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Edited on Mon Jun-16-08 01:22 AM by Awsi Dooger
That's what I was thinking about as Tiger lined up the final putt. Right there he was at least a 2/1 underdog. I don't give a damn what the swooning golf writers said later, the ones who said they "knew" he'd make it. They have no clue regarding probability, Tiger or otherwise.
But as soon as that putt went it, Tiger becomes a massive favorite tomorrow. On the betting sites he's basically a 1/4 favorite in man to man terms. I thought it would be 1/5.
A few scattered thoughts:
* Tiger has awesome mechanics in terms of alignment but damn does his swing vary. It's completely unlike Nicklaus, who always featured the same swing. With Tiger he's wildly late on some tee shots and early on others. One NBC announcer made a good point today that his swing is considerably more forceful on the course than the range, particularly with driver. I noticed that at Doral in March. Today he double crossed several attempted cuts. The erratic swing on longer clubs is what screwed him up in '03 and '04 when he couldn't hit a fairway.
* This is another example of how flimsy and scared and content this generation of golfers is, when Tiger pokes his name in contention. Early in today's telecast NBC said the course was manageable, with shorter setup and several prime pin positions. You even had a 267 yard par 4. There was a 65 early, and Mickelson had a 68. Yet among the final 11 groups I don't think anyone was under par. That was inconceivable in the '60s and '70s. Johnny Miller has mentioned repeatedly that no one ever shoots a 63 or 65 to snatch one from Tiger.
* The program before Sunday's telecast was a joke. They promoted it for months, whether a 10 handicap could break 100 on a US Open setup. Unfortunately they choose a clod golfer for the attempt and he shot 114. Great guy with cancer trouble but that shouldn't have been the priority level. It was genuinely interesting how a mid level handicapper would fare on that course but this guy refused to hit a driver until the 18th hole. His hybrids were no match for a 7700 yard course and he was so inept NBC stopped featuring him after the 4th hole. My dad at one point said, "At least show his feet." Instead we were treated to Justin Timberlake and Matt Lauer, scrambling to break 100. Oh joy. Plus Tony Romo, who is a good golfer, managing 84 with a 4 putt. When the amateur filled out the forms and volunteered for that opportunity he was taking a risk of embarrassment, and NBC needed to display his flops. He bogeyed holes one through four and NBC was highlighting the decent performance. At that point we got one shot of him in the rough, followed by a quick summation of "triple bogey, quadruple bogey..." He literally went from +4 to +28 in 7 or 8 holes. That telecast should have been 2 hours, not 1 hour, with plenty of holes shown in their entirety. Johnny Miller could point out swing flaws and strategic flaws that average players could take note of.
* Somebody on The Golf Channel made an awesome point a few weeks ago: Tiger will catch Jack but if it had been reversed Jack would have caught Tiger. Jack put the bar at 18 but he really had nothing to shoot for, after topping Hagen.
* It can't be understated how significant the playoff is for Mediate. The winner gets a 10 year exemption, perfect for someone in his mid 40s. No more worries about qualifying. He could alternate regular tour and senior tour at his leisure once he turns 50. The sap media loves to pretend a Bob May, or Paul Goydos from a month ago, will challenge again in a major event but these journeyman types are one and done. The 18 hole playoff result will be something Mediate thinks about literally every day for the rest of his life.
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