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The high stock market is due to the dollar's devaluation

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Chimichurri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-12-06 08:14 AM
Original message
The high stock market is due to the dollar's devaluation
I heard Thom Hartmann on The Majority Report talking about how the global markets are reporting the U.S. economy has been flooded with as much as 2 trillion newly printed dollars which has devalued the dollar up to around 50% causing the markets to post false gains. The market reaching 11,000+ should be assessed at the dollars accurate value making the stock market's true value at round half that (6,000 pts or so)

This is also why all other currency has gained value against the dollar. The dollar is the standard by which all other currency is valued.

Any economic wonks out there that can validate this in laymen's terms? If I understood him correctly, this explains why so many people are having a tough time making ends meet while the think tanks tought a vibrant economy.
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xray s Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-12-06 08:18 AM
Response to Original message
1. I thought all those new $10's and $20's looked like play money
Now I know it is
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-12-06 08:19 AM
Response to Original message
2. The market is not that high
The market has essentially been flat for the entire Bush presidency... any gains in actual numbers have been wiped out by rising inflation.
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no_hypocrisy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-12-06 08:20 AM
Response to Original message
3. So even though it will take $1.50 to buy something valued at $1.00, my
employer will give me $1.00 in salary, with no raise, and I have to come up with the extra 50 cents? Is that what the diluted dollar means in real terms?
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sendero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-12-06 08:24 AM
Response to Original message
4. True enough..
... but that said, the environment we are in makes it advantageous to own anything but greenbacks. If stocks rise with the currency valuation, at least you've maintained your purchasing power.

I'm not a fan of stock because I don't believe wall street is fair to the average investor but it's probably not a good idea to have nothing but cash either.
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exlrrp Donating Member (598 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-12-06 08:29 AM
Response to Original message
5. Hint: hedge with the yuan
I bought euros early inthe bush administration and my instinct did not lead me astray.
Although the yuan is more manipulated than the dollar, scoring a bunch of them may be a good hedge for when the bottom falls out.
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-12-06 08:31 AM
Response to Original message
6. The relative value of currency
It is mistaken to presume the dollar is the same to
all currencies, this is a misperception. Currencies
are all relative to each other in a complex web of
interrelationships between lending rates, credit ratings,
macroeconomic balances, and politicial trends.

The dollar has devalued by 50% relative to gold, or you could
say the gold price has doubled. Or that the gold-value of the
stock market has halved. It does not mean that the dollar
suddenly buys half as much butter in the supermarket. Macro-movements
of dollar devaluation, is like the whole USA map sinking down a little
bit, the dollar being that whole map. The stock market is a place
on that map, and its relative movements are not really critical to
the greater picture. Rather the issue is with interest rates
across borders, and the likelihood of being paid returns.

In short, the dollar is gonna go down, and as it devalues, there
will be lots of baloney spouted about "why", or how it affects
the stock market. The way it affects the stock market, is that foreigners
who have converted their money in to dollars at one rate to invest,
will look at the returns of the investment minus the losses due to the falling
dollar... when those losses pass a critical horizon, foreign investors in
dollar assets will find better places to put their money. Then nobody
will finance the deficit, and the dollar will ahve to correct to a level
actually equal to the trade... (that collapse)

Its a huge question really, and i probably just made it worse.
:-)

pues
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-12-06 08:32 AM
Response to Original message
7. Watch the Adv/Dec line. This is a very targeted run-up in the market
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