Reallocated Numbers Based on Second Preferences Gives Edwards A Solid Lead --- In Iowa

Forum Name General Discussion
Topic subject Reallocated Numbers Based on Second Preferences Gives Edwards A Solid Lead --- In Iowa
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x2572472#2572472
2572472, Reallocated Numbers Based on Second Preferences Gives Edwards A Solid Lead --- In Iowa
Posted by RiverStone on Wed Jan-02-08 10:40 AM

If we could only have a dime for every pundit or poll...but who here has not ventured to guess who will win? Of course, we only believe those polls that agree with our personal determination. This poll MUST be right! :hi:

December 31, 2007 — Using the same polling methodology that successfully predicted the outcome of the 2004 Democratic Caucus in Iowa, InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus, and it shows a statistical tie between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, with Barack Obama starting to lag.

Clinton has 30%, Edwards 29%, Obama 22%, with 14% committed to other candidates and 5% undecided.

The survey was conducted Dec. 28-29 among 788 likely Democratic voters in Iowa. The poll has been weighted for gender and age. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%.
Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.

Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:
Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

more:

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_1231_103.aspx

That would be an excellent outcome and would surely change the attitude of the press and would also affect the numbers in New Hampshire.

And it would make for some pleasant posting on DU.