Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Watched 'Very Carefully"

Asteroid With Chance of Hitting Earth in 2029 Now Being Watched 'Very Carefully'

By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
posted: 24 December 2004
09:58 am ET

Update, Dec. 24, 10:19 p.m. ET: An asteroid that has a small chance of hitting Earth in the year 2029 was upgraded to an unprecedented level of risk Friday, Dec. 24. Scientists still stress, however, that odds are further observations will show the space rock won't be on a collision course with the planet.

The risk rating for asteroid 2004 MN4 was raised Friday by NASA and a separate group of researchers in Italy.

The asteroid's chance for hitting Earth on April 13, 2029 has now been categorized as a 4 on the Torino Scale. The level 4 rating -- never before issued -- is reserved for "events meriting concern" versus the vast majority of potentially threatening asteroids that merely merit "careful monitoring."

The Dec. 24 update from NASA stated:

"2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronomers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6 percent, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale. Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98 percent chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029."

With a half-dozen or so other asteroid discoveries dating back to 1997, scientists had announced long odds of an impact -- generating frightening headlines in some cases -- only to announce within hours or days that the impact chances had been reduced to zero by further observations. Experts have said repeatedly that they are concerned about alarming the public before enough data is gathered to project an asteroid's path accurately...cont'd

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/asteroid_risk_041224.html

That's pretty darn substantial, even if still unlikely.

:scared: :shrug:

http://blogs.salon.com/0001561/2004/12/27.html#a6538

Peter

That's better. :-)

http://davidappell.com/archives/00000528.htm