Many pub. Medical studies & claims here are invalid-so important to understand scientific method

Many pub. Medical studies & claims here are invalid-so important to understand scientific method

My son, who has a good background in scientific method and logic, has expressed frustration with bogus claims, invalid logic, and propaganda seen on health forums and in the media; and the fact that most people don’t seem to know the difference. He’s heard me complain about the same things. I agreed to provide some basics to him on the scientific method and how to know how to assess claims regarding scientific hypotheses and studies, since I have a background in such.

I had a strong interest in logic and the scientific method so one of my 3 masters degrees along the long route of my PhD program was in Statistics with a focus on these. While in graduate school I worked in the Biomedical and Statistical Consulting Center under a biomedical grant to the Dept. of Statistics to improve the scientific methodology in the biomedical and science programs. I advised PhD dissertation writers and professors writing papers for publications on how to develop and carry out valid scientific methodology in their papers. In my studies we had a course that was totally spent analyzing published papers in peer-reviewed publications in the science and medical fields that we dealt with. I was shocked to find the degree of lack of understanding of the basic principals of logic and the scientific method among PhD candidates and professors, and the degree of invalid methodology found in published, peer-reviewed scientific papers. After graduating I’ve taught college courses in logic and scientific methodology before going to work as a researcher/expert witness for Gov’t agencies.

It would be nice if those doing research and making scientific claims had a better background in logic and scientific methodology. But a part of the problem is that special interests deliberately manipulate the public to convince them of something invalid though inaccurate claims regarding either invalid or valid studies/arguments.

But it’s also important for those of the public whose good health is at stake to understand something about the scientific method and how to distinguish the valid from the invalid among the many claims and counterclaims regarding medical studies and health issues-since there is a huge amount of money and special interest propaganda involved in trying to persuade the public on how to spend their money on health.

My definition of propaganda and bogus studies is claims and studies that are deliberately manipulated and inaccurate to convince the public of something known to be invalid. In my experience, I believe this is common these days.

The Scientific Method: opinions, claims, propaganda, bogus studies and claims vs scientific validity

A scientific argument has hypotheses and a conclusion. If the argument is valid and the hypotheses true, then the conclusion is true. The object is to reach true conclusions about things to improve your health. .

Its important to understand how to know whether a scientific argument is “valid” and whether a hypothesis is true. If the argument is not valid or if any hypothesis is not true, nothing can be asserted about the truth of the conclusion.

Some Valid Scientific Symbolic Arguments

1.If A, then B (hypothesis) --- (All A are B)
A (hypothesis)
Therefore B (conclusion)

2.If A, then B --- (all A are B)
Not B
Therefore Not A

3.If A then B -----------------(all A are B)
If B then C -----------------(all B are C)
Therefore If A then C ------(all A are C)

4.A or B
Not A
Therefore B

5.No A are B
B
Therefore not A

6.Some A are B
All B are C
Therefore some A are C

How to determine whether a hypothesis is true or whether a scientific conclusion is proven

If the form of a scientific argument is not valid, then the conclusion has not been proven true irregardless of the truth of the hypotheses. This is not unusual in studies.

For a hypothesis, the population under consideration must be clearly defined and the hypothesis clearly worded in a manner that is either true or false. If someone can demonstrate one case or example where the hypothesis is not true, then the scientific conclusion is not supported by the argument. The conclusion may still be true but has not been proven.

If the hypothesis is of a quantitative nature, the hypothesis can be tested by taking a random sample from the population and seeing if the hypothesis is true for the sample. If the sample is large enough and representative of the general population, the value result for the sample likely reflects the result for the population. There are statistical methods to determine how large a sample is needed to have a given confidence level that a calculated value for the sample also reflects accurately the value for the population. There is often a tradeoff in money vs accuracy with regard to the chosen sample size.

To disprove a claimed scientific conclusion based on a scientific argument, all you have to do is show the scientific argument form is not valid or find one counterexample where a hypothesis is not true.

It is my opinion that many claims on forums like this and in the media and in advertisements can easily be seen to not be valid, if one understands the basics of the scientific method and knows or investigates a little regarding the topic. Likewise for claims in medical studies and abstracts.