Boxing! (July 23 - 26, 2008)

Wednesday, July 23 - at Cabazon, California (ESPN2) - 10 rounds, super middleweights: Jeff Lacy (23-1, 17 KOs) vs. Epifanio Mendoza (28-5-1, 24 KOs).

Friday, July 25 - at Saratoga Springs, New York (ESPN2) - 10 rounds, middleweights: Raymond Joval (37-4, 16 KOs) James McGirt Jr. (18-1, 9 KOs); 8 rounds, heavyweights: Gary Wilcox (21-3-1, 7 KOs) vs. Nagy Aguilera (8-0,6 KOs).


Saturday, July 26 - at Las Vegas (HBO PPV) - 12 rounds, IBF & WBA welterweight titles: Miguel Cotto (32-0, 26 KOs) vs. Antonio Margarito (36-5, 26 KOs); 12 rounds, interim WBA light flyweight title: Giovanni Segura (19-0-1, 15 KOs) vs. Cesar Canchila (26-1, 19 KOs); 10 rounds, light welterweights: Mike Alvarado (21-0, 14 KOs) vs. Cesar Bazan (47-10-1, 30 KOs).

This is an important week in the sport of boxing. Though there are other good matches scheduled, I will focus on the above three: two are being televised on ESPN, and the third is PPV.

In the WNFs, we get to see Jeff Lacy against a journeyman, in a fight that is intended to showcase Lacy’s "return" to boxing. Lacy had been an exciting amateur, who had a 209 -12 record. He was in the 1996 Olympic try-outs, and on the 2000 Olympic team. As a professional, he had a 21-0 record, when he fought champion Joe Calzaghe (40-0) on March 4, 2006. It was a one-sided 12 round decision loss for Lacy.

He has only fought twice since then. First, he was awarded a controversial majority decision over Vitali Tsypko in December of ’06; he looked muscle-bound, and lacked the speed that had made him an explosive fighter. Afterward, his manager said that he entered the ring with an injured shoulder (if true, it does not speak well for his management). A year later, he won a decision over Peter Manfredo, Jr

His opponent is being promoted as a serious test for Lacy. It has been noted that he has a 28-5-1 record. Let’s take a closer look. In his first 15 fights, 13 opponents had never won a single fight before facing Mendoza. One was 0-11 going into their fight. Of the other two, one had a 1-3 record, the other a 10-19 record.

Mendoza has been KOed in 2 of his last 6 fights, most recently by Chad Dawson. In between those two loses, he had four wins. His opponents combined for 2-18 in their last 20 fights before fighting Mendoza.

The Calzaghe fight took a lot out of Jeff Lacy. He took a physical whipping, but the psychological damage appears to be far more significant. Before that fight, Lacy was frequently featured on Showtime, against some serious opposition. It is too bad that he is fighting against such a weak opponent on Wednesday, but I can appreciate that ESPN recognizes it is actually an important fight, as far as helping to measure what the future may hold for Jeff Lacy.

The FNFs are at Saratoga Springs. James McGirt, Jr is, in my opinion, a fairly limited fighter, as far as the top of his division goes. He is coming off a tough 7 round TKO loss in April, to Carlos De Leon, Jr. The undercard features a number of good local fighters.

That brings to to what, at least on paper, is the most important fight of the year, Cotto vs Margarito. Considering both fighters’ skills, it should be the Fight of the Year, as well.

Margarito was born in March of 1978; Cotto in October of 1980. Margaito is 5’11", with a 73" reach; Cotto is 5’7", with a 67" span. Margaritto, from Mexico, had a relatively brief amateur career (18-3); Cotto, from Puerto Rico, was among the top amateurs in the world. Although he never was at the very top, his style impressed the boxing world as being more likely to bring success in the professional ranks, and indeed, he reversed his loss in the 2000 Olympics as a pro.

Margarito has won two. Welterweight titles. He defended his first title 3 times, then moved up to challenge tough Daniel Santos. That fight ended in a "no decision," after a clash of heads in the first round opened serious cuts on both men. He then defended his title four more times, including a TKO in 5 over previously undefeated slugger Kermit Cintron. Two fights after that, he was being outclassed by Joshua Clottey, until Clottey sustained an injury. Margairito, who threw a high rate of punches in every round, won a decision. In his next fight, he was easily decisioned by Paul Williams. He has won two in a row since then, looking impressive in winning the vacant welterweight title with a first round knockout over Golden Johnson, then defending it with a 6 round KO over Cintron.

Margarito has long hoped to fight the top guys in his division, but has not been given the chance to fight the same quality of warriors that Cotto has. It appears to be due to a combination of his skills, and his failure thus far to sell tickets at the level that made fighting him worth it for the top fighters.

Cotto won the WBO Jr. Welterweight crown, and defended it six times. Two that stand out include his September, ’05 defense against Ricardo Torres, and his June, ’06 defense against Paul Malignaggi. He decked Torres in the first round; got decked in the second (and was seriously hurt); resorted to low blows in the 3rd (the ref gave Torres a rest); decked him again in round 6; and KOed him in the 7th.

Malignaggi sustained a cut in the first minute of their fight, and was forced to change his style. He took a severe beating, including have a bone in his face fractured. But he showed that Cotto is most vulnerable when someone pushes him backward, and late in the fight, he staggered Cotto. A curious call by the referee helped Cotto get time to recover. Since then, Paul has said that Cotto is the dirtiest fighter he has ever fought: Cotto hit him low repeatedly, butted, and used his elbows, forearms and shoulders inside.

Cotto moved up and won the WBA Welterweight crown with 5 round TKO over tough Carlos Quintana. He has defended it 4 times, including victories over Zab Judah (TKO 11) and Shane Mosley (W 12). In the Judah fight, Cotto scored two ealy "knockdowns" with decidedly low blows.

Margarito has advantages in height and reach; however, he cuts easily, and two of his fights have ended early due to cuts from butts. (He didn’t win either time.) Cotto’s head will be near Margaito’s face inside. He needs to use that reach. He has explosive power, although his punches are often too wide. When he is in shape, he can go 12 hard rounds; however, he oftens gets off to a slow start. This is his first "super fight." His defensive skills are below average for those in actual "super fights."

Cotto is a banger, but he has surprising defensive skills. He has said that his hero growing up was the great Wilfredo Benitez, a master at defense. Cotto showed his ability to out-box the very talented Shane Mosley. He is also a vicious body-puncher, something I think separates the greats from the very greats. More, he shows a willingness and ability to do whatever is necessary to win. He is willing to lose a point or two early, in order to weaken a foe over the long run with outrageous low blows. And, as Malignaggi says, he uses his head, shoulder, elbows, and forearms to foul opponents inside, though he is rarely called on it.

On paper, Cotto has the advantage. If nothing else, two intense punchers enter the ring, with only one having good defensive skills. But there is also Cotto’s ability to get away with ugly, very dirty fighting, and Margarito’s bleeding.

Of course, these two warriors aren’t fighting on paper. Although Cotto has more experience with the pressure of big fights, and has faced better opposition, Margarito has the ability to hurt him. And, if he hurts him, he has the ability to knock Cotto out. This is the opportunity he has waited his whole career for, and he knows if he loses, he probably wont’t get another chance like this.

I favor Cotto, but nothing would surprise me in this fight. It could end in the first minute of the first round, or go the full 12 rounds. Logic says Cotto wins it by a late-round TKO, with Margairito bloodied and hurt from left hooks to the body.

I agree of course that Cotto is the more skilled fighter, with better hand speed, better head movement and the ability to duck punches, better foot movement, and the ability to deliver straighter punches than Margarito. Margarito also has the tendency to bend forward when he fights and it gets more pronounced as the fight goes on, making him vulnerable to the uppercut and that great left hook to the body that Cotto possesses. Margarito has almost no head movement but instead likes to put his gloves up, giving Cotto an opening to the body. Margarito has an amazing chin, however. I saw the replay of the Cintron fight and was astonished at how this man can take a hard, flush shot. Margarito has never been knocked out and I don't think I've ever seen him seriously hurt. Cotto doesn't have one punch knock out power and I don't think he hits as hard as Cintron, but Margarito's body may be another matter and Cotto really rips to the body.

My one question regarding Cotto concerns his stamina. He had stamina issues at junior welterweight which he said have been resolved since he moved up to welter. Cotto looked very tired at the end of the Malignaggi fight and I thought he looked completely spent at the end of the Mosley fight. I thought Mosley outboxed and outfought Cotto, who looked in bad shape at the end and I gave Mosley three of the last four rounds in their close fight. Margarito on the other hand is an even busier fighter than Cotto and his stamina never seems to diminish. He and Paul Williams were still throwing multiple punches at each other at the end of their fight. Margarito never stops, he throws a ton of combinations and he's always looking to follow up with a couple of punches after he's been hit instead of backing off, like a true Mexican warrior.

I think this will be a war of wills. I give Cotto the best shot of winning because of his superior skills as you mention, but I think if Margarito's body can survive into the later rounds, he just might wear the smaller Cotto down. I anticipate a very busy pace from early on in a war of attrition. It should be a great fight.

Margarito sometimes starts slow, but has great endurance. Cotto tends to tire out if he is in a long fight. That could be a deciding factor in this fight.

He's a skilled guy, great fighter.

That being said, I'm taking Margarito. There is something to be said for will and toughness and rising to the occasion when you finally get that big shot you've always dreamed about.

on edit:

I have no real rationale for my pick, I just feel it, baby. :)

One of our friends who will be here for the fight came to the US from Mexico as a teenager; he teaches at the local state university. He is 110% for Margarito, and said that one of the most interesting things about the fight is the "pride factor." Whenever a top fighter from Mexico faces a top fighter from Puerto Rico, that plays a role.

My son also says that while Cotto has to be favored on paper, he thinks Margarito will win. He thinks that Cotto has to adjust his style, because being as aggressive as he normally is would expose him to Margarito's full power. He thinks the advantage in reach will allow Margarito to make it difficult for Cotto to try to fight on the outside, and that Cotto will opt to try to bring the fight inside. He does think that Cotto's body attack poses the biggest danger to Margarito inside, but he believes that two things will come into play: first, he believes that Margarito is "tougher" than Cotto, and more capable of fighting through intense pain to win (the "warrior factor"); and second, he thinks that not only will Margarito hit Cotto harder than anyone has yet, but that Margarito will be the first person to hit Cotto with more than one punch in a row. That is based on Margarito's ability to put punches together, and the range he has with his being taller and having the longer reach.

One thing is for sure: if either man gets hurt, they are in trouble, because both of these guys are outstanding at finishing someone off. And that holds true from the first bell to the last.

I told my son that I don't rule anything out in this fight. He said he is confident that we can rule out it ending in a draw.

Good luck to both men. Let's hope this is decided by them, and not the officials. And who knows? Maybe this will be the first in a series of three fights between these two.

It should be fun. I'll probably catch the live stream here on the internets, which, as we all know, is a series of tubes.

I have to agree with your son's assessment. I think it could very well work out that way. I think Cotto is going to have to face some adversity, so it just depends on how he reacts to it. Some guys are so used to being the lead horse that when they get roughed up some they don't know what to do. Panic sets in, it's like they realized for the first time that they are human. Like you said, nobody has really even put together more than one punch at a time on him. It'll be interesting to see what happens when he's seriously challenged.

a close decision. It was a hard-fought contest, and both men were hurt. It seemed clear that Lacy was more seriously "wobbled" -- actually, a couple times -- but he fought back. Both men gave it their all.

Lacy gets tired, because he throws little but very hard punches. He needs to change that. He also needs to develope his jab, and he will continue be in tough, entertaining fights.

Reports from training camps makes it sound like the Big Fight is going to be great. Cotto sounds focused, and in the best condition possible. From what I've read, he is planning a vicious body attack.

Margarito reportedly has worked very hard yo prepare for the fight. He has great respect for Cotto, and plans for a long, intense struggle. He is going to try to set a fast pace early on, in hopes that Cotto will fade in the late rounds.

It's a shame that either man has to lose on Saturday. I have great respect for each of them as a fighter, and both seem like really decent guys outside the ring. But I think this is a fight where both men will come out knowing they have been in the toughest fight of their career.

You're right about the jab. Lacy just leaps in with punches, completely exposing himself to counters, instead of jabbing his way inside. Lacy was rocked in the 2nd or 3rd round and lost his equilibrium and his legs. I don't think he completely recovered after that. It didn't look like that great a punch to me, as it was a wide sweeping shot that Mendoza threw while back on his heels. In fact, it looked like Lacy was getting rocked by jabs. Like you, I noticed that Lacy ran out of gas in the middle of the fight and wasn't able to pace himself. Fortunately for him, Mendoza ran out of gas in the last couple of rounds and stopped punching back. I don't know if that fight isn't a bad sign for Lacy. Mendoza was destroyed by Chad Dawson (admitting it was a light heavyweight fight, one weight class above Lacy) and Lacy didn't come close to putting Mendoza away and in fact at two separate points in the fight looked like he might get knocked out himself. I do have to give Lacy credit, though, for sucking it up and hanging in there to the win. But I think he took way too much punishment, nearly got knocked out a couple of times, had his left eye nearly closed, might have re-injured his left hand, which might diminish him in his next fight. Like you, I hope he can improve his technique and rely more on the jab, as he has the potential to be an exciting fighter because of his big heart.

would be that Jeff Lacy retire. In two of his last three fights, he has been given questionable decisions. In the first one, I believe he did injure himself. Last night, at one point Teddy Atlas noted Lacy had shaken his hand; Atlas said he may have hurt it. I believe that Lacy had just signaled to his opponent that he had been hit low. Lacy's punch output slowed down with each hand, because he was so tired.

He is an entertaining, explosive fighter. But he never really hurt his opponent, and he missed way too many punches for that level of competition. And he is too easy to hit and hurt. Lacy strikes me as one of the nicer guys in the sport, but he is likely to be exploited by promoters. Boxing is many things, among them a business where nice guys like Jeff Lacy get hurt so that others can make money off them. There are a number of top ten contenders who would hurt Lacy at this point.

If ya wanna dish out the bucks for the PPV, this is the one this year. Personally ..... love both guys ..... would have wanted to see them both against other opponents before squaring off, but that's boxing. Margarito 30 years old (2 years past prime as a boxer?) Cotto .... 5'7" and at a telling reach disadvantage? If Margarito stays 'busy' we could see an upset here? Too many questions in this fight to pick one over the other to me. Gut feeling .... Margarito has waited longer for the spotlight and is more hungry for finally getting something to prove. His fight against Williams he didn't take seriously, this fight (against Cotto) is his one (first?) and maybe last 'real shot'. He will bring it ...... or Cotto will prove he's todays best pound for pound?

Okay I give up? :):):) ..... oughta be a great fight. Make that awesome fight. I'll say they both get bloodied, both get knocked down a 'few times' ... 'freaking brawl' ...... and Margarito wins by close decision. Knockout on either part could happen too ..... ???? :)

Guess I better invite a few friends over and buy the damn thing on PPV huh? Go Cotto and Go Margarito !!!! F..K ...... maybe one will pull out of the fight ..... and I can go see the Batman movie again instead for kicks? ;)

on buying PPV fights. I used to get 10-12 per year. Now, I get one, or at very most, two.

This is the one to get. The only thing I can see that could make it less than "fight of the year" is if the ref is Jay Nady, or the judges have an agenda.

I have been thinking of evry possible outcome. I think it will be a matter of which fighter is more prepared psychologically .... and while under "normal" circumstances (as if boxing is ever "normal"), I would rate Cotto as one of the most intensely focused fighters of this era, a guy who feels he has been unjustly kept from the top fights may have an edge. It's one of those hard-to-define factors.

If you get a chance to watch the ESPN FNFs tonight, look for me and another DUer in the press section.

Enjoy the bouts. As for the fight tomorrow night I've slept on it and am now leaning Margarito's way slightly ..... 4 inches taller and the reach advantage .... course by Saturday I'll probably have changed my mind? ;) .... Again fun weekend for the fight business.

I'll be posting some pictures later today. Interesting fights, and fun talking with Teddy Atlas, Gerry Cooney, Ray Joval, and many others.

If there are any interesting stories or info you can share, I hope you do.

Yesterday on the broadcast, Teddy Atlas really tore in to one of the judges of the Jeff Lacy fight. One of the refs gave the 2nd round where Mendoza nearly knocked Lacy out and in which Teddy Atlas made it an 10/8 round for Mendoza a 10/9 round in favor of Lacy. Teddy Atlas couldn't get over it. He named that ref by name (I don't remember it) and said he hoped the California boxing commission calls him on the carpet and asks him point blank to explain his scoring in that round. Atlas said that people come up to him all the time saying that they love boxing but can't get into the sport because of the inconsistency in the judging. Atlas said something has to be done about the bad judging.

tonights brawl to post them ;) ..... know you won't ... Okay I'm punching in the PPV event on the TV for 6 pm tonight . Let the war commence, this should be fun, and loud !!! :)

These picture make me lean still a bit towards Margarito ... sizing them up, We shall see. Enjoy !!! :)

An excellent pace, they just started round 5. Margarito seems a little one dimensional. But he's a powerful guy. It's really shaping up well so far.

on edit:

Woa, Cotto's got some speed and defensive skills! The last few seconds of round five was amazing!

I'm split watching this fight on the computer and I just watched a great fight in EliteXC.

Cotto loses!!!! That makes my week.
:woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo::woohoo:

You could see Cotto start to break. Little by little. Amazing job.

There's a good example of it there. That was truly a great fight, and a great comeback for Margarito.

Scott Smith and Robbie Lawler are fighting in a few minutes. I'm just pumped up all around. :)

EliteXC was over about 10 minutes before the Cotto/Margarito fight started.

Well Mountain time, but Arizona doesn't do daylight savings.

I called it. I just felt it. Margarito doesn't have it in him to step backwards. Constant pressure. If this was just about who was the better athlete, the more skilled guy, well Cotto, but Margarito did it on sheer will. Conditioning and will. Awesome.

To quote my earlier post:

"That being said, I'm taking Margarito. There is something to be said for will and toughness and rising to the occasion when you finally get that big shot you've always dreamed about."

Sensational work. I am proud of Margarito, always liked him.

didn't effect Margarito at all. Usually when Cotto lands shots like that, the opponents are hurt. However, Margarito walked right through them - almost terminator-like.

He just keeps coming. Powerful guy.