|
It's 6-0 in the first half against the spread when the difference is a half yard or more. But this year it's a very mediocre 4-2 straight up and 3-3 against the spread, if for some reason you include the second half circus.
Ever notice that every single, "can you believe that!" bizarre turn of events happens in the second half? I'm amazed the commentators never mention that. Or that the second half counts when determining the advancing team.
Anyway, this week it's the Saints and the Colts with the YPPA edges so I'll take them in the first half. In the Super Bowl, it would be Indy over Chicago, Chicago over New England, New Orleans over New England, but no play if it's New Orleans vs. Indianapolis.
Chicago's numbers are skewed high since Tommie Harris and Mike Brown are missing from the defense that led the league in defensive YPPA. If you include the numbers from only the games that they've missed, Chicago is severely downgraded and would not be a play over New England.
New England is admittedly a bizarre team because they frequently play beyond their stats in the playoffs. Or should I say they score beyond their stats. New England's numbers are typically crappy in the playoffs but they benefit from implosion and inheritance. Some major stats sites like TwoMinuteWarning.com have New England assessed much higher than I do, since the Patriots score fairly highly in every category although they don't stand out anywhere. Last year New England had significant weaknesses and could confidently be dismissed in the playoffs, despite the 3 of 4 aura. This year the pass defense and rushing numbers are much better so it gives them a chance to hang around and allow nearby collapse.
|