Question : Is Iraq USA's "Afghanistan" ?

Everybody knows that the Soviet debacle in Afghanistan was one of the major triggers that made the collapse of the communist system possible...

Imagine a situation (quite probable) where the Iraqi adventure ends up in a complete destabilization in the ME (signs finns already in Jordan, Palestine, Israel, Lebanon etc.. see http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HF13Ak03.html) and the US is forced to retreat, hopefully before being militarily thrown out, but in a way that will be extremely HUMILIATING (or at least perceived like that).

A lot of dirty laundry will be then probably washed in the US and the Bush administration (or part of it) maybe prosecuted... Generals sent to early retirement....

Would such a situation induce a new era, a new American approach to its own institutions, Allies and the rest of the world ? for the better or for the worse ? Will a "Chavez type" be elected next president ? Or is a coup possible ?

The way the system is set up almost automatically means change is impossible. Slow evolution, not rapid change, even good rapid change. You can only vote between one party that supported war completely and one party that doesn't know what it wants when it comes to war, and then you have ordinary people who don't want war at all.

Those are not good choices for people in such a restricted system. This is why I believe the system would sooner break down than bow to the will of people. It took decades just to get the government to recognize the people's right to form trade unions. It's going to take as long to clean out the government of the corporate element, but I doubt that's possible given the election system is privatized where corporate money dominates.

It is like a hurricane with the levees in New Orleans. The system restricts the flow of water, a force of nature. The will of the people is like an ocean, and when it becomes enraged, things can break, and it sweeps away the levees. One day, it will be broken. If the sun rises and sets, so too do governments.

it took time in the old Soviet too, one and a half decade it you count from the fall of the wall. There were attemps to reverse to the old order, even by force. And today's Russia is far from being an "old" European democracy. The question is if the Iraq war will trigger such a change in the US, assuming there are other major factors playing in like oil prices, increasing poverty, collapse of the dollar... maybe I should have been more specific...

Then will the pattern be an evolution towards a more parliamentary European system, a multilateral humanitarian approach ("UNs best buddy") or a return to a religious autarcy, without the means to wage war and an increased isolation... ?

To do such a thing would require a constitutional amendment if not several amendments, but amending the constitution is very, very difficult. If you speak of systems such as proportional representation instead of our current system of single-seat representation, you speak of a system that could easily destroy the hold the two entrenched political parties have on this country.

Democrat or Republican leaders would not introduce amendments that would jeopardize their very grip on power. That's the problem with our system. You are forced into voting for one of the two entrenched political parties even if you don't like the choices. This country's direction is dictated by people who have no interest in change if it means removing one or both of the political parties from power.