McCain rises and Obama plunges in series of 9 catastrophic polls for Dems

the comments are predictable--what a hoot



Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject McCain rises and Obama plunges in series of 9 catastrophic polls for Dems
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5165149#5165149
5165149, McCain rises and Obama plunges in series of 9 catastrophic polls for Dems
Posted by Karmadillo on Wed Mar-19-08 08:42 PM

http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/03/mccain-rises-and-obama-plunges-in.html

Rarely have I seen this consistent a turnaround in general election polls: In 9 general election polls released today, McCain is on the rise and Obama declines due to his (1) continued weakness among registered Democrats and (2) the departure of many cross-over Republicans and independents who had come to support his candidacy. Also, Clinton's position generally remains stable, suggesting that it is Obama who is weakening more than McCain who is improving.

Obama's plunge looks particularly vertiginous because of how high he was riding in the last two weeks of February, looking competitive in every poll and beating McCain in many reddish states; so some of the trendlines have to be taken with a grain of salt, since they follow an Obama progression. Also, it looked likely that Obama would not keep up his strong levels of support among registered Republicans and independents once the general election campaign began, the GOP nominee was chosen and the two sides became polarized. But the consistency of the numbers suggests that March belongs to McCain.

All the polls I am about to cite follow PPP's Florida release yesterday that showed McCain up 11% in Florida against Obama. Today, two polls from Ohio show the Arizona Senator strengthened in the red state that until recently looked the most promising for Democrats:

SUSA shows Clinton leading McCain 50% to 44%, but McCain leads Obama 50% to 43%. Compared to the previous SUSA poll from late February, that's a 4% Clinton drop and a 17% Obama plunge.

In a pattern that we will find in most of these polls, Obama is weak among registered Democrats (he gets 66% to Clinton's 80%) and Clinton is weak among blacks (64%). But the shift in numbers is due to independents deserting Obama (down from 60% to 45%) and Republicans moving home (the margin is 12% better for McCain).

PPP's poll also brings good news for McCain, who trails Clinton only 45% to 44% but is ahead of Obama 49% to 41%.

Here again, Clinton is very weak among blacks (47%) and Obama among registered Democrats (60%).

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