Survivor Samoa - Episode 13

Another good episode. Not great, but I learned a lot and think I can predict the end now. My guess is now that Russell does not win, but Natalie wins. The biggest thing I took from this episode is that Russell made two HUGE mistakes. First, how he dealt with Shambo and second, how he reacted to the million dollar secret, that he is loaded.

I give Monica and Brett credit for their scramble. If nothign else, it may have cost Russell the game. I'm glad Mick and Jaison did not turn on Russell. They did not need to do it. One of them will be in it in teh end with Russell and Natalie and can win it if they play it right.

Russell's first mistake was in lyign to Shambo. By not telling her why he voted off John, he lost her voe on the jury. She will see thru his bs about John going after her. He should have told her John knew he had the idol and he had no way to argue without calling attention to that, so he decided not to argue with her about her promise not to vote for John. He shoudl have said sorry and promised to get Dave off next. It was a bad play and it will be a vote against him that may cost him teh bucks. Jaison never should have let go that Russell $2 mil out, but doign so puts a target on his back It also tells Russell that Mick can't be trusted since he only told that to Mick.

I LOVED the bowling with coconuts. It was amazing. Without the necklace, Dave is the obvious target. I loved Monica calling Russ out on the jury vote. HE is not gettign her vote. More on this later. Glad to see Mick and Jaison gettign nervous, but its too little too late. They gave up control and nwo have to win out ICs to get in for sure.

I felt bad for little Monica in that last IC. there was no way she could get that bag up that high. she ways, what, 75 lbs. That game favored the big guys over her. After this though came Russell's biggest mistake, he got unnerved by the disposal of information. all game he has been cool. If somethign got out about his money and he reacted better, he may have been able to lie about it or spin it. By getting upset he showed that he likes to conceal things, which turns people off. Huge mistake in his reaction. Almost as big as the error in tellign Mick to begin with.

I think the idol play at tribal was a good call. It signaled ot the otehrs that its a big risk in trying to get him that night. I'm sure if Mick and Jaison were close, that might have gotten them to got the otehr way. In the end, they were not goign foer him anyway, but still a good call.

So we are down to the final 6. My take is that Shambo and Brett go before the Foa Foa four, unless one wins an IC. I suspect its Russell and his gril NAtalie with one of the boys in the final three, probably Jaison because Mick is a bigger threat at the end. I think Natalie will win this thing. I'm sure she will get Laura and Monica's votes. I think she gets Shambo too, unless Russel is the only one not to vote Shambo out. I think she probably gets Brett's too. I bet Dave votes for either Mick or Jaison. I think Russell only gets Mick/Jaison, John and Erik's votes. The rest hate him.

I have for some time now. Mick is just there..Russell didn't play the social game that is needed to win. Natalie has made some good moves and is well liked by the Galu jury.

This episode cleared up one thing for me -- who that rarely seen kid was. Apparently his name is Brett and he has been there all 30+ days! I was amazed. I thought he was a part of the crew that just happened to wander in front of the camera once in a while. :sarcasm:

I think Russell has a chance at winning the whole thing because so many people go for game play in the end, even if they despised the person. I'm rooting for Jaison, personally. I also like Mick, but he didn't seem to be as involved as Jaison in the alliance/decisions with Russell. Natalie - I have nothing against her, but what did she do?

She is one tough person. She climbed walls, dove thru mud and grabbed those flags in the swing challenge. She has given as good or better than any other player. The other thing she did, was stick to her plan. The easy move now could have been to stab Russell in the back, but she has not. I suspect she will get the votes from Laura and her crew of two. We'll see though.

This show has a history of allowing potential winners to "fly under the radar" in a number of seasons, and I think that's what could be happening with Natalie. Besides, Russell is playing so hard, I think I'd almost sit back and let him do all the hard work and scheming. My goal would be simply not to piss him off and I think that's what Natalie is doing.

I agree with the OP--Russell made mistakes this week. I think lying to Shambo will turn out to be, ultimately, a very minor mistake. The big thing is the way he lost his cool. I don't think that was an act. And it paints a huge target on Mick's back.

If the Foa Foa four hang together, it'll be Brett, then Shambo out. However, if Jaison and Mick are smart, they'll try to alliance with Brett. They can force Russell to use the immunity idol, if nothing else, and get it out of play.

Also, I'm not sure I'd want Russell moved over to the jury prematurely so he can whisper poison in everyone's ears. He will be formidable if he goes into the finale because he has played very, very hard. He could also do a lot of damage on a jury even for a day or two, especially if he's angry at the person who engineered his exit, which seems likely to be the case.