A Quick Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Eliminating Saddam's WMD.

According to the Dulfer report Saddam DID HAVE WMD's.

http://www.cia.gov/cia/reports/iraq_wmd_2004/chap5_annxF.html


Specifically, we found exactly 53 degraded chemical shells left over from pre-1991 Iran-Iraq war stocks:

"Beginning in May 2004, ISG recovered a series of chemical weapons from Coalition military units and other sources. A total of 53 munitions have been recovered, all of which appear to have been part of pre-1991 Gulf war stocks based on their physical condition and residual components."


Colin Powell's estimate from the speech at the United Nations was enough chemical weapons material stockpiled for 16,000 artillary shells:

5 Feb 2003
"Our conservative estimate is that Iraq today has a stockpile of between 100 and 500 tons of chemical weapons agent. That is enough agent to fill 16,000 battlefield rockets."

The war has cost us 2,500 American lives, 18,500 wounded troops, roughly 320 billion dollars in appropriations and by conservative estimates some 40,000 Iraqi dead.


Let's do some basic math shall we.

Bush Administration estimated benefits on 16,000 shells worth of Chem weapons ("massive stockpiles"):
16,000/2,500 killed in action = 6.4 WMD's per dead soldier
16,000/18,5000 wounded in action = .86 WMD's per wounded soldier
16,000/320 billion dollars = .00000005 WMD's per tax dollar
16,000/40,000 Iraqi's killed = .4 WMD's per dead Iraqi


Actual benefits based on 53 chemical shells recovered (few old misplaced munitions):
53/2,500 killed in action = .02 WDM's per dead soldier
53/18,5000 wounded in action = .0028 WMD's per wounded soldier
53/320 billion dollars = .0000000002 WMD's per tax dollar
53/40,000 Iraqi's killed = .001 WMD per dead Iraqi

OR

Bush Administration estimated costs on 16,000 shells worth of Chem weapons ("massive stockpiles"):
2,500 killed in action/16,000 = .16 dead soldiers per WMD
18,5000 wounded in action/16,000 = 1.16 wounded soldiers per WMD
320 billion dollars/16,000 = 20,000,000 tax dollars per WMD
40,000 Iraqi's killed/16,000 = 2.5 dead Iraqi per WMD


Actual costs based on 53 chemical shells recovered (few old misplaced munitions):
2,500 killed in action/53 = 47.17 dead soldiers per WMD
18,5000 wounded in action/53 = 349 wounded soldiers per WMD
320 billion dollars/53 = 6,037,735,000 tax dollars per WMD
40,000 Iraqi's killed/53 = 754 dead Iraqis per WMD

Quite a staggering difference IMO.

He is bankrupting the country, ruining our credibility and reputation around the world, and dividing us as never before. Energy costs have gone through the roof, we're being spied on in the name of our own security, law enforcement can now just enter our homes unannounced without notice whenever they want to...

Sounds to me like the terrorists have already won.

I guess with it sitting at zero there is little point in doing the math on that one.

Welcome to the United States of Halliburton everyone!

I like it, but i think you might want to take the reciprocal of all these. The >1 type number provide an index that's easier for most people to internalize.

As an example, 320 billion dollars divided by 16,000 or 53 would be $2 million per WMD or $6 BILLION per WMD.

Just a thought.
The Professor

I hate math.

You don't hate math as much as you think.

If you were able to deal with the abstraction of numbers with 5 zeroes to the right of the decimal point, you're pretty good! It's a big part of my job to deal with that sort of thing, but most people deal with big numbers better than tiny ones.
The Professor

added the reciprocals. You are right that these are more understandable to most.

how many dollars = 1 chemical shell removed

This would be better for the average joe to understand.

Remember americans suck at math. So it would be better one chemical shell removed cost the taxpayers X amount.



I'm sure as a taxpayer it would be a figure not worth it. Money better used elsewhere.

What a bargain!

PER VIRTUALLY USELESS, 20 YEAR OLD, CHEMICAL SHELL.

HELL SADDAM PROBABLY DIDN'T EVEN REALIZE HE STILL HAD THE 53.

So much for "massing" weapons to use against us and our allies.

and the Baathists 1 billion to split among themselves to leave the country. I be they would have taken it.

of pulling Saddam's raggedy head out of a spider hole. Or the wonderful warm feeling that viewing the Abu Ghraib photos gave us all! That's worth a few hundred billion, ain't it? :sarcasm:

Of course that would not have generated any private corporate profits.

Maybe we should have just handed the cash directly to the oil companies, war profiteers and mercenaries outright and left the bombing, invading and occupying right out of the equation. Skip the middle man.

:dunce:and the sixty million dumbasses who voted for Chimpy in 2004.

As Gore Vidal would say, "The United States of Amnesia". :dunce: x 60 million.

For another thing, this accounting doesn't measure all the goodwill America has generated for al-Qaeda and their associated losers by basically illustrating bin Laden's thesis and fulfilling his predictions of American imperialism in the Mid East.

Finally, you're ignoring the fact that I'm helping to pay for all the madness. You can make as much fun of Halliburton as you want, don't forget that my tax dollars are going into their coffers. God I hate reality.

Depressing.

Thanks for another great post!

:thumbsup:



Edit: K, R & booked.

The greedy just never know when to quit.