Woodward Analysis: Target Rachel?

Please note the following analysis was written by someone with a glass-is-half-empty mentally and is not meant to frighten, upset, or antagonize Rachel Alexandra fans and zealots.

Rachel Alexandra drew post 3 for Saturday’s $750,000 Woodward Stakes (gr. I). No big deal, you say? By breaking close to the rail, and with a big bruiser in the aptly named Bullsbay drawing directly inside her in post 2 and a speedy Nick Zito-trained stalker, Cool Coal Man, directly outside her in post 4, a scenario is developing where Rachel could find herself in some heavy traffic at different stages of the race.

When you see Zito put in two tactical speed horses against a heavy favorite who has the same running style as his horses, you can bet he has an agenda, meaning Da ‘Tara, breaking from the rail and coming off a bullet :47 flat work on the Oklahoma training track, likely will bust out of the gate to assure Rachel will not get an easy lead in case that strategy was to enter Calvin Borel’s mind. If Rachel takes off the pace, she will have Cool Coal Man, It’s a Bird, and Past the Point all in a position to pin her down on the rail behind Da’ Tara, meaning there is a decent chance she could wind up in a neat little box by the time they hit the backstretch.

Sitting back, waiting to see how the race unfolds, will be Asiatic Boy and Macho Again, both tough, battle-tested closers. Now, remember, this is merely a possible scenario based on how the race is shaping up. But it surely is one to be wary of.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/52393/woodward-analysis-target-rachel

Some great mares have tried to win this race but could never get it done. Shuvee and Lady's Secret both tried but came up short. I hope Rachel does it. - two gun sid

Haskin's got a solid analysis there. I think Rachel will win, but it's not a cakewalk by any stretch of the imagination. Just look at history and you'll see that. And Crist gets it just right too. I can't wait for this race on Saturday.


Rachel's agenda a perfect fit
By Steven Crist

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. - Win or lose on Saturday, Rachel Alexandra's appearance in the Woodward Stakes was both the most ambitious and appropriate place for the next stop in what already has been a historic campaign by a sensational filly. You might not gather as much amid the constant carping about her accomplishments and her schedule, from a variety of self-interested media outlets and from those still miffed she's not going to run in the Breeders' Cup.

The first half of last week's ESPN telecast of the Travers seemed devoted largely to Rachel Alexandra's absence from a race that would have repeated rather than enhanced her standing. Why exactly did she need to run again against Summer Bird, whom she had just dispatched by six lengths in the Haskell?

She had already beaten the Derby winner in the Preakness and the Belmont winner in the Haskell. After doing that, and annihilating fellow 3-year-old fillies by a combined 39 1/2 lengths in the Kentucky Oaks and the Mother Goose, it was time for her to face her elders - whether or not the most challenging opportunity to do so fell on the opening weekend of college football season.

The idea that Rachel Alexandra "ducked" the Travers for an easier spot in the Woodward is preposterous. The seven 3-year-olds who ran in the Travers had combined to win 21 races, $3.5 million, and 10 graded stakes. The seven older horses she will face in the Woodward Saturday have won 44 races, $8.5 million, and 14 graded stakes. It's not a stellar group, but it's a better one than assembled for the Travers.

So instead of doing something she had already done twice this year - beating 3-year-old males - Rachel Alexandra will try to beat older males in the Woodward, something that has never been done by a filly of any age. It's the toughest assignment of her career, and she's no cinch. A victory would be a major achievement. The complaint that the Woodward isn't what it used to be, because it has been moved from Belmont to Saratoga, doesn't quite jibe with the last two runnings, won by Lawyer Ron, the champion older male of 2007, and Curlin, the Horse of the Year last season.

Complete article: http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=106950&subs=0&arc=0

I was looking at the entries this morning and thinking the Woodward came up pretty tough for Rachel. Good luck to her. RUN LIKE A GIRL!!!!

It's too bad it's not going to be on National TV but, it is opening weekend of the College Football season.

Rachel Alexandra has assembled one of the most impressive campaigns by a 3-year-old filly in the modern era. In winning four consecutive Grade 1 stakes - part of a 7-for-7 season thus far - Rachel Alexandra has destroyed her own sex while twice dominating the males of her generation.

In the Kentucky Oaks and Mother Goose, Rachel Alexandra set stakes records for margin of victory. She was the first filly to win the Preakness in 85 years and just the second filly to win the Haskell Invitational.

But she has yet to meet a field with the quality and depth that she faces in Saturday's Grade 1, $750,000 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga. Seven older males, who have combined to win 23 stakes and bankroll $8.5 million, await the reigning queen of Thoroughbred racing in what may be the most anticipated race at this historic venue in years. The field includes Whitney winner Bullsbay, Stephen Foster winner Macho Again, Oaklawn Handicap winner It's a Bird, and the multiple group stakes winner Asiatic Boy. As a 3-year-old filly, Rachel Alexandra gets in with 118 pounds, eight fewer than her seven older male opponents.

No filly or mare has won the Woodward, which will be run for the 56th time Saturday as part of a 12-race card that also includes the Grade 1 Forego for male sprinters. Both stakes are part of a pick-four wager with a guaranteed pool of $500,000. The races will be televised by MSG-Plus in a one-hour program, and also will be shown on TVG and HRTV.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=4440290&campaign=rss&source=HORSEHeadlines

Spectacular Bid. All alone. Greatest horse to ever look through a bridle.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NcbHpy61bTk

I remember the Great Match Race with Ruffian and Foolish Pleasure and the aftermath of that disaster. It hurt racing badly when it was gaining new fans. It hurt to lose a great horse like Ruffian.

He beat a nice field and finally gets a Gr. 1 victory. I wish the Woodward was on national TV; it would help create some fans. I hope they all come back safe and sound, though, and this should be a fascinating race. Go, Rachel, go!

Riley Tucker went a little to quickly that 1st half. A couple of deep closers were able to get up and steal one. Glad Pyro won it, though. I've always liked him.

I was sort of rooting for My Pal Charlie, who has been a consistent sort and won the Super Derby last year. Sixteen minutes to the Woodward post time!!

Wowowowowowow! :)

The local baseball network. I'm so glad I saw it . Wow!

I thought Macho Again almost got her but, she showed her heart and held on. I have tears in my eyes.

Many other horses would've been cooked after those crazy fractions she set. Did you see her gallop out ahead of Macho Again after the wire? Ha! Magnificent horse. An all-time great filly. I was a little worried after she bucked Calvin off her back. And I didn't like her getting in a speed duel. She overcame a lot today, and I'll always remember this race.

Damn she looked great and every bit professional. Wow. This is the horse I've been tapping my toes and waiting for since 1980.

What heart. Shame there's no way she'll run in the Breeders cup..

let her have a rest. Send her to a nice farm and let her be a horse for a while. She has nothing to prove now, even though I'd like to see her and Zenyatta hook up in the BC.

she is .... something else. However, I hated seeing Borel flogging away at her in the stretch.

But I don't think Calvin was being excessive with it or trying to cause her pain, just keep her mind on business. If the banned the whip totally that would be best.

Great race and great horse.

Wow!!! and you go girl!!! :thumbsup: :yourock: :woohoo: :applause:

When Rachel acted up in the post parade, voices all around were chortling - "whoa-oh, she doesn't want to run today!" or, "She's not eager to face these boys today!" (I'd guess they were holding some "bet against" tickets, even if they had her in their Tris or whatever.)

Then, of course, after the first quarter the exclamations of "too fast! too fast!" were all around, with accompanying comments.

And then, when she won, there was a burst of resounding applause all around the big room! Made me smile; thought you guys might like it. "Run like a girl, Rachel!"

Somehow I think the race inspired a lot of that! Cool you got to see it with others, too, and share the experience. For me, it was me yelling and whooping at my computer screen with the tiny Xpressbet video player on! Heh. :)