This was taken from July 31th to August 3rd. On July 30th, the Boston Herald had 3 articles on the photo non-story - having covered it for the first time slightly earlier. (Mass's July 30 post to see what was out there -
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=273&topic_id=150925&mesg_id=150925) This could have hurt the initial sampling.
Also, there is likely some game playing by the angry HRC people - especially on the leadership question. Their response more likely follows their desire than their perception of reality. On terrorism and Iraq, it is Kerry's position that people are moving to. Neither Clinton articulated a detailed position on either that moved the issue forward. On the morgage crisis, between getting the affordable housing fund he fought years for and his and Smith's provision to give the states money to help re-negotiate rates, Kerry was one of the leaders on this. (On healthcare, we all know who did more to design S-CHIP. :) ) On the environment, other than Gore, there is no one more influencial than Kerry. On ethics, Kerry got the Cunningham bill passed - that sets a precedent that you can take away pensions - for those who complain that the reasons are too limited, it is easier to amend it to add reasons. The fact is that it is HRC who has in reality been a pretty average Senator, while Kerry has led. I don't remember a single major thing she introduced (other than her clone of Kid'd First), much less passed.
THese numbers are good in themselves and likely should improve as Kerry campaigns.
Playing with google, Tasini polled 17% - not far form EOR's numbers and she gave him no debates. Note how differently the NYT handled that race compared to its sister paper (BG) on Kerry's - Editorial
A Senate Primary in New York
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Published: September 3, 2006
The Democratic primary for senator in New York, which pits Hillary Clinton against an antiwar candidate, Jonathan Tasini, is not shaping up as a nail-biter. Mrs. Clinton has one of the best-known names on the planet, far more campaign money than she needs and an enormous lead in the polls. Mr. Tasini has a lot of spunk. What attention the race has been getting is due mainly to the proximity of Connecticut. If Democrats turned on Senator Joseph Lieberman because of his support for the war in Iraq, why shouldn’t they do the same to Mrs. Clinton, who also has refused to express regret for her vote to authorize the invasion?"
It then goes on to establish that HRC was not JL. In Kerry's case, he is not even HRC. As they state:
"All that said, she has hardly been a profile in courage. Almost every move Mrs. Clinton has made regarding Iraq reflected her desire to find — or create — a center position on every issue. The resolution she endorsed was extremely vague, more of a potential political embarrassment to the administration than a restriction on the military. Her speech in 2002 was classic triangulation, in which she posed two clear opposing positions and then placed herself in between. And her clash with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld last month, while dramatic, was late in the game, and an obvious attempt to make it clear to the restive antiwar voters that she was not an appropriate target."
Kerry led on Kerry/Feingold, the resolution they implicitly HRC for not supporting, at a point that doing so led to him being vilified and of course, Kerry had been the first to call for Rumsfeld's resignation back in late 2003 and again in spring 2004.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/03/opinion/03sun1.html?_r=1&oref=slogin