Federer gets his shot at Nadal on grass

This should be fascinating. Conventional wisdom is Fed steamrolls the Spanish clay courter but I'm not so sure. I certainly wouldn't give the 1/5 odds, not with a 1-6 lifetime record as part of the favorite's resume. Once it gets to 3-3 or 4-4 in these sets the court conditions are irrelevant and it becomes a mental game, which is where Nadal has had the edge against Federer.

Nadal makes you win the point two or three times, the best defensive player I've ever seen. You could sense Agassi getting tense and start going for too much on his shots against Nadal last week, very similar to Federer in the French final. And same thing for Bags today. Nadal runs down everything so eventually you try for the line and miss. Even Nadal's unlikely returns have pace and perfect angles, hardly just keeping the point alive. Unless Fed dominates on first serves that dynamic should carry over to many of the points even on grass. Fed doesn't have the trump card serve and volley dominance of a Sampras or McEnroe. Other than grass, I could see Nadal continuing to have Federer's number on the other surfaces.

I'll hesitantly pick Federer but not easy and not in straight sets. Mostly I'm rooting for Federer. A win by Nadal makes him the clear cut #1, in the real world if not according to the computer rankings, while a Fed victory keeps the debate alive and sets up the US Open. Besides, Nadal's gamesmanship is increasingly annoying, toweling off after every service point among other things.

:bounce:

because the difference b/w grass and clay is huge, as michael chang or carlos moya or sergi brugera or even jim courier may point out :) But this final should be fantastic.

Still, those whose games are built for slow surfaces can still win at wimbledon, as agassi himself shows. I'd still have to go with federer, but it should be a great match, and if nadal wins, it would pretty much be a total overhaul of the landscape of men's tennis (similar to agassi's win in '92).

Twice, in fact.:)

If Federer went to the net more often it would be anything but irrelevant. Chang and Courier and Bruguera were constantly forced to pass someone at the net, someone usually 6-3 or 6-4 or with incredible wingspan like Sampras. Federer is seldom at net and he's a very average 6-1. I could see plenty of the big points evolving into baseline clashes and that's where Nadal gets everything back and forces Federer to press. You could really see him tighten up both in the Italian final and Roland Garros.

A Nadal win would be the most dramatic landscape switch I've ever seen, eclipsing Boris Becker coming out of nowhere in Wimbledon '85 after McEnroe was a 2/5 favorite to begin the tournament. McEnroe played his best tennis in the '84 Wimbledon and US Open titles and was expected to win several more Wimbledons but never even got to the final again.

Federer could go from GOAT (greatest of all time) to the second best player in his generation in a hurry tomorrow. A 1-7 lifetime record with losses on hard court, clay and grass leaves very little room for counter argument.

and if it gets into a baseline slugfest, I think that definitely negates any advantage federer might have from the surface.

I'm really looking forward to the match, though (just wish it didn't start so early on my Sunday morning ;))

..from what I've seen Nadal has been able to make it to the net on a few occasions and do a bit of the old serve-and-volley as well. I won't try predicting this one myself.

I'm looking forward to this one.

How weird is it that I get annoyed at Nadal's outfit? :)

Watching now.

I agree with you on your take.

I too am pulling for Fed but Nadal is certainly not going to go away and I do like him too.

Interesting match so far, into the late second set. Like the women's final, I won't be terribly disappointed whatever way this goes.

Strange that Nadal gets so nervous starting these finals against Federer. He lost the first set at Roland Garros 6-1 after falling behind 5-0, and of course the 6-0 today.

Hard to argue with Federer's success on grass but I agree with McEnroe's commentary today, that Federer would make it much more difficult on Nadal if he pressed the issue and came forward more often. At one point McEnroe said it almost looked like Federer was trying to find the one strategy that put him in jeopardy.

I've got to give Federer credit because it was so natural to have a letdown this year after the crushing defeat at the French. McEnroe mentioned that also, that he expected some type of letdown due to that loss and everything at stake. McEnroe and Johnny Miller are head and shoulders above other analysts because they recognize factors like that. In Las Vegas all the sharpest handicappers I met when I moved here in the '80s were talking about letdowns and uplifts and I thought they were nuts until I saw them forecasting and collecting. Luckily I wised up.

Fed really relied on the slice backhand today. In Paris he was rolling the backhand and it was ineffective and erratic.

It will be fascinating if they meet in New York since Federer never seems to have the same game plan with his backhand on hard court. Sometimes he slices for an entire set then the next thing you know he's rolling everything. I still think Nadal has a bit of a mental and defensive edge over Federer and right now if I had to choose I'd lean toward Nadal if they meet in the Open final.

I don't know nearly enough to be able to comment like that but it all makes sense.

I would agree with you about McEnroe, I always like when he is there. Some of them are just strange, especially on the women's side. I was so happy that Tracy Austin was not there.

As much as I love watching Fed and am hoping he pulls it off in the US Open it is wonderful to have Nadal in there. His youthful exuberance coupled with the fact that he seems such a nice kid is just wonderful. He just never gives up. I would much rather see him out there than Andy Roddick. I was surprised by a few of the newer guys too and Bagdatis (I don't know how to spell it) was looking pretty good too although I am not sure he is as solid as he seemed this slam. BUT...I really know very little except that I adore this sport.