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Ian David Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 10:43 AM
Original message
Earth, 2300: Too hot for humans
Edited on Tue May-11-10 10:45 AM by Ian David
Earth, 2300: Too hot for humans

Parts of the planet could start to become too hot and humid for people to survive in a century or so if we fail to limit global warming. So says a startling study published last week in PNAS, which most of us journalists seem to have missed until now.

Some regions would start to become too hot and humid for human habitation with a global temperature rise of 7 °C, the paper says. With a rise of 11 °C or more, the most of the human population as currently distributed would either have to move or rely on air conditioning to avoid dying of heat stress.

<snip>

At the moment, virtually nowhere on Earth has a wet-bulb temperature of more than 30 °C. But with a global rise of 11 °C, huge areas would have wet-bulb temperatures of more than 35 °C for part of the year. According to the climate model used by the team, these regions would include much of the eastern US, the entire Indian subcontinent, most of Australia and part of China.

"If warmings of 10 °C were really to occur in {the} next three centuries, the area of land likely rendered uninhabitable by heat stress would dwarf that affected by rising sea level," write Sherwood and co-author Matthew Huber of Purdue University in Indiana. "Heat stress thus deserves more attention as a climate-change impact."

How likely are we to reach such a point? Well, under business-as-usual scenarios the current prediction is for a 4 °C to 7 °C increase by 2100. In the worst case scenario if we carry on as we are, in other words, some of our children might just live to see small parts of the world start to become too hot for human habitation.

More:
http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/2010/05/earth-2300-too-hot-for-humans.html#more








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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
1. Man will not last that long
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Phoonzang Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 12:29 PM
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2. They'll be forced to do some kind of drastic geoengineering by the time it gets that bad.
Possible horrible side effects, but there will be a point where they'll have to risk it.
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Ter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 02:48 PM
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3. Maybe not today's humans
But future humans will likely adapt.
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h9socialist Donating Member (584 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 03:50 PM
Response to Original message
4. It is time to admit that our industrial system is incompatible with the biosphere!
And that capitalism is the absolutely worst form of economic system we could be saddled with in this period.
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freebrew Donating Member (478 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
5. 35 C figures to be 95 F?
95 isn't all that hot. It gets 100+ in many cities around the globe now.

Did I figure correctly? Or am I missing something?

Not that I don't believe in climate change, but something doesn't add up in the article?
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muriel_volestrangler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. It's the wet-bulb temperature
Edited on Tue May-11-10 05:21 PM by muriel_volestrangler
The problem is that we cannot survive if our skin temperature exceeds 35 °C for more than a few hours. Although many people live and even work in temperatures of 45 °C or more, sweating keeps their skin cool as long as it's not too humid.

Put in technical terms, human survival depends on a wet-bulb temperature of less than 35 °C. This is the temperature recorded by a thermometer covered in a wet cloth and kept well ventilated.

"The wet-bulb limit is basically the point at which one would overheat even if they were naked in the shade, soaking wet and standing in front of a large fan," Sherwood told USA Today.


Basically, 95F at 100% humidity.
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Ian David Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Why don't they include the Wet Bulb Temperature in our weather reports? It sounds useful. n/t
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miyazaki Donating Member (446 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. well you can always get the dim bulb report. n/t
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Ian David Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-12-10 07:23 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. Thanks. :P n/t
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WheelWalker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-11-10 11:03 PM
Response to Original message
9. I think they refer to this as a bad wet dream nt
Edited on Tue May-11-10 11:09 PM by WheelWalker
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