an invasion would not be legal under international law.
Elizabeth Wilmhurst, a Foreign Office legal adviser, resigned in protest at the sudden about face of UK Attorney General Lord Goldsmith in respect of the legality of the war. According to her letter of resignation, the Foreign Office legal team had provided the advice that resolution 1441 was not sufficient to establish the legality of further military action in Iraq, and the Attorney General agreed with this, until suddenly changing his views immediately prior to the war.
In a paragraph censored by the UK government when her letter was released under the UK FOIA, she said:
"My views accord with the advice that has been given consistently in this Office (the foreign office legal team office) before and after the adoption of UN security council resolution 1441 and with what the Attorney General gave us to understand was his view prior to his letter of 7 March. (The view expressed in that letter has of course changed again into what is now the official line.)"
(See Channel 4's story on her resignation letter at
http://www.channel4.com/news/2005/03/week_4/23_letter.html ).
Even the final advice of Lord Goldsmith, though it hesitantly expressed the view that "a reasonable case" for the legality of the war could be made, was equivocal in the extreme. It identifies three possible bases which could provide a legal framework for the use of force:
1) self defence
2) averting humanitarian catastrophe
3) authorisation by the UN Security Council.
Option 1, he dismissed with the words: "In my opinion, there must be some degree of imminence. I am aware that the USA has been arguing for recognition of a broad doctrine of a right to use force to pre-empt danger in the future (...) this is not a doctrine which, in my opinion, exists or is recognised in international law".
Strike one.
Option 2 fell to the judgement that "I know of no reason why [avverting humanitarian catastrophe] would be an appropriate basis for action in present circumstances.
Strike two.
So the task of Goldsmith's argument lies in showing that UN SC resolution 1441 provides authorisation for the use of force. The claim that it does rests on two further claims: that the revival of force authorized by previous UN resolutions, where that authorization had been suspended by a further resolution, without requiring a further explicit resolution to "un-suspend" the authorization, is a sound principle; and that given the soundness of the principle, the text of UN SCR 1441 was sufficient to warrent such a revival.
Goldsmith then spends about 9 closely argued pages making the tenuous case that both these further claims hold water (and it is here, I imagine, where his views diverged with the legal advice given to him by the Foreign Office, and with his previous views that Wilmhurst refers to.) He acknowledges that both the "revival principle" and the sufficiency of 1441 are highly contestable, and doesn't go much further than stating that a "reasonable case" can be made on these grounds. As I understand it, this is lawyers' jargon meaning that the argument might get you
into court, but in no way guarantees a win.
I won't examine his arguments in detail, but it's worth quoting a paragraph towards the end of his advice:
... the argument that resolution 1441 alone has revived the authorization to use force in resolution 678 will only be sustainable if there are strong factual grounds for concluding that Iraq has failed to take the final opportunity. In other words, we would need to be able to demonstrate hard evidence of non-compliance and non-cooperation. Given the structure of the resolution as a whole, the views of UNMOVIC and the IAEA will be highly significant in this respect. In the light of the latest reporting by UNMOVIC you will need to consider extremely carefully whether the evidence of non-cooperation and non-compliance is sufficiently compelling to justify the conclusion that Iraq has failed to take its final opportunity.
So, even given his admittedly dodgy strategy of reliance on the "revival principle" and some fairly
bogus"nuanced" interpretations of the details of the language of 1441, the entire legal structure falls down if it can't be shown that Iraq has failed to take its "final opportunity". In fact, all the evidence shows that Iraq was doing it's darndest to co-operate with the UN inspectors in the run-up to the invasion, making the invasion illegal even by the lights of the official legal advice given to Blair.
The full text of the advice is available at:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1472115,00.html as a PDF file linked just under the headline of that story.