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whometense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 04:43 PM
Original message
Boston Globe editorial on primaries reshuffle
They hit on some majot points that I haven't heard addressed much (see bold). What do you all think?

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2005/12/04/primary_concerns/

Primary concerns

December 4, 2005

DEMOCRATS JOSTLING for advantage as they seek to remake the presidential primary calendar appear headed for changes that will cause their party more harm than good while they only exacerbate the system's worst fault.

As it stands, a 40-member commission named by the Democratic National Committee is likely to recommend next Saturday that as many as four states be added to the primary calendar -- in addition to Iowa and New Hampshire -- to hold presidential primaries or caucuses before the approved ''window" for delegate selection events. The window is already slated to open far too early -- Feb. 5, 2008 -- which means the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary would likely occur in January -- unless the efforts of the ''reformers" push them all the way into 2007.

The stated reasons for the change are essentially two: to add diversity, since Iowa and New Hampshire have small minority populations, and to help build the party in states that have not had much impact on the presidential nominating process.

Unstated reasons include jealousy from states that envy the attention paid Iowa and New Hampshire every four years and sour grapes from the camps of candidates who did poorly in those states in the past.


The problem with the diversity argument is there is no evidence that a louder early voice for minorities would have produced better nominees -- or indeed different nominees -- from those that emerged in recent years. Still, if the Democrats want to add a small Southern state with a large black population, and perhaps a small Southwestern state with a large Hispanic population, after New Hampshire and before the window, that might be a worthwhile experiment.

But the party-building argument falls flat. Adding states before the window would encourage other states to run their contests as early as possible. This would increase the ''front-loading" of the calendar that produces a nominee within a few short weeks after the first votes are cast. The other states are thereby marginalized, the opposite of what this reform movement says it wants.

In addition, a jammed-up calendar would work to the advantage of well-known and well-financed candidates, while lesser-known candidates -- such as Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter -- would have difficulty breaking through.

It is not too late for the Democratic National Committee to focus on the serious problem of front-loading, possibly by limiting the number of delegates that could be chosen on any date. Such an effort would be far better than undercutting the role of Iowa and New Hampshire, which have proven their effectiveness at compelling real person-to-person retail politics before the candidates become totally isolated and the campaigns hermetically sealed.
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ray of light Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 05:00 PM
Response to Original message
1. I don't think that many people pay attention to the primaries
Edited on Sun Dec-04-05 05:19 PM by ray of light
If you want to know the truth.


What I find a bother is the MEDIA's complicit reporting of the primaries--and I fear they will work to get their choice (Clinton) selected.

****question*****

how do you quote in boxes like that?
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TheDonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 05:16 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. That's the biggest thing
Only a quarter of voters even bother to vote during the primaries. No one is holding a gun to anyones head saying "YOU MUST vote for the winner of Iowa!"

Most people just don't take primaries seriously other than the party loyalists.
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ginnyinWI Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. to quote in boxes,
When you hit "reply" there is a link at the top that says "HTML lookup table". Look for the one that begins,"[div class..." ;)
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ray of light Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 06:26 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. I don't get it because her quote came from a magazine article.
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whometense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 05:39 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. I actually think
the media are a much, much bigger problem here than the dates and order of the primaries. They do so much mindless horserace reporting and so little content reporting that it's no wonder people who are not rabid followers of politics don't bother to vote. ("What's the differnce?" Shrug.)

Well, there's plenty of difference - and if they bothered to honestly discuss the differences maybe people might start to think their vote matters.

I do agree with the comment in the editorial about the hidden agendas, though, and I don't see how you honestly discuss this issue without confronting the fact that everyone has his or her own reasons for wanting the primary setup the way it is.
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ray of light Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 06:25 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. NonnyO, a poster at the DCP, had a great analogy for the media
that she posted there. (I wonder if she saved her post!)

Anyway, her post spoke of the media as having both an agenda and the 'suvivor' type show mentality.

They need to set it up for battles and for one to win and one to lose. (Of course in my view, they always set up favs as well!)
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TayTay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 08:16 PM
Response to Original message
7. They are 'front-loading' the primaries again.
As the Editorial suggests, they will increase the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire, not lessen them. The more the states bunch up, the more the initial contests matter and the rest don't have breathing room to consider the candidates.

C-Span still has a video up from last winter's DNC meeting at which this was explained: rtsp://video.c-span.org/project/c04/c04031405_dnc.rm (Just listen to the first 45 minutes, this woman explains it all.)

The current primary system evolved as a means of taking the nomination out of the hands of party bosses and placing back in with the people. (The initial movement to do this started in 1968 but didn't really result in change until 1976, when Jimmy Carter won Iowa, then New Hampshire. He was such a long-shot outsider that he never would have been nominated under the old rules.)

However, everyone now wants to go first. And the DNC can't directly set primaries in some of the states. (It depends on whether or not it's a state-held primary, like New Hampshire or a DNC run one, like, I think the District of Columbia.) If states can't go first, they want to go as close to the first as possible. Therein lies the problem. Then we get what happened in 2004. Okay, that worked out for our guy, but it might have worked out even better for him if the battle had gone on longer. There is something to be said for a longer primary season in which the Democrats steal the spotlight, force a discussion of their issues and their dissent with the present Admin and their candidate gets tougher and more seasoned nationally by having to answer more tough questions against an vigorous opponent. In 2004, we had a 5-6 month layover from when Kerry effectively won the nomination and the convention. As the convention will be 3 weeks later in 2008, this could be even worse.

Ironically, if the DNC wants to lessen the power of Iowa and NH, then they should set a two week window between them and everyone else. This two week re-evaluation period is plenty of time for Dems to organize a 'stop the front-runner' campaign and have someone start to get some momentum. Bunching up the primaries makes NH & Iowa more powerful and decisive, not less.

If the schedule gets changed to 4-6 primaries or caucuses in January 2008, then the candidates with the most name-recognition and money will be able to hold a big big advantage over lesser known and possibly otherwise well-qualified candidates. I don't think the reformers have been thinking out the end results of their reforms very well at all.
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whometense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. I watched some of that
meeting, and it seemed to me then that everyone there had his/her own agenda and was trying to push the group towards a resolution that would satisfy their own ends. And yet, as you say, no one seemed to be thinking through the impact of any of the proposed changes. I'm certainly no political strategist, but even I could see that.

I think you may be right, and wouldn't that be an ironic outcome? To be perfectly honest, viewing the meeting through the eyes of a Kerry supporter, there were a lot of assumptions being made about NH and Iowa that may or may not be true next go-round. The people of both states know Edwards and Kerry better than the other contenders, but what will that mean in 2008? I don't think anyone can assume the outcome is a foregone conclusion in either place.
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TayTay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 10:32 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Absolutely not. 2008 is going to be a humdinger
There are open slots without clear favorites in both parties. The media attention will be split and it will be harder to get coverage. I think it's going to be a very serious election and I think that whatever is perceived as common wisdom now, won't be then. (I anticipate odd things happening.)

But, with the changes in place, I also anticipate a nominee by March. Sigh! This is good and bad.
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Dec-04-05 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
10. They seem to have very short memories
Although NH and Iowa, probably made Kerry the likely candidate last year, it's unusual for one candidate to win both and their have been people who lost both and became the nominee. Bill Clinton lost Iowa and declared himself the "comeback kid" after coming in third in NH in 1992. He then won big on the South "heavy" Super Tuesday,

In 2004, Gephardt bowed out after coming in fourth in Iowa. Liebrman should have bowed out after coming in fifth in both, but he became irrelevant anyway. Clark, who was only in NH, made a lot of gaffes and seemed not quite ready for prime time. Dean imploded in Iowa - spending a huge amount of money and coming in third. He never regained his balance in NH.

Kerry could still have lost if either of the Southern candidates would have done super well on super Tuesday. When Kerry did the best on that day, it became very hard to stop him. My guess is that many people saw that Kerry was head and shoulders better than Edwards and Clark.

From my POV, this scedule already favors Southern candidates - as any candidate has to get past super Tuesday.
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