, because Biden was for abortions.

I corrected her, and told her that very few people are actually in favor of abortions. But that Biden's position was that it was too important a decision to be made by the government, and should be left to the individual woman and her conscience. My mom was a bit taken aback, and said "Well, that's exactly how I feel about it!"

Bingo. And I don't think she's alone. I think in part, the rw machine didn't succeed against Obama in their usual disinformation campaigns. He outsmarted them on that. And I think enough people were getting the message across to these devout Catholics in the way they needed to hear it.

I do not believe Obama is in any way beholden to this group - if it means changing his positions to appease them. I do think it means he's been given a chance - and a chance to broaden the discussion to all matters of life: the poor, the hungry, fair wages, war, etc. And that we'll likely show again that the positions taken by the hardline right have only resulted in increased numbers of abortions.

At least so far.

I think more Catholics saw through the four flushing shell games that the right likes to play when it comes to human life, that for all their supposed dedication to human life it's that the only life that seems to matter is life that hasn't been born yet or life that they think can score them political points.