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I would even argue that a temporary stabilization in gas prices has caused his temporary stabilization in the polls.
I underlying dynamics as you have set forth would indicate a resumed drop. I expect it soon, and to continue, with possible occasional blips, because the underlying dynamics of the forces that the Bush Administration has set loose--and perhaps even more importantly, the underlying dynamics of the forces that the Bush Administration has ignored--are beginning to have more and more effect.
Bush and the neocons respond with more rhetoric and photo ops, and continue to ignore the underlying problems. ("Republicans don't do substance; they do strategy.") Therefore the underlying problems get worse and worse, and everybody pays eventually, but those who are insulated by wealth don't feel it as soon. Therefore they don't even perceive anything as being fundamentally wrong, and work out more strategy based on rhetoric and photo ops.
But the rhetoric gets wilder and wilder, and the photo ops wear thinner and thinner, and become more obviously staged, and the cycle continues.
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