Interesting analysis on possible contributing factors to the Air France 447 tragedy

It's a detailed analysis that attempts to correlate the predicted flight path of the jet with the location and intensity of tropical systems in the area. The author thinks turbulence was the main contributing factor (although with these types of things it's usually more than one event...).

I've never had to fly through that particular region over the atlantic but it looks like a rough place overall. Have a look, it's interesting.

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

storms like this - and the first commentator said -

"I am an Air France Captain, found your post very interesting and if true, will be hugely damaging for Air France.
Best regards"

If the storm was young (as I think the author claims) then there is a good chance that that particular area could be missed by radar.


I suspect the first comment is BS. But there seem to be some serious ones. The one about hail is interesting.

"The airplane that crashed last night - tail number F-GZCP - had no accidents or incidents in its history. It went into service on April 18, 2005 and had logged 18,870 hours. In 2006, its wing collided with the tail of an Airbus A321 on the ground at Charles de Gaulle Airport - the damage was classified as "minor". It was last in the hangar on April 16, 2009 for routine maintenance."

Interesting.

--Of course, based on the limited information available. If the bulk of the precipitation was below the aircraft and the radar wasn't tilted down to see it, it is possible to fly into the top of a building cell without knowing it is there. I've done it in the middle of the night myself, and it is quite a thump.

It's hard to imagine that these pilots weren't working the radar pretty hard while flying through this stuff, but maybe that's what happened...

totally objective and background factual data reported and shared in an unemotional way. Makes me pround of our pilots and meterologists and all supporters of flights.

I shouildn't bring this up, but I am reminded of the trolls that hit DU after the Wellstone crash. Trying to sell us on ice even after authorities ruled out ice. The put downs, snears, and smears against those grieving and speculating was something that really stuck in my memory. It was a grand troll hit. And nearly instantaneously. They all knew each othr from DU or their day jobs and assigned coverages as they started and ended their disinformaiton assingments. That's the way I remember it and the memory won't fade.