A must read essay by Andrew Bacevich on Obama & Afghanistan.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/foreign-policy/76091/non-believer

Read the whole thing, but here is the biting conclusion.



The McChrystal debacle is what did it for me. GET OUT OF AFGHANISTAN. When will John Kerry speak out that COIN is not working?

Going back to his recommendations last year, it sure seems (from this, the hearings and much of the reporting) as if the criteria he gave as needed for any chance of "success" has not been met to any reasonable degree. In terms of having a "government" to immediately provide "good enough governance" and Afghans to take over the security competently every article demonstrates that Marjah did not come close. Stories of elders who cooperated with us being executed and the Taliban easily re-emerging really suggest that as Kerry thought last year, the McChrystal plan was far too ambitious for Afghanistan.

Kandahar was supposed to be a bigger challenge. It sounds though as if Kerry seems to be planning hearings to be prepared for the decision point that comes this December to review how things are going. That might be when he will be compelled to publicly speak what he believes to be the truth. Though Kerry did warn about exactly what appears to have happened, he seems reluctant to speak out. If he is already certain that the policy has failed (and he has not clearly said that), he needs to remember what he said on April 22, 2006, 35 years after his famous Senate testimony, that he could not, as a Senator in good standing, stay quiet when he knows the policy is wrong - without waiting 5 months.

How close does this sound to the 1971 John Kerry,

"Or the commander-in-chief who sends young Americans to die for a cause in which he manifestly does not believe and yet refuses to forsake?"

Kerry needs to remain true to what he said then, even if Obama is a Democrat. He needs to realize that he owes the troops and himself more than he owes the Democratic party or Obama.

(One OT question - could the timing of the last ditch effort to get a climate bill be part of the hesitation? The only valid reason might be that his voice internally could carry more weight if he is not speaking externally. That however is a dilemma as Obama has always sided with the Hawks over Kerry.)

I am very interested in this hearing. It will take place at 2 pm and the first panel consists of Richard Holbrooke, current special envoy to Afghanistan and the second panel consists of Ryan Crocker, former Ambassador to Iraq.

COIN has no chance of working in Afghanistan. We do not have the people on the ground to carry this out. We have no troop allies in the region, in any significant numbers, and we have no real way to "clear, hold, build and pass on" the territories we take.

It was interesting to notice that COIN disciples, like David Kilcullen, have distanced themselves from Afghanistan and our policy there. Kilcullen was "attached" to McCrystal, but baled sometime last year and explicitly refused to associate himself with McCrystal BEFORE McCrystal imploded.

The hearing above was called because of Republican pressure from DeMint and the other 7 Dwarfs on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. They want a chance to grill Holbrooke and, through him, Obama on what is the policy in Afghanistan. This could be an interesting hearing and I am particularly interested to hear what the Chairman says in his opening remarks.

I think Sen. Kerry well knows that we have passed the point in Afghanistan in which we can actually do anything positive in that country. I think that Gen. Petraeus has been brought back on board to put some "lipstick on a pig" as regards the policy until we get out. The surge of troops did not work. For that, McCrystal will be blamed. In terms of the future, we will start hearing more about the $1 trillion in wealth of natural resources Afghanistan has and how that can be used to rebuild the country, under NGO's and third parties. I think we will start to hear about getting out. I don't see an alternative.

BTW, hi to all. I have been going through my own private hell of trying to figure out what happens next with placement on my Mom. She has basically been abandoned by any social service agencies because her income is $150 a month over the limits. My family is trying to figure out what to do now with a woman who expressly wants to die because her life has lost it's hope and meaning. That and working contract jobs is taking it's toll on my time this summer. My apologies to all for the distancing.

First of all, OMG, Tay -- that is terrible about your mom and the bureaucracy hell! I've been there and I'm so sorry. I know if there was/is a way to make it work you and your family would have thought of it, but I will keep hoping a way can be found. Please feel free to get in touch if you want to, we might be able to share info.

I really think you're on the right track with what will ultimately happen re Afghanistan. Not sure what happens to the Pakistan piece, any thoughts on that?

I saw that hearing listed and thought it would be fascinating, but had no idea it was called because of "DeMint and the other 7 Dwarfs" :rofl: It's on the 14th, right? Bastille Day. :-)

Sorry to hear about your Mom. I've been thinking about you these past months wondering how things were going. I hope that your contract jobs are at least filling in the gaps until the economy improves and a good solid permanent job comes up. :hug:

You really have so much to deal with at this time. Just know that all of us care about you during what has to be an incredibly difficult time.

Your comments sure look to be where this is going - and it will be interesting to hear what Kerry says in his opening statement. It has to be tough being a Democratic chair on this, an ally to Obama, and having his own history on this issue.

I just found out my cousin's son died on Sunday. Heroin OD. Such a friggin waste.

He was a lovely little red-headed boy in my memory. He tried so hard to rehab. He had a wife and daughter. He had parents who loved him and did everything they could to help him. It wasn't enough. The monster got him. He got out of rehab on Friday. He died in his parents home sometime early Sunday morning.

It has not been an especially good summer so far. Again, my apologies for being absent so much.

Just :hug:

:hug: x 10. Tough summer here as well, not as bad as yours seems to be, but still... Clenching my teeth, trying to do the best I can (which is not enough) and go from one day to another. What else can we do?

It has to be so hard for your cousin's family and for his wife and daughter.

I have a niece, a beautiful, intelligent girl - now 30, who has been on and off drugs including heroin since she was 12. She has been clean for 2 years now and we are hoping for the best. It is hard to again really wholeheartedly trust that she could possibly move beyond this as she has so often been pulled back before - though she clearly tried not to be. She is so earnest in wanting that to be the case. In spite of many interventions and strong support from her mom and her grandparents, this really is as you say a monster. It is also sad to think of all that is stolen from them. The promise of any young kid is so great and it is so easy to take for granted each child growing and maturing in so many ways. For years, her mom, my youngest sister, had such an intense fear every time the phone rang at night that we all knew not to call her past about 9 pm.

Beyond the tragedy itself, this really has to be horrible on top of everything else.

:grouphug: Condolences and best wishes to you and your family.

Sorry for your loss, Tay.

With taking the risk of talking too much about this issue which is still raw for you, Tay, I just think the only way to avoid these kinds of tragedies is for people to realize that they can never, ever, ever try these drugs, even once. Same with meth, cocaine, etc. Because once that "monkey" is on a person's back, statistics show it is extremely difficult to get it off. That's why I will cut Nancy Reagan a bit of slack: her "Just Say No" campaign did work for at least one person: me. I took her message to heart, and hope to God my kids will do the same.

sorry to hear about the tragic news. My heart goes out to you, your mom and family for all you've had to endure.

:hug:

...family in my prayers. :hug:

but your bunch seems large enough to require a semi to carry around.
Best wishes to you and your family (and especially for your mom's health care issues), and fervent hope for easier times ahead! :hug:

You've had a really tough year already, and then this happens. It seems like things can't get any worse, and they do. It also seems like you can't take anymore hurt and awful things happening, but they do, and you find that you actually ARE strong enough, even after being hit over and over again. I usually don't tell people that I know how they feel, but I really do know how you feel, Tay. :hug:

Kerry SFRC releases Vietnam-era papers.

and Kerry likely could add the weirdness of seeing the words from then while being perhaps in the same role they were then. I wonder if releasing this now has any significance. It has to be so weird for Kerry having been in so many different roles on war and peace.

similar to AP story (but worth reading--see url for text)
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/07/15/in_vietnam_era_files_parallels_of_anxiety/

Kerry says Afghanistan strategy is off course
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/07/15/kerry_says_afghanistan_strategy_is_off_course/
see below:

Did anyone else here? I tried to watch the late evening re-air, saw Kerry's opening statement (though I missed the beginning, also Lugar's (very good, I thought, Lugar is always worth listening to on FP even when I do not agree, though I often do), and some of Holbrooke's. And then I drifted into sleep :blush:. I was not completely "there" even during the opening statements. Anyway, the point is that I would be really interested to hear what people here think. I also woke up (kind of :-)) for a few moments in time to hear Corker say that he has an average intelligence and therefore he does not understand what's going on. Incidentally, I think Corker was being too modest, though I still hate seeing him sitting next to Lugar instead of Hagel.

I really want to see the whole thing -- it was fascinating and I thought Holbrooke was an excellent witness. I read JK's opening statement but haven't yet had a chance to see it delivered. I didn't know it was aired on cspan and forgot to check. :-( Looks like I just missed a reair on cspan 3! Hope maybe they'll repeat it this weekend.

As a result I am re-watching it now. Kerry referred to the progress as mixed, and then spoke of all the problems with governance - and listed NO positives. He specifically said that this is the time to reassess the strategy. He referred to his criteria from last fall - and spoke of how there have been changes - not for the positive since last year. Given that he wary of the path Obama took last year then - these comments are very significant.

The committee will put out a report on corruption in Afghanistan.

His conclusion is extremely strong - and it sounded stronger hearing it versus reading it. Lugar's statement as you mention was also strong and he had warnings as well. Saying there is "no definition of success" is pretty strong - especially when he then detailed the extremes of what the policy seems to be at different times.

After those statements, I think my brain went to sleep - I was listening, but my brain was unengaged. (which is why I am rewatching it.) Holbrooke praised the SFRC as the most i mportant committee on National security. He praised Kerry's role with Karzai and Kerry/Lugar/Berman.

Spoke of the black cloud that the elections had for the first year he was in Afghanistan. Holbrooke introduced his team as a devise to show that they are involving many government agencies. He mentioned that this war (unlike Vietnam) affects our national security. He spoke of new program led by Japan and Britain to bring in moderate elements of the Taliban. He spoke of Hillary planning to attend the Kabul conference (http://www.dnaindia.com/world/report_hillary-clinton-to-visit-pakistan-for-security-talks-richard-holbrooke_1410041 ) He says he will read the SFRC report on corruption - and they share his concern.

Spoke of work to improve relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan - he denied reports of secret deals. He said that he could not overstate importance of K/L/B and with Kerry's personal role in dealing with initial negative response.

Questions:
Kerry - on Majah - asked hurdles and accomplishments - answer impediments extraordinary - hard to get qualified Afghans after 30 years of war. Diaspora not there because it is dangerous and there is enormous corruption, immense poverty. For 7 years we trained police with 88% illiteracy. Now a mandatory issue. Majah - targeted assassination - increased American presence. Best civilian/military support that he has seen. The elders said they were glad that US back (referring to Ike/JFK time)

Kerry If Marjah hard, will Kandahar be easier - Holbrooke - Yes
Kerry spoke of no assinations before we were in Marjah and they exist now in Khandhar answer: says Khandhar not Fallujah. He is aware of Kerry's perception and it has value, but he didn't want to speak of it before meeting with Petraeous. He said he recognizes that it is a national security issue for Pakistan in having an unfixed border. Mullen going there as well. (Kerry praised Holbroke for the attempts to bring in the civilians. Spoke of complication of India/Pakistan/Afghanistan - possible avenue of non -military solution.

(Over all - Kerry was even stronger in his questions, than he was in his opening statement) on the possibility that the policy is not right.

Answers to Lugar -
- Said re-integration of Taliban key thing in Kabul conference
- Said they are not waiting till December to re-evaluate
- said looking continually on the timelines for withdrawing
- continued economic/development funding and training of Afghan military after we leave. Afghanistan can not go forward without help and getting police and millitary is key. referenced "lesson of history" of leaving in 1989 - which led directly to 911.

Feingold
- defended Eikenberry, who told the truth of what happened on the ground
- flexible time table
Answers: not surprised at questions. He respectfully things a date certain makes him wary - Feingold pushes back that he said FLEXIBLE - said he wants OBAMA to state a vision with some time frame. Holbrooke then speaks of Afghanistan as remote, landlocked etc - doesn't think they can set end date. No endless, unlimited Vietnam like war -- it's about our national security ... time square bombing ... He is completely filibustering on this. Asked how peace jurka (sp?) - Holbrooke - it hasn't happened yet.

Outside the hearing, there is some sign that the SFRC is not completely in tune with the Department of State. They blocked Crocker coming at the same time - for the pretty lame reason that Holbrooke appearing with Crocker could undermine Eikenberry. Having two experts (and Crocker is a one) together has an interaction term that could have been interesting.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/checkpoint-washington/2010/07/why_crocker_is_a_no-show_at_se.html

Corker
Spoke of letter to Kerry (who he said might have had hearings anyway) on wanting answer to their question of what the detailed plans are of what they are doing and how the withdrawal date - he said no answers. Mentioned earlier report that he will re-enter into the record. Spoke of work on agriculture/create a justice system/ counter narcotics - where they stopped eradication because it was sending people into Taliban/electricity. All to support COIN. Promised to give details privately.

Says that he hears no clarity - and he thinks the countries in that area don't know our policy. He says we are sending a lot of mixed signals. Asks Kerry call in other witnesses because Hollbrooke has not given enough a plan. Says that he can't answer why we are in Afghanistan. Hollbroke - 911, AQ, threat to national security. Goal to dismantle and defeat AQ. Need to degrade Taliban to do this - Afghan government after 30 years of war can't do this.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/14/AR2010071406007.html

(I don't agree that Corker was milder - if anything he was more frustrated.

solution possibly being resolving the underlying India/Pakistan/Afghanistan situation. (don't know why they make it sound like an interview - but I'm pretty sure this is verbatim what he said in the hearing.


http://sify.com/news/resolving-complicated-india-pak-afghan-issue-key-to-regional-stability-kerry-news-international-khqnkdaghai.html

I was wondering what happened to Crocker. Does he have any official position now? Not that I know of... then what say did the State Department have in the matter? Our boy will not come if that other boy is there? Nasty headache so maybe I do not compute right, but I just don't see it.

He spoke of writing letters to parents and it bothering him that he did understand the policy. He clearly called Holbrooke out as "a waste of time". In fact, Holbrooke alternated from being pretty responsive on some questions - that he was reasonably comfortable with - including the tough ones from Kerry. He was down right evasive and intentionally not open with Feingold - he seemed to deliberately misinterpret the question - and when corrected - returned later to his mispercention at the end.

Kerry rescheduled Crocker per the article. Kerry had to leave early for a Start meeting - that I would guess was scheduled by the State department. (That is conjecture.) Holbrooke gave Kerry personally a huge amount of praise for his personal effort with Karzai and also for his success in tamping down some of the initial anger in Pakistan over K/L/B and he praised K and L for K/L/B which he described as incredibly valuable (? not sure of word) It was very easy to see that he respected Kerry and Lugar - and not so much the rest of the committee. For a diplomat, that is kind of startling.