Earth, 2300: Too hot for humans
Parts of the planet could start to become too hot and humid for people to survive in a century or so if we fail to limit global warming. So says a startling study published last week in PNAS, which most of us journalists seem to have missed until now.
Some regions would start to become too hot and humid for human habitation with a global temperature rise of 7 °C, the paper says. With a rise of 11 °C or more, the most of the human population as currently distributed would either have to move or rely on air conditioning to avoid dying of heat stress.
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At the moment, virtually nowhere on Earth has a wet-bulb temperature of more than 30 °C. But with a global rise of 11 °C, huge areas would have wet-bulb temperatures of more than 35 °C for part of the year. According to the climate model used by the team,
these regions would include much of the eastern US, the entire Indian subcontinent, most of Australia and part of China."If warmings of 10 °C were really to occur in {the} next three centuries,
the area of land likely rendered uninhabitable by heat stress would dwarf that affected by rising sea level," write Sherwood and co-author Matthew Huber of Purdue University in Indiana. "Heat stress thus deserves more attention as a climate-change impact."
How likely are we to reach such a point? Well, under business-as-usual scenarios the current prediction is for a 4 °C to 7 °C increase by 2100.
In the worst case scenario if we carry on as we are, in other words, some of our children might just live to see small parts of the world start to become too hot for human habitation. More:
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2010/05/earth-2300-too-hot-for-humans.html#more