Situation VERY bad in Iraq - 1300 dead since Shrine bombing

I had hoped that perhaps civil war could be thwarted; however, I am no longer so optimisitc. The facts on the ground must supercede a post by a 20 year old college kid (http://ejectiraqikkk.blogspot.com/) who railed against pessimism insisting there would be no civil war. I feel terrible for kids like him who don't want to hate, and simply want to live in a united, peaceful, democratic Iraq. Unfortunately, there are enough among the masses who would rather have revenge and war to drown out his innocent and sane voice.

This post from Zeyad today is truly disheartening:

http://www.healingiraq.blogspot.com/



Although Zeyad is specifically railing against al-Sadr (who I may remind you all, his militia are the ones who killed Casey Sheehan, Cindy's son), I can't help but be struck by the fact that Zeyad is a secular Sunni who is non-stop bashing Shi'ites. This is very disturbing because he is the last person you would think would fall under the spell of sectarian hatred, yet his posts speak for themselves . . .

Meanwhile, Iraq the Model (the sunny blog), has changed the subject to Saddam Hussein's trial. He has learned well from his RW readers, that when things are very bad, distract by changing the subject (I do like Omar, but come on -- there is ongoing violence, and you choose to talk about Saddam Hussein?). But at the beginning of the post, the details of his life tell you it's certainly not like ours:

http://www.iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/



Yes, in Boston, you have snow days; in Iraq, there are bomb days.

Now how this post relates to Kerry -- sorry, a lot of his ideas, although good at the time, are simply out of date. For example, last spring ('05), he talked about using militias to secure neighborhoods. NO, NO, NO!!! Not going to work. He talked about putting Americans in a back garrison position (just this week), and have the Iraqis do the security work. Well, reading Zeyad's post, well . . . sometimes the Iraqi security forces are part of the problem, not the solution. What the HELL are we going to do????? Obviously, the Iraqis distrust the Americans, too, so I'm not suggesting we go backwards here, but from what I read, the Americans DID step up patrols last weekend to curb some violence. And now, we have to face facts that we have a Sunni insurgency problem AND we have a Shi'ite militia problem, sometimes engaging in death squad patrols under the interior ministry. In a nutshell: American patrols - bad. Iraqi forces patrols - also bad. I'm not sure this situation can be rectified . . . .

so I cant judge whether these guys are right or not (who are they, anyway?).

It is probable that using the militia would have been the things to do around the period where Kerry proposed it, but it may be too late for that at this point.

However, I more and more hope that they pull the troops out of there (either in garrison or out of country). There is absolutely no reason why the US troops should be in-between. The fact that * wants the troops to stay does not make it right, on the contrary. Actually, the other day, Kerry was proposing that the troops would go in garrison out of Iraq (Kuwait for example).

Nothing is perfect, but there is a big chance that the Iraqis may be better off solving their problems without US troops over there, but with the help of the Arab League or the UN.

First, Zeyad was happy when the U.S. came to oust Saddam Hussein, and a year ago he was very optimistic about Iraq and was especially heartened by the elections in January. If you have the time, you can check the archives on his blog to see this. He also has been vetted by the New York Times. He was featured in their Times Select section in January along with 3 other Iraqi bloggers. He certainly had become disillusioned by the American occupation after American troops threw his cousin in the river, and he drowned. But I find his posts to be credible, since I've read him on and off for over a year.

The death squad story was all over the MSM two weeks ago. Stories about the Iraqi forces are mixed in the MSM as well, where you may have some squads who are good where there are others which are very sectarian, so I don't think Zeyad's suspicion of Iraqi forces is earth shattering. But what I felt was the REAL story from Zeyad was how far he has gone in criticizing Shi'ites from a year ago. To be fair, he is not criticizing ALL Shi'ites, but as a moderate Sunni he feels threatened and had moments last week, where he was very afraid that they were going to come get him.

I'm not sure if this helps, but I do think that it is accurate to say that the "let's just train Iraqis" theme will no longer reassure me, even if said by John Kerry. As Tay Tay put down below, the point of not return has either come or is fast approaching.

I have read every word you have posted. Sometimes, there are no comments, the posts say it all. But I do want you to know that I have been reading these and trying to absorb as much as I can from them.

Thanks!

I actually feel a little like I'm breaking the rules talking about this in the JK forum, but I want to talk to YOU GUYS about this, not necessarily the entire DU population. Plus, I figure since JK is such a big FP person, I feel like talking about foreign affairs is ALWAYS Kerry related. But if I'm not supposed to do this, just let me know.

Anyway, you inspired me, Tay, so I went back over to dKos and added to my first post links to the Iraqi bloggers. Who knows? Maybe JK or perhaps his staff will take a peruse. At the least, other Kossaks can take a look. I also think that it's a little different perspective than just what is happening to our troops. Last I looked, Iraqis are human beings, too, and their deaths are just as devastating as ours.

It is a devastating thing to think about. When I read Riverbend, I just have nothing more to say. My Lord, those poor, poor people. In any war, it seems to me, there are partisans who are actively involved in the fighting. Then there are the vast majority of the people who are in harm's way and who get hurt. I think the majority of the Iraqi people are probably like the majority of the American people: they want to be safe, they want to send their kids to school, they want to have a normal life. These are the innocent bystanders who are suffering the most.

Again, thanks for posting this. It definitely belongs in here. (As you wrote, it's FP and that is completely relevent to this group.)

in which all our options are not just bad but terrible and the cost to the Iraqi people is catastrophic. I think this is where we are. (I felt it the minute the story of the Mosque in Samarra came across the wires last week.)

Sen. Kerry knows this. See the transcript from the Imus show last Dec.



The Bush Admin didn't listen to anyone and tried to paint anyone who disagreed with them as nuts who were unpatriotic and defeatist. Now all the chickens have come home to roost.

I agree, this is the end of the 'make or break period.' It's broken. We cannot fix it, we can only be present while Iraq incinerates itself in civil war. Sigh! We need to get US troops out of there.

I agree with your summary - I agree with you that Kerry and others may have to publicly admit that the window of opportunity is gone. He has desperately pushed the administration to avoid the situation we are likely now in. The problem is there is no paltable solution right now.

Bush's "solution" will likely lead to civil war, with our soldiers trying to stop violence by both sides. This is far worse than Vietnam - where the corrupt government we were backing had little support and did little to help us. As the civil war heats up, reconciliation becomes less likely. The "political solution" Kerry (and others)have wanted the administration and Iraqi leaders to pursue has to be the solution becomes more remote. If it becomes so remote a possibility, the question is whether we reach the vN situation where the real sacrifices made by the soldiers could lead to no positive outcome that anyone could say were worth it.

The most positive thing last year, was the Arab league (largely Sunni)suggesting a solution where they attempted to leverage their dominance in the regin to get some minority rights for the Sunnis. Their reasoning sounded comatible with Kerry's. They also wanted the US out within 2 years. In November, the articles spoke of them working on a more specific plan early this year - I wonder if they have.

The only way out might be if some agreement is reached by the Arab League (representing the Sunni Arab world) and Iran and they put their huge difference aside and push to restrain their co-religionists. The one thing they would both likely agree on is that the US needs to leave. Both Iran and the Arab League could be hurt by Iraq in flames. (Iran will have gained vs 2001, as the resultant Iraq government will be more pro-Iran than Hussain's Iraq which at least in the 80s was anti-Iran). This at a different level is a "political solution".

In a civil war, an outside army that can't speak Arabic, would be useless other than in maintaining curfews or maintaining peopleless areas as buffers between the two groups - which gets back to the free fire zones in Vietnam. What do you do with places like Baghdad, where both exist. The garison idea makes more sense, but it's hard to see what missions (out of the garrisons) they could do.

It is a political solution without the US. We have to get out and allow other parties with credibility to take over.

For the record, I think Sen. Kerry was right in his approach. But, of course, the Bushies didn't listen to him or anyone else who actually knew what they were talking about. (That makes me feel worse. We had those 'voices of reason' and this Admin deliberately didn't listen becuase they believed their own bullshit and refused to listen to alternative and sane views.)

All wars end with either total capitualtion and defeat or with some sort of political arrangement. Usually that happens after terrible carnage and suffering. I increasingly think it will happen without 'us' directly involved.

This may be the first speck of good news.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2145807

Got this via HuffPost:

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/03/01/fox-media-civil-war/



Better throw the Iraqi bloggers (including RW favorites like Iraq the Model) in the mix for this great conspiracy. Unbelievable (or maybe VERY believable for Fox)! And what is sad is the people who watch Fox and believe everything told to them.

And, by the way, ThinkProgress repeated about the same figure as from Zeyad -- 1500 dead.