This is a very interesting story - so far Syria has yet to do anything to give any confidence that they will decide to change. However, the action in Libya might cause Assad to reform, rather than face sanctions and possibly more. This is the real test of whether the line of communication Kerry opened will be useful. Things would not have been better without it - so all it was a low cost (just Kerry's time) gamble. Even if the speech is very promising - as JK says they will need to test it.
DURING THE past two years Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass) has emerged as the Obama administration’s key interlocutor with Syrian president Bashar al Assad. Now he is putting the dictator on notice that he has reached a make-or-break moment in his relationship with the United States.
Kerry has promoted the view that “engagement” between the United States and Syria could change the orientation of a regime that has been Iran’s closest Arab ally, and a weapons supplier to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. As recently as last November, Kerry said after meeting Assad: “I remain absolutely convinced that there is an opportunity to have a different relationship with Syria.”
<snip>
n an interview Tuesday, Kerry told me that he had contacted senior Syrian officials to demand an end to the killing. “I delivered as strong a message as I can that they have to avoid violence and listen to their people and respond,” he said. “Obviously the way the government has behaved is unacceptable. Sixty-one people killed is terrible, its abhorrant behavior.”
Now Kerry, like people across Syria, is waiting to hear a speech that Assad’s aides have promised he will deliver outlining a political liberalization in response to demonstrations across the country. “It’s a significant test,” Kerry said. “It’s a seminal moment.” The senator has heard promises of reform from the regime in the past. “I’ve always said, ‘put it to the test, don’t take it at face value,’ Kerry said. “You have to find out what people are prepared to do.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/john_kerrys_message_to_syria/2011/03/04/AFZm9rwB_blog.html?wprss=rss_homepageAlso in the WP, David Ignatius wrote that Assad is trying to survive by leading his own "coup"
Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad is attempting a new survival tactic in this Arab Spring — organizing what looks like a coup against his own government. Over the next 48 hours, it should become clear whether he has the political muscle and dexterity to pull off this unusual maneuver.
Assad dismissed his cabinet ministers Tuesday, and his backers encouraged massive public demonstrations of support in Damascus, Aleppo and other Syrian cities. Photographs showed huge crowds; a Syrian source claimed that 2 million Assad supporters had assembled in Damascus and 1 million in Aleppo, but it’s impossible to confirm these numbers.
In their effort to turn the tables on protesters, the regime used Facebook as one of its tools to summon demonstrators. The social networking site was officially approved in Syria less than two month ago.
Assad has deliberately avoided making any public pronouncements so far, leaving those mostly to his pro-reform adviser Bouthaina Shaaban. She said last week that Assad would repeal Syria’s emergency law, end the Baath Party’s monopoly on power, reform the judiciary and combat the corruption that is endemic in Syria.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/2011/03/04/AFMavKxB_blog.htmlInteresting times these are.
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