The big story, of course, is that Obama won in large part by getting the youth out to vote for him overwhelmingly in the Iowa caucus last night. But I was pleased to see this diary (which was frontpaged) that showed this was not a new phenomenon, but a TREND, that started in 2004:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/4/15520/78965/953/430265According to estimates by CIRCLE (pdf) youth vote turnout at the caucus tripled tonight, rising from 4% to 11%. Within the Democratic caucus, over 46,000 young people participated, and young voters comprised 22% of all caucus-goers. According to entrance polls by CNN, 57% of those 17-29 year old caucus goers stood up to caucus for Barack Obama. Tonight, they drove his campaign to victory.
The numbers themselves were larger than expected, especially considering the early caucus date during winter break for most colleges. But no one who has been paying attention to young voters in the past four years should be surprised that young Iowans played such a significant role in tonight's caucus. These are not isolated incidents. In 2004, youth participation in the Iowa Caucus quadrupled. In the 2004 general election, youth turnout saw the largest increase in over a decade. Turnout was also up in 2006 (pdf). Tonight's caucus turnout was part of a four year trend in young voter turnout.
Tonight was also a victory for the Democratic Party. Participation in the caucus almost doubled. 212,000 Democratic voters turned out compared to 125,000 in 2004. About 46,000 of those caucus-goers were young voters. Compare that to the Republicans: CIRCLE (pdf) reports that only 10,000 young people participated in the Republican caucus, just 10% of all Republican caucus-goers. This too is a trend. In 2004, young voters broke in favor of John Kerry over President Bush 54 - 45%. In 2006, young voters chose Democratic candidates 60% - 38%, increasing a growing trend towards favoring progressive candidates.
He ends the diary by saying that young people are overwhelmingly Democratic and progressive, so this bodes well for us in the future. I really liked this diary because it gave credit to EVERYONE involved in this, and how movements are not created overnight but over years. Actually, for me, it kind of blows away the idea that Dean was a youth movement; after all, Kerry won the youth vote in Iowa. Everything is connected and starts with making first steps. John Kerry, after his electoral loss, talked about how he continued with his life "one foot in front of the other". I think these trendlines show that what he did in 2004 was not in vain; that the seeds were planted in 2004 that may bring about a Democratic majority which will have some longevity (if we don't screw it up).
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