Private House Democrats Memo: “Managing Expectations.”

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2006/05/31/minding-the-map-and-money/

Minding the Map and Money

“Managing Expectations.” That’s the subject line for a private memo House Democrats’ campaign committee chairman, Chicago’s Rep. Rahm Emanuel, circulated to his colleagues as they headed home for the Memorial Day recess week. With President Bush and the Republican-led Congress dragging in the polls, and Democrats growing cautiously optimistic about their chances of recapturing the House majority after 12 years, Emanuel noted that the Democrats “are headed into structural impediments (e.g. map and money).”

On the national map, he noted that Republicans’ gerrymandering of House districts after the 2000 census has so limited the number of competitive seats that the nonpartisan Cook Political Report lists 35 such seats this year compared to 100 in 1994 — the year Republicans ousted the Democrats’ majority. Democrats need a net gain of 15 to have a majority of the 435-member House. As for money, Emanuel said the Republican National Committee has a 4-to-1 cash advantage over the Democratic National Committee; Emanuel and his Senate campaigns counterpart, New York Sen. Charles Schumer, have sparred with DNC Chairman Howard Dean for funds since the RNC has promised millions for Republican House candidates.

But Emanuel had good news on the money front, as well. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee “has the resources necessary to compete and Democratic candidates are in a better position financially than ever before,” he wrote. The DCCC was nearly equal to House Republicans’ committee in the most recent campaign-finance reports, with about $23 million. Candidates’ most recent reports show that 40 Democrats challenging Republican incumbents have at least $250,000 on hand — 10 times the number of two years ago.

Citing several of the Democratic challengers by name, he claimed, “Democrats are succeeding in framing and nationalizing the debate this election cycle as a campaign for change.” And citing last week’s primary results in Indiana and Pennsylvania, Emanuel concluded, “it is clear that Democrats are energized and Republicans are demoralized.” –Jackie Calmes