Ernesto Discussion #9

Unless I am mistaken, this projection at 120hrs puts the storm at about New Orleans

28N 087W

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2006


on a mission that featured a satcom failure...an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft reported that the center of Ernesto was
well east-northeast of the intermediate advisory position. How
much of this is due to re-formation of the center and how much is
due to an actual track change is unclear. The aircraft reported a
central pressure of 997 mb...and a dropwindsonde northeast of the
center showed that the maximum winds have increased to at least 50
kt. While the re-formation puts the center closer to the
convection...Ernesto is still encountering notable westerly to
southwesterly vertical wind shear.

The initial motion is a very uncertain 295/11. While the overall
synoptic pattern is unchanged from the previous advisory...the
reformation of the center requires shifting the first 72 hr of the
track about 50 N mi northeast of the previous track. This
increases the threat to Haiti...the Dominican Republic...Cuba...and
the Florida Keys. It should be noted that the GFS solution of
bringing the low-level center of Ernesto to South Florida looks
dubious...as the 500 mb center stays well to the south over Cuba.
After 72 hr...the large-scale models are coming into better
agreement that the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will be
broken by a shortwave trough moving southeastward from the
Mississippi Valley into the southeastern states. This should allow
Ernesto to turn northward over the central or eastern Gulf of
Mexico...although there are still differences in speed between the
slower UKMET and ECMWF and the faster NOGAPS. The latter part of
the forecast track calls for a gradual turn toward the north at a
slow speed...similar to but east of the previous forecast. More
adjustments of the forecast track may necessary on the next
advisory depending on any new jumps in the center position tonight.


The large-scale models continue to forecast the development of a
large upper-level anticyclone along the forecast track...although
so far they have been too fast in doing so. If the models are
correct...the shear should diminish during the next 12-24 hr and
allow Ernesto to strengthen. The intensity forecast calls for slow
strengthening during the first 24 hr...and steady strengthening
thereafter. The intensity forecast calls for Ernesto to reach 105
kt intensity in 120 hr...slightly stronger than the SHIPS model...
and the storm could get stronger than that. One potential problem
with the intensity forecast is interaction with land...as Ernesto
might not strengthen as much as forecast if it gets too close to
Hispaniola or Cuba.


In summary...Ernesto could become a potentially dangerous hurricane
as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of this system.


Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 26/2100z 15.9n 71.6w 50 kt
12hr VT 27/0600z 16.8n 73.3w 50 kt
24hr VT 27/1800z 18.1n 75.4w 60 kt
36hr VT 28/0600z 19.4n 77.6w 70 kt
48hr VT 28/1800z 20.8n 79.8w 80 kt
72hr VT 29/1800z 23.5n 83.5w 85 kt
96hr VT 30/1800z 25.5n 86.0w 95 kt
120hr VT 31/1800z 28.0n 87.0w 105 kt


$$
forecaster Beven

...are some of the best that America has to offer. Look for more discussion from Dr. Lixion Avila in the next update. Kudos once again to retiring Director Max Mayfield and his entire staff. They work tirelessly to provide the best information on approaching cyclones.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutstaff.shtml

The NHC is taxpayer money well spent!

I do have some concerns about Dr. Mayfield's replacement. Somehow, I get the feeling that a Bush appointee's predictions will somehow be just a little less accurate and honest than Dr. Mayfield's. :(

the Mississippi Gulf Coast. These models change every few hours. Preparedness, not panic is what is needed at this time.

IANAM but it looks like the center keeps reforming and jettisoning convection on the storm's leeward side. Now if my ass knows what I'm talking out of it, that's normal occasionally (due to wind sheer) but it seems to be happenning frequently and with a lot of magnitude.

The 8PM intermediate advisory put winds at 60mph, pressure steady at 997.

they are wording things very carefully there.

000
WTNT35 KNHC 270256
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.7 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
285 MILES...455 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL PASS NEAR
WESTERN HAITI AND JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO MAY
PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
********************************************************************
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006

THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
UNCHANGED AT 997 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE
MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KT. SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS
EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A
FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY
INFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...THE
VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE
TOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. AFTER REACHING
THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS
SLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST
AS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR
EAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE
NOGAPS. IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
HAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.

A SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA. IF THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN
SUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW. HOWEVER...IF
THE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE
TIME OVER CUBA. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS
ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO
COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.8N 72.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 74.2W 55 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 19.2N 76.3W 65 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 20.5N 78.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 21.8N 80.6W 85 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 24.0N 84.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

NNNN
********************************************************************
Next one will be at 0200 ET:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

Remember Charley? So far same path.

pair is NO

Jamaica, I called the sibbling in Florida. NOAA agrees.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/091228.shtml?5day

And remember Charley all to well. Looks like Ernesto is going to keep the memory fresh. :scared:

he Hurricane Hunters left Ernesto at 7:30pm EDT this evening, and found that the center had jumped about 50 miles east-northeast of the previous center. This sort of center reformation is common in strengthening tropical storms subject to significant wind shear, and we should not be surprised if another center shift occurs before the shear finally starts to decrease Sunday afternoon.

The new center position is bad news for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, which will now be subject to torrential flooding rains. Considerable loss of life may occur in Haiti, where deforestation will allow flood waters to rampage unchecked down the barren hillsides of the nation's rugged terrain. The new center position is also bad news for Cuba, whose entire length will now get a pounding from Ernesto.

The new center position is good news for the U.S., since Ernesto's closer approach to Cuba and Hispanolia will keep the storm weaker than it otherwise would have been. In the past few hours, the cloud pattern on infrared satellite imagery has gotten more fragmented, which may be due to storm starting to struggle due to interaction with the island of Hispanolia. It could also be a temporary adjustment due to reorganization of the storm around the new center, or an increase in wind shear, which is still a substatntial 15-20 knots.

The forecast
The new set of model runs show more agreement that Ernesto will make it to the Gulf Coast by Friday as a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane. All four major global models are forecasting a landfall between Louisiana and Key West by the end of the week, so the threat to Texas appears lower now. It is still possible that Ernesto could stall shortly before landfall and assume an unpredictable path, however. The GFS solution of bringing Ernesto over Key West and inland farther north near Tampa appears unrealistic, due to the failure of the model to put the surface center in the same place as the center at mid levels of the atmosphere.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=483&tstamp=200608

Heard it on The Weather Channel.

89.8F reported at Buoy 42003 at 1750L. (This buoy is dead center in the projected path).

Buoy data here: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

That's just about the temperature the Gulf was when Katrina moved through. :scared:

...nt

Station 42003 (260 miles south of Panama City) shows a water temp of 88.7 degrees.

Station @ Pensacola has water temp at 89 degrees.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

For Western Gulf:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/WestGulf.shtml

Handy sites to find current water temps.

I know we all worry about N.O. (even though coastal Mississippi was far more devastated (and far more people lost their homes and died than N.O.) from Katrina (ie, Waveland, Bay St Louis, Pass Christian, Long Beach, Gulfport, Biloxi, Pascagoula) - anyway, right now the track is very similar to Ivan from Sept. '04:



See the Florida panhandle right above the estimated eye position? That's 3 states away from Louisiana (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, the Louisiana moving from East-West).

Also the NHC 5 day cone puts it right under the Florida-Alabama line next Thursday (same as the Ivan track):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5+gif/204939W_sm.gif

Naturally, just because we (Pensacola) are in the crosshairs of the cone doesn't mean it could well hit either far off the East or West of us. And of course this track WILL change as the storm enters the Gulf. But for now, this is very much like Ivan.

They better be wishing, hoping, and praying....real hard.....

and come ashore near the Alabama/Florida coast as Ivan did and then head toward northwards thru Montgomery and towards Atlanta. Ivan was in 2004, if noone remembers, but I sure do -- no power for 2 weeks in my house and trees down blocking the street for up to a month when I lived in the capital of the Most Serene Christian Republic of Alabama before fleeing to safety in Tennessee...

...was further west, much closer to Mobile. It jogged eastward at the last minute--much as Hurricane Dennis would do the next year--and gave Pensacola the big punch.

By the current projections, which are really too far away to be incredibly accurate, Ernesto would make landfall on Pensacola Bay or even further east.

However, the 0500 update shows a similar track to Charley, however, once again, this is a long range forecast with low confidence.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5+gif/091228W_sm.gif